DRUZE COMMUNITY FEEDBACK: ARSLAN ADVISOR ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000913

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
PARIS FOR JMILLER
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SY
SUBJECT: DRUZE COMMUNITY FEEDBACK: ARSLAN ADVISOR ON
JUMBLATT

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) Opposition Druze leader Talal Arslan was not surprised
by majority Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's apparent move away
from the majority March 14 coalition in recent days,
according to Arslan advisor Saleem Hamadeh, although he added
that Jumblatt was still supporting Saad Hariri. Jumblatt was
seeking to repair his historically contentious relationship
with Syria and would only have made his statements with
Syrian concurrence, Hamadeh believed. Arslan's Christian
ally, Michel Aoun, was resisting Arslan's demands for a
cabinet seat for either himself or his party. Once the
cabinet is formed, if Arslan is not offered a seat, he will
reconsider his parliamentary alliance with Aoun. However, on
regional matters, Arslan's group will continue to vote with
the opposition, Hamadeh reported. Jumblatt's statements have
not appeared to hurt his stature in the Druze community, but
Syria and its Lebanese allies are prepared to use Jumblatt's
repositioning for their own gain. End summary and comment.

JUMBLATT COZIES UP TO SYRIA
--------------


2. (C) Opposition Druze leader Talal Arslan's advisor Saleem
Hamadeh told POLOFF August 13 Arslan was "not at all
surprised" that majority Druze leader Walid Jumblatt had
positioned himself away from the majority March 14 coalition,
although Jumblatt was still supporting Saad Hariri, Hamadeh
said. He added that following the May 2008 crisis, Jumblatt
and Arslan reconciled to preserve "the security of the
mountain" (referring to the Druze areas where they both have
constituencies). At that time, Jumblatt confided to Arslan
that he wanted to repair his historically contentious
relationship with the Syrians, which the Syrians once
described to Arslan by saying, "Evil would enter heaven
before Jumblatt would enter Syria!"


3. (C) Hamadeh surmised that Jumblatt only made his
statements on August 2 after the Syrians had agreed to
"entertain" Jumblatt. For Syria, having Jumblatt move away
from March 14 was "enough," even if he did not join the
opposition, he concluded. For Prime Minister-designate Saad
Hariri the worst-case scenario would be if Jumblatt actually
held a meeting with Michel Aoun, he added. Arslan, on the
other hand, maintains a warm, personal relationship with
Syrian President Bashar al-Asad and his family, as does
political ally Suleiman Franjieh, and to a lesser extent
opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun, Hamadeh said.
Jumblatt's closest interlocutor with Syria is caretaker Druze
Minister of Transport and Public Works Ghazi Aridi, a member
of Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party, and not fellow
Druze Wiam Wahhab (who is reputed for his extensive
connections with the Syrian intelligence services),he said.

AOUN BALKS AT ARSLAN'S
DEMAND FOR CABINET SEAT
--------------


4. (C) On cabinet negotiations, Hamadeh said Arslan's
alliance with Christian leader Michel Aoun's parliamentary
bloc could be in jeopardy if Aoun refuses to offer a cabinet
seat to his Druze ally. Arslan, the current caretaker
Minister of Youth and Sport, was insisting that, at a
minimum, at least one of the cabinet seats should be reserved
for his party, if not himself. He proposed Greek Orthodox
party member MP Marwan Abu Fadel, as the preferred choice if
Aoun did not wish to cede one of the opposition's ten cabinet
seats to a Druze. (Note: Hamadeh assumed that the 15-10-5
(majority-opposition-Presidential bloc) cabinet formula
currently being discussed was final. End note.) Jumblatt,
who previously called publicly for Arslan to be given a
cabinet position from the opposition's quota, visited Arslan

BEIRUT 00000913 002 OF 002


the evening of August 10 and reaffirmed that he would support
Arslan for a cabinet seat, Hamadeh reported, but it would be
up to Arslan "to work it out" with Aoun.


5. (C) According to Hamadeh, Aoun was insisting that of the
10 ministers for the opposition, five should be Maronite and
five should be Shia to appease Hizballah, Aoun's larger, more
powerful ally. Hamadeh expected that Aoun would not budge on
his demand that Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri accept
Aoun's son-in-law, caretaker Minister of Telecommunications
Gebran Bassil, as a cabinet minister, but might consider
negotiating the portfolio Bassil could take. (Note: Hariri
is apparently holding to his condition that candidates who
lost their parliamentary electoral races would not be
considered for a cabinet post. Bassil lost his parliamentary
race in Batroun. End note.)

ARSLAN'S PARTY WILL VOTE
WITH HIZBALLAH ON REGIONAL ISSUES
--------------


6. (C) Hamadeh explained that Arslan's party preferred to be
in an "equi-distant" position from others, including allies
Michel Aoun and Hizballah. However, on matters of regional
interest, especially vis-a-vis Israel or security, the party
would vote with the opposition. On domestic issues, the
position would depend on the issue, Hamadeh said.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) There are approximately 150,000 Druze in Lebanon.
Hamadeh argued that because of Jumblatt, the Druze receive
far more attention and importance than their numbers would
otherwise merit. Jumblatt's latest statements have caused a
nervous frenzy for the majority March 14 coalition,
especially PM-designate Hariri, but for the rest of the Druze
and Syria's allies, Jumblatt's machinations increase his
bargaining power. For Arslan, his alliance with the
opposition bloc remains strong, but the relationship with
Michel Aoun is under strain. If Arslan withdraws from Aoun's
parliamentary bloc, Aoun's claims of inclusion with other
Lebanese confessions is diminished -- although not
catastrophic -- without the inclusion of some Druze.

SISON