LEBANON: SINIORA URGES U.S. TO ENCOURAGE SYRIA TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000096 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY FOR PARA 9 DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR I/O PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA URGES U.S. TO ENCOURAGE SYRIA TO RETURN TO ARAB FOLD REF: BEIRUT 77 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora in a January 23 meeting with Ambassador urged the new U.S. administration to take a strong role in Middle East peace negotiations. Specifically, he advocated U.S. direct or indirect efforts to encourage the Syrians to "realize it was in their best interests" to participate in Saudi King Abdullah's recently revived Arab Peace Initiative and to return to the Arab fold. Siniora said he had delivered the same message to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, Egyptian Foreign Minister Abu Gheit, and Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa in recent days. Siniora also stressed that the U.S. administration should encourage moderate Arab leaders, whom he assessed had been damaged by previous U.S. policies. The Prime Minister noted the need to "take the arguments away" from Hizballah and described efforts to maintain calm within Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps. Meanwhile, to reassure Lebanese who may not be so eager to see Syria reconciled with the international community, we recommend USG officials continue to convey frequent and strong messages of support for Lebanon's sovereignty and independence. End summary. BOOST ARAB MODERATES, ENCOURAGE SYRIA -------------- ¶2. (C) In a January 23 meeting with the Ambassador, PM Siniora encouraged the new U.S. administration to play a strong role in Arab peace efforts renewed by Saudi King Abdullah during the recent Arab economic summit in Kuwait. The Ambassador relayed President Obama's recent statements regarding the Middle East and noted the appointment of Senator George Mitchell as a special envoy. Siniora agreed that these were positive steps but said that such efforts must continue. Siniora assessed that the Obama administration had a window of opportunity that would last three to six months to make real progress in the region. Siniora urged the new administration to follow a two-pronged path: to encourage Syria to realize it was in its best interests to return to the Arab fold, and to give more recognition to moderate Arab states. In Siniora's opinion, moderate Arab states had been discredited by past U.S. policies. ¶3. (C) Siniora described Saudi King Abdullah's efforts to revitalize the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative during the recent summit in Kuwait as courageous, and said the U.S. could play an important role in encouraging Arab, particularly Syrian, participation in the initiative. He requested direct or indirect U.S. outreach to show Syria that it would be in its best interests to coordinate with the Saudi endeavor. Siniora said that in recent days he had also urged German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, Egyptian Foreign Minister Abu Gheit, and Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa to encourage a Syrian shift. ¶4. (C) Siniora's advisor Roula Noureddine -- quoting information from Saudi Ambassador Khoja -- told the Ambassador before the meeting that King Abdullah would invite Syrian President Bashar Asad to visit Riyadh in the next two weeks. While not directly confirming this information, Siniora said that some camps within the Asad government favored participation in the Arab initiative, while others prefer to remain in the Iranian camp. In Siniora's opinion, King Abdullah sought to return the Arabs to the "driver's seat" on the issue of regional peace, a position that Iran had previously confiscated. Siniora also asked the U.S. to "talk to Qatar," which Siniora said had played an "unacceptable" role in Kuwait. ¶5. (C) In discussing the possibility of continued indirect Syrian-Israeli talks, the Ambassador queried Siniora about the potential for future indirect talks between Lebanon and Israel. Siniora, as he has in the past, rejected this, saying Lebanon was interested in the final result of Israeli-Syrian talks only, a result that would cause Syria to change its behavior in Lebanon and would strengthen its alliances with regional neighbors. Siniora also speculated that if indirect talks between Israel and Syria were renewed, "something will change" regarding Hizballah (implying a positive change). TAKE AWAY HIZBALLAH'S ARGUMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Regarding Hizballah, Siniora said the U.S. administration needed to work to "reduce the group's argument." Citing the border town of Ghajjar, the status of Sheba'a Farms, and continued Israeli overflights, Siniora argued Hizballah was being given "all the arguments." Movement on these issues would put Hizballah on the defensive and force the group to transition into a purely political organization. Siniora opined that U.S. steps against Hizballah had wasted resources and had proved ineffective in the fight against extremism and terrorism. Siniora and Noureddine said that UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon's recent visit to Lebanon, while positive, had achieved no progress on either Ghajjar or Sheba'a. ¶7. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query on the status of the Lebanese Armed Forces/UNIFIL investigation into recent rocket attacks launched from south Lebanon into Israel, Siniora assessed -- citing UNIFIL Commander General Claudio Graziano's public statements -- that the perpetrators of the rocket attacks were professionals. He said the first set of rockets had been intended to reach Israel, while the second set intentionally did not. Siniora said GOL policy will continue to be to stress support for UNSCR 1701 and to encourage cooperation between UNIFIL and LAF forces in southern Lebanon. URGING PALESTINIAN UNITY IN LEBANON -------------- ¶8. (C) Responding to a question from the Ambassador about the current situation in Lebanon's Palestinian camps, Siniora said that "from day one" of fighting in Gaza he had invited Fatah and Hamas representatives to his office to inform them that "if they want to fight with each other, they must fight outside (Lebanon)." Siniora said he had brought both PLO Representative in Lebanon Abbas Zaki and senior Hamas representative Osama Hamdan to his office on several occasions to urge them to maintain calm inside the camps and to display a unified Palestinian stance in Lebanon. (Note: Minister of Education Bahia Hariri told us of similar efforts she had undertaken with Palestinian leaders in Sidon's Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian camp, reftel. End note.) COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Siniora's message on the Saudi initiative to return to the Arab fold was strong. However, given the Lebanese sensitivity that international actors might seek better relations with Damascus at Lebanon's expense, we recommend that the U.S. and other friends of Lebanon continue to voice frequent and strong public reaffirmation of our support for Lebanon's sovereignty as well as strong public support for the Special Triunal, stressing our confidence that this indepenent judicial body will ensure that justice prevails in the assassination of PM Rafiq Hariri and others, no matter where the trail leads. End comment. SISON