NASRALLAH ATTEMPTS TO EASE FEAR, BUT PUBLIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000922 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT PARIS FOR JMILLER USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PTER LE IS SUBJECT: NASRALLAH ATTEMPTS TO EASE FEAR, BUT PUBLIC PERCEPTION HAS A MIND OF ITS OWN Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah asserted Hizballah would take defensive action against Israel, if Lebanon was attacked, and called for national unity in his August 14 speech commemorating the third anniversary of the July 2006 war between Hizballah and Israel. Attendees at the speech included representatives of the parties included in the Hizballah-led March 8 coalition, as well as representatives of President Michel Sleiman, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, and majority Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Embassy contacts called the speech "conciliatory" and striking for not saying anything new. Although Nasrallah sought to assuage concerns of an impending confrontation, the popular perception is that many Lebanese are asking the question of when, not if, the next crisis will emerge either with Israel or between Lebanon's feuding confessional leaders. End summary and comment. THE SPEECH AND ITS AUDIENCE -------------- ¶2. (U) Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah commemorated the end of the July 2006 war in a speech delivered the evening of August 14. Nasrallah, speaking via video-link to the assembled, festival-like crowd gathered in Beirut's southern suburb (the "Dahiyeh"),was applauded every time he spoke of the "victory of the resistance" and the sacrifice of the martyrs, "Lebanese, Palestinian or Syrian." Nasrallah neither confirmed nor denied rumors that Hizballah had enhanced its weapons arsenal since 2006, but directed this statement towards Israel: "...if you (Israel) shell Beirut or the southern suburb, we will shell Tel Aviv." Nasrallah said the Lebanese had two choices: either "capitulate to Israel" or deter Israel by strengthening Lebanon's military power and strength. In addition, he called on Lebanese politicians to cooperate and form a government based on national unity and asserted that Hizballah would participate effectively in it. ¶3. (SBU) The gathered audience for the speech included youth and residents of the Dahiyeh, as well as representatives of Shia and Sunni clergy and political and government leaders. Notably, majority Druze leader Walid Jumblatt sent his son, Taymur, in his stead (one of the Taymur's first public events since his recent return to Lebanon after spending many years in Paris). Taymur was also accompanied by Jumblatt advisor, MP Akram Shuhayyeb. President Michel Sleiman was represented by caretaker Minister of Health Mohammad Khalifeh (a member of opposition-allied Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri's Amal party) and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri was represented by Sunni caretaker Minister of State Khaled Qabbani. Meanwhile Hizballah's Christian ally, Michel Aoun, was represented by his son-in-law, caretaker Minister of Telecommunications Gebran Bassil. THE REACTION -------------- ¶4. (C) A number of embassy contacts told us that Nasrallah's speech was "conciliatory." The speech did not exhibit any new platforms or give indications that Hizballah was preparing for military activity in the near term, they said. Our independent Shia contacts said the speech was noteworthy "for what it did not say." Independent Shia activist Lokman Slim (director of Lebanese NGO Hayya Bina which operates primarily in Shia communities) argued that Nasrallah had effectively declared Hizballah a regional power to be dealt with, independent of the Lebanese government. On the contrary, Simon Karam, a former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington, told us August 17 that Nasrallah effectively "walked the line" between easing the fears of south Lebanon's BEIRUT 00000922 002 OF 002 residents of another war in their neighborhood and demonstrating Hizballah's willingness to stay engaged in the political process of government formation. ¶5. (SBU) Reaction to the speech in the local media focused first, on the presence of Taymur Jumblatt at the event and secondly, on Nasrallah's statements that war was not imminent and the process of government formation was ongoing. In an August 16 statement, Sunni Mufti of Mount Lebanon Mohammad Ali Jouzou expressed concern that the Lebanese people and Hizballah "would pay a heavy price" in the event of a future confrontation with Israel. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Nasrallah's August 14 speech showed no lack of confidence on the part of Hizballah to defend Lebanon against military threat. However, Nasrallah directly sought to tamp down rumors circulating that a confrontation (offensive or defensive) with Israel was on the horizon, particularly after the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (scheduled to end September 19 or 20). Despite Nasrallah's attempts to ease fear, Lebanese public opinion in recent weeks shows signs of continued nervousness. Media reports, corroborated by our contacts, indicate that Sunni families are preparing for some future conflict by storing weapons in homes. Christian communities report intra-confessional clashes between Lebanese Forces and Kataeb supporters in areas such as Koura. There is also ongoing uncertainty following a weapons depot explosion in mid-July in the UN Interim Force in Lebanon's (UNIFIL) area of operation in south Lebanon. The longer the ongoing government formation process takes -- now entering its eighth week of negotiations -- the less faith the public is willing to put in the GOL's ability to defend their interests. SISON