SERBIA: UPDATE ON DEFENSE AND SECURITY ISSUES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001112 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SCE (P. PETERSON) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: UPDATE ON DEFENSE AND SECURITY ISSUES REF: BELGRADE 841; BELGRADE 765 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) As the Serbian government begins its second year in office, it is inching closer to NATO at an almost imperceptible rate - naming an ambassador after months of delay and slowly implementing the Security Agreement - while searching for ways to increase its involvement in regional groupings. The military-to-military relationship with the United States remains Serbia's most dynamic bilateral partnership, both on the national level and with the Ohio National Guard. Serbia is also working closely with the State Department and DOE to address the threats posed by landmines, MANPADS, and nuclear materials. End Summary. Approach to NATO -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Although relations with NATO remain a politically sensitive issue with the Serbian public, with support for eventual Serbian membership hovering around 30%, the Serbian government is taking a series of steps to gradually broaden its relationship with the Alliance. Foreign Minister Jeremic formally nominated Branislav Milenkovic, currently the special representative in Brussels, as Serbia's ambassador to NATO in a September 22 letter to NATO Secretary General Rasmussen. Presidential foreign policy advisor Jovan Ratkovic told us on September 14 that President Tadic planned to open Serbia's mission to NATO before the end of the year. ¶3. (SBU) Before the mission can open, however, Serbia must implement the Security Agreement with NATO. MFA NATO Directorate officials confirmed to us on September 24 that they had resolved a dispute with the MOD over control of classified information that had been blocking implementation of the agreement. The government recently created an Office of the National Security Council to serve as the primary registry, and appointed Major Goran Matic as its director. Serbia now has a roadmap in place to complete the remaining implementation steps, including the creation of sub-registers at MOD and MFA. ¶4. (SBU) Serbia is now working on its second Individual Partnership Plan (IPP) with NATO. According to the MFA, because the first IPP was only 20% fulfilled, the Serbian government will be more selective in drafting the next iteration. The Ministry of Defense is currently completing the annual PfP Planning and Review Process (PARP) questionnaire. The MFA reports that Serbia will soon initiate an Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) as the "next logical step" with NATO, building on recent successes such as the MEDCEUR exercise, and may also initiate discussion of a NATO SOFA at the same time. ¶5. (SBU) Head of the MFA's NATO Directorate Milutin Stanojevic told us on September 24 that the GOS was finalizing a letter to NATO Secretary General Rasmussen proposing modifications to the Military-Technical Agreement signed at the end of Kosovo hostilities in 1999 (aka the Kumanovo Agreement). Stanojevic stressed that Serbia would ask for changes to the agreement to reflect the changed security circumstances and its growing partnership with NATO, not the abolition of the agreement. He indicated it might be possible to re-establish contact between the Serbian CHOD and COMKFOR once the proposal has been forwarded. Regional Cooperation -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Serbian government continues to view KFOR as an important guarantor of regional stability, and is concerned about the draw-down process now underway. Stanojevic pressed the issue again on September 24, urging that partners should consider every step carefully and factor in the broader regional context. Despite displeasure that NATO had chosen to involve KFOR in standing up the Kosovo Security Force (KSF),Serbia wants KFOR to stay in Kosovo for the foreseeable future. ¶7. (SBU) In anticipation of eventual EU membership, Serbia is modernizing its bureaucracy to begin focusing on European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). Dejan Hinic, formerly the head of the MFA's Americas Directorate, will soon become the head of an ESDP division within a reorganized "Security Policy Directorate" in the MFA. (The directorate will have three divisions: NATO-PfP, ESDP and PKOs, and arms control. The changes are part of a larger MFA reorganization that must be approved by the Government.) Hinic told us on September 24 that the new focus on ESDP will make additional BELGRADE 00001112 002 OF 002 contributions to PKOs possible; Serbia will soon propose signing a security agreement with the EU to this end. ¶8. (SBU) The Serbian government is also eager to participate more actively in regional groupings such as the Southeast Europe Defense Ministerial (SEDM) and the Adriatic Charter, according to our MFA and MOD contacts. The Serbian government is interested in participating fully in SEDM, but U.S. policy has prevented their membership until there is a clear policy from the Serbian government that would not prevent future Kosovo membership in SEDM. ¶9. (SBU) The primary obstacle to joining the Adriatic Charter is language in the founding document which links membership to eventual NATO membership; the MFA has wondered aloud on several occasions as to whether the USG and other AC members would accept a statement or note by Serbia indicating that joining the group would not commit the government to eventual NATO membership. (The MFA casts this as a legal rather than political issue, referring to the neutrality provision of a 2007 parliamentary resolution. While legal experts tell us that such a resolution is not in fact legally binding, the political dilemma nevertheless exists.) Bilateral Military-to-Military Relations -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Although Serbia's foreign policy is based on four pillars - the EU, the U.S., Russia, and China - its military relationships are almost exclusively with the U.S. and NATO. EUCOM's August 31-September 14 MEDCEUR military medical exercise, hosted by the Serbs in Nis and conducted in the "spirit of PfP," was the latest example of cooperation; it brought in 443 participants from 15 countries. EUCOM officials are in frequent contact with their Serbian counterparts, and PDASD Joseph McMillan led a 14-person delegation to Bilateral Defense Consultations in July in Belgrade. ¶11. (SBU) The Ohio National Guard's State Partnership Program is the most visible part of the bilateral mil-mil relationship. ONG members conducted a series of humanitarian assistance programs in rural areas of Serbia over the summer that garnered enormous amounts of positive press coverage and goodwill. Demining, MANPADS, Non-Proliferation -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Serbia continues to work quietly but steadily with us on a series of projects designed to decrease the risk posed by landmines, MANPADS, and nuclear materials. The U.S. has contributed to humanitarian demining in Serbia since 2002 and is the largest donor. Using $870,000 in 2008 funding and an additional $1 million in 2009 funds from the State Department, the International Trust Fund (ITF) for Humanitarian Demining is carrying out several projects to demine border areas the Milosevic regime mined during the wars of the 1990s. Following completion of three projects currently underway, Serbia will be officially mine free. ¶13. (SBU) Under agreements signed in 2005 and 2008, Serbia agreed to destroy almost 9,000 MANPADS. The first tranche has been destroyed, as has approximately half of the second tranche. Under the second agreement, Serbia will receive $7.528 million from the State Department for the destruction of 3764 SA-7's, doubling of the capacity for large caliber artillery ammunition demilitarization, and physical security upgrades at storage facilities. ¶14. (SBU) The Department of Energy is currently working with the Vinca Nuclear Research Institute on a reactor decommissioning project, which involves the return of spent fuel to Russia with IAEA assistance. Comment -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Although there have been no dramatic breakthroughs there is a new sense of optimism in the defense and security relationship with Serbia, attributable largely to Vice President Biden's meeting with Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac during his May visit to Belgrade (Ref B). The meeting highlighted the central role of our strong military-to-military relationship, while providing political cover to those within the Serbian government who seek Euro-Atlantic integration. One area where we will continue to probe the Serbian government is to find a Modus Vivendi where Serbia can join regional organizations like SEDM and the Adriatic Charter while assuring future Kosovo participation in the same organizations. End Comment. BRUSH