THE SHIFT IN PUBLIC DISCOURSE: IS SERBIA BECOMING MORE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 001166

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE
EUR/PPD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SCUL PGOV KPAO SR
SUBJECT: THE SHIFT IN PUBLIC DISCOURSE: IS SERBIA BECOMING MORE
EUROPEAN?

REF: BELGRADE 1080

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) A series of traumatic events in Serbia in recent weeks,
including the cancellation of a Pride Parade and the brutal murder of
a French tourist, has prompted a new level of introspection among the
Serbian public regarding shared values and the country's
Euro-Atlantic orientation. Despite the current political fling with
Russia, most Serbs long for better relations with the United States,
identify with Europe, and are tired of being viewed as "Balkan
Beasts." Instead of focusing on familiar themes such as Kosovo and
victimhood, the media and, increasingly, the officials whom they
quote are directly linking recent displays of intolerance and
nationalistic violence to Serbia's role in the events of the 1990s.
While Serbia is still far from a model of a modern liberal democratic
society, this new level of soul-searching signals a tipping point in
its struggle toward normalcy, and a sign of readiness to put the past
behind it. End Summary.

A Time for Reflection
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2. (SBU) Nine years ago this week, a wide alliance of parties
organized mass protests after Slobodan Milosevic disputed the
election victory of opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica. The
next day, Milosevic conceded defeat and stepped down from power.
Throughout the country, Serbs anticipated a rapid transition from the
war and isolation of the 1990s to western stability and prosperity.
But the jubilation of those days gave way to shattered expectations,
personified in the assassination of reformist Prime Minister Zoran
Djindjic in 2003.


2. (SBU) In the years that followed, public and media criticism of
Serbia's continual failures and missed opportunities was largely
upstaged by populist or anti-western rhetoric, numbing coverage of
war crimes trials and, more recently, emotional commentary over
Kosovo's February 2008 Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI),
all of which in turn fed the conservative and ultraconservative
ideologies that further hampered Serbia's social progress.


3. (SBU) Since the May 2008 elections, however, we have seen a
gradual but determined westward shift in editorial policy, and
increased introspection that goes beyond the standard topics of
Kosovo, war crimes, bankruptcy, and corruption. This change is not a
solitary occurrence, but rather the evolutionary consequence of
events that have coaxed or shocked the general population into new
levels of critical self-assessment.

Shift in Views toward the United States
--------------


4. (SBU) Among recent watershed events was Vice President Biden's
May 2009 trip to Belgrade, which prompted a re-examination of
reflexive anti-Americanism in Serbia. This was far more than a visit
by the emissary of a popular new U.S. president. As Senator he had
been among the strongest advocates for the 1999 NATO intervention
that is still resented today; yet here he was in Belgrade, expressing
support for Serbia's future. His visit was followed by a string of
hopeful statements from the Serbian government; and our assistance,
cultural programs, and especially Mil-to-Mil programs began receiving
unusually prominent coverage in the media.


5. (SBU) The appearance of a U.S. Navy band at the politically
conservative and socially traditional Guca trumpet festival, an event
that would have been seen as scandalous even a year ago, yielded an
eruption of positive national media coverage. A joint effort by the
Ohio National Guard and the Serbian army to rebuild a number of
schools and hospitals over the summer similarly produced weeks of
daily good news. For the first time in years, ordinary Serbs were
shown working and even dancing side-by-side with representatives of
the same military that for years was blamed for the most recent of
Serbia's tragedies.

European Values: Tolerance
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6. (SBU) In September the canceled Belgrade Pride Parade (reftel)
sparked unprecedented debate, forcing Serbs to face issues such as
sexual orientation, human rights, intolerance and violence. In the
weeks prior, gay-baiting in the tabloids and disapproval or lukewarm
support by officials and pundits gradually gave way to a more

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balanced discussion in the context of Serbia's European identity.
The media bemoaned intolerance, openly suggesting that Serbia may not
be ready for the European Union. The government formally decided to
support the parade, but then reversed its position at the last minute
in the face of threats by nationalist organizations.


7. (SBU) The decision provoked a strong negative reaction from many
in the public who saw the decision as capitulation. Media declared
that violence had triumphed over democracy and the rule of law. But
rather than silencing discussion of human rights, the Parade's
cancellation led to more support from officials and public figures,
and sustained condemnation of the ultranationalists who still claimed
to rule the streets.

Murder of Frenchman Recalls Violence of the 1990s
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8. (SBU) The September 29 beating death of a French soccer fan who
had been assaulted on September 17 by a group of hooligans in
downtown Belgrade, combined with the fallout from the Pride Parade,
had a sobering effect throughout the country. Thousands of people
waited for hours in long lines to lay flowers and candles at several
locations in Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Pancevo. Mourners, including
state officials, left messages of indignation and frustration that
the actions of a few were leading to the branding of Serbia as
violent.


9. (SBU) Spurred on by the media responses to these recent events,
officials became more outspoken against violence and its tacit
acceptance in Serbia. The climax came from President Tadic on
October 2, when he held a press conference on Belgrade's Trg
Republike and stated, "I see a direct and uninterrupted thread
running from violence during the 1990s, atrocities committed in the
region of the former Yugoslavia, support for the protests of the
Special Operations Unit, political language that whipped up rage
against so-called traitors, to constant hunts for enemies in society.
An atmosphere of hatred against all minorities, against sexual
minorities, against minorities with different views was generated.
That thread is more than obvious and we must not remain silent." The
comment spurred lively discussion. One radio program (B92's
Pescanik),normally critical of the President, devoted an entire
90-minute program to Tadic's statement, suggesting that Serbia had
entered a new era: "One small step for democracy, one giant leap for
President Tadic." The discussion on societal violence was
wide-ranging and drew analogies between recent events and the 2005
Srebrenica massacre in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbian basketball player
Miladin Kovacevic (who fled the United States in 2008 following the
horrific beating of a U.S. college student),Slobodan Milosevic, and
1990s paramilitary leaders such as Arkan, who had lived openly in
Yugoslavia in the 1980s despite being on Interpol's Ten Most Wanted
list.

Serbia's "New" Politicians
--------------


10. (SBU) Democratic leaders are not the only source of this tidal
shift in public statements. Figures who built their names by standing
up to the United States are generating headlines that would have been
unthinkable just a few months ago. During the recent visit of
Aleksandar Vucic, the vice-president of the Serbian Progressive Party
(and former Secretary General of the Serbian Radical Party) to
Washington, the headlines were "Serbia Can't Advance Without America"
(Politika) and "We Need Both the Russians and the Americans" (Kurir).
Speaking of the 1999 NATO intervention in an interview published
October 8 in the daily Alo, Vucic said, "That year cannot be
forgotten, but we have to go forward. Some time has passed, some of
it is history today. But we have kids, a future, and a serious man
has to keep that in mind."


11. (SBU) In discussing the new law on media, Interior Minister
Dacic, who in an earlier life was Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)
spokesman for Slobodan Milosevic, made a clear break with the past,
"I was among the first ones to be black-listed by the EU and the
United States because of the previous Law on Public Information. And
I am still waiting for a visa for my official trip to America even
though I am deputy prime minister. As long as I am its president,
the SPS will not vote for conflict with the media and the
journalists, the cancelling of TV broadcasts of parliamentary
sessions, beating citizens, a return to the majority electoral
system, or wars."

Is NATO the Enemy or the Future?
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12. (SBU) Another milestone was the 10th anniversary of the NATO
bombing of Serbia. Rather than being a focal point for anti-American
rage, it passed without significant demonstrations and appears to
have opened the door for civilized discussion of Serbia's future
relationship with NATO. The issue was once darkly taboo, yet each
month has brought more statements in the media by opinion and policy
makers in support of NATO accession.


13. (SBU) Usually evasive on the subject, Defense Minister Sutanovac
has leaned further forward in every public statement. Noting that
Serbia will soon be surrounded by NATO countries, in Vreme's October
1 issue he said, "What position should we take towards traditionally
friendly countries like Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Spain... from whom
we expect and enjoy strong support, although they are in NATO... I
think that a debate on the matter will be left aside for a while, but
the time will come when we will have to deal with this important
issue." He went on to say that it will take lots of courage "to
explain to the citizens all the benefits of security integration."

Comment
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14. (SBU) The shift in tenor in public discourse in recent weeks has
been palpable. Serbia is known - even among Serbs - for its fixation
with historical narrative and sometimes spiteful determination to act
against its own interests; but public discourse in recent months
shows this stereotype need not be the rule. For our own part, we
have studiously avoided divisive discussions of history and instead
described a positive view of Serbia's future, seeking to acknowledge
examples of success. By removing ourselves as the imagined obstacle
to Serbia's progress while describing a better future in Europe, we
have also helped make it possible for Serbs to begin addressing the
past on their own terms. We intend to focus on the message that the
Charg underscored in an October 7 speech in Kraljevo, that "the U.S.
is dedicated to the idea of helping a democratic and successful
Serbia - a Serbia in which all its citizens cultivate tolerance,
freedom of expression, and creative spirit." End Comment.
BRUSH