SERBIA: PATRIARCH PAVLE PASSES AWAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001356

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KIRF PHUM PGOV PREL SR KV
SUBJECT: SERBIA: PATRIARCH PAVLE PASSES AWAY

REF: 08 BELGRADE 1217; BELGRADE 217; BELGRADE 1080; BELGRADE 467
SARAJEVO 951; 07 BELGRADE 1560

Summary
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1. (SBU) Patriarch Pavle, the revered 95-year old head of the
Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC),passed away in his sleep on November

15. His death after more than two years of hospitalization triggered
an outpouring of emotion, and the government announced three days of
mourning to be followed by Pavle's November 19 funeral at the
Rakovica Monastery near Belgrade. The Patriarch's death also set in
motion complex procedures for the election of his successor, which
likely will occur within the next two months. Although there already
are clearly identifiable frontrunners, we anticipate that fierce
lobbying will commence once the Patriarch is laid to rest. End
Summary.

"Walking Saint" To Be Buried in Belgrade
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2. (U) Born Gojko Stojcevic in a working-class family in Slavonija
(modern-day Croatia) in 1914, Pavle endured a difficult childhood in
which he lost both his parents. After working briefly in
construction following World War II, he took his monastic vow in 1946
and progressed through the Church ranks. In 1957, the SOC Holy
Assembly of Bishops (Sabor) elected Archimandrite Pavle as Bishop of
Raska and Prizren, a diocese that includes parts of Kosovo. While
serving in this capacity until 1990, Pavle called attention to the
plight of Orthodox Serb believers in Kosovo.

3. (SBU) In December 1990, Pavle was chosen as the 44th Patriarch
of the SOC, replacing Patriarch German just days before Slobodan
Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) came to power in
parliamentary elections. Although he spoke out against the
devastating effects of the Balkan wars on the people, Pavle initially
did not clearly distance himself and the Church from the Milosevic
regime and also traveled to Republika Srpska to support the Bosnian
Serb leadership, where Radovan Karadzic was photographed kissing
Pavle's ring. He later waived Church "neutrality," participated in
anti-government protests in 1997 and called for Milosevic to resign
in 2000.

4. (SBU) Despite his extended hospitalization since 2007, which
removed him from the public eye and reduced his Church role to that
of figurehead, Pavle's death sparked an outpouring of emotion. The
government announced a three-day mourning period beginning on
November 16, and the parliament canceled its session scheduled for
November 19. Thousands of citizens stood in line outside the
Cathedral Church in Belgrade, including through the night, to pay
their last respects to the man sometimes referred to as the "walking
saint" because of his humility and adherence to the monastic life.
Amfilohije Caretaker Until "Hand of God" Election
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5. (U) At an emergency session observed by President Tadic on
November 15, the five-member Holy Synod, or church government,
appointed its current head, Metropolitan Amfilohije of Montenegro and
the Coastlands, as "caretaker of the Patriarchal throne" and formed a
committee, consisting of the Synod, clergy, and five government
representatives, to oversee funeral arrangements. In accordance with
Patriarch Pavle's explicit wishes, he will be buried at the Rakovica
Monastery near Belgrade, while the funeral service will take place at
Belgrade's Saint Sava Church.


6. (U) Under the Church constitution, the Holy Synod is
responsible for informing its clergy and followers that the Patriarch
has "presented himself to God," which signals the start of the
process of identifying his successor. Although the constitution
allots 90 days for the election of a new Patriarch, the Synod has
declared 40 days of mourning and will not conduct an election before
this period passes.


7. (U) Current election procedures, which may come under challenge
as part of the "election campaign," are complicated. Only bishops
who have served five years or more in that capacity have the right to
vote or be nominated, and their role is to identify three "finalists"
through repeated rounds of elimination voting. The final choice
among the three candidates selected by the bishops is a "blind draw"
in which an abbot from one of Orthodoxy's major monasteries,
representing the "hand of God," chooses the Patriarch by selecting
one of three sealed envelopes containing the candidates' names. The
new Patriarch typically is enthroned in the Cathedral Church in

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Belgrade the day after his election, while the final enthroning
ceremony takes place in the old seat of the Serbian Orthodox Church
in Pec Patriarchy (Kosovo).

Possible Successors
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8. (SBU) Given the Patriarch's extended illness, during which the
Sabor denied his October 2008 request to relinquish his position (Ref
A),there has been much speculation about his successor and the topic
has dominated recent Sabor sessions. As many as 10 names have figured
prominently in press reports, and speculation - and jockeying for
position among contenders - likely will increase exponentially in the
weeks ahead.


9. (SBU) Most analysts believe that the current front-runner
remains Metropolitan Amfilohije, due to his prominent role in the
day-to-day activities of the Church. While unpalatable to Western
ears, his recent ill-advised stances on the anti-discrimination law,
the cancelled Pride Parade (Refs B and C),and opposition to the
Vojovodina Statute are unlikely to hurt his support within the SOC.
Two other highly influential bishops - Bishop Irinej of Backa, Synod
member and spokesperson, and Bishop Hrizostom of Zica - also are
considered serious candidates from the old guard. Irinej is
considered more ecumenical and thoughtful than Amfilohije. Hrizostom
previously administered the U.S. West Coast bishopric, but those
familiar with him are impressed by how little an impression life in
California seems to have made on him.


10. (SBU) A second group of potential successors consists of bishops
aged 41 to 54 who are seen in some circles as unburdened by history
and able to revitalize the Church. Bishop Grigorije of Zahumlje and
Herzegovina, bolstered by his May election to the Synod (Refs D and
E) and reportedly enjoying support from close ties with Republika
Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, in particular appears to be a
candidate on the rise. Bishop Fotije of Dalmatia, also selected to
the Synod in May 2009, Bishop Joanikije of Budim and Niksic, and
Bishop Ignatije of Pozarevac and Branicevo also are members of this
group.


11. (SBU) Seventy-eight-year old Bishop Irinej of Nis, vicar to
Patriarch German and a Synod member since May 2009, and Bishop Jefrem
of Banja Luka, who likely would enjoy support of the "Bosnian lobby,"
are seen as potential compromise candidates.

Comment
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12. (SBU) Beloved by the Serbian Orthodox faithful for his
humility and wisdom, Pavle left a legacy that is open to some
interpretation. His passing may be a blessing in disguise as it
provides a much-needed opportunity for the SOC to address the
Church's role in 21st century Serbia. A new Patriarch may be able to
revitalize the Church, although it will be a challenge to emerge
unscathed from the bruising battle for succession. End Comment.
BRUSH