MARCH 14 TAKES ON WATER AS THE CREW AWAITS THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000910

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SA SY
SUBJECT: MARCH 14 TAKES ON WATER AS THE CREW AWAITS THE
CAPTAIN'S ORDERS

REF: BEIRUT 887

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Kataeb Party leader Amine Gemayel is pushing hard for
two (unspecified) ministerial seats, according to the Hariri
camp. His unhappiness with the cabinet formation process
thus far has led to rumors that he may withdraw from March

14. Meanwhile, March 14 secretariat officials insist it is
up to the Saudis to convince Hariri that keeping the March 14
Coalition together is more important than reveling in the
premiership. Both Hariri and President Michel Sleiman
continue to object to Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel
Aoun's insistence that his son-in-law Gebran Bassil be
included in the next government. End summary.

GEMAYEL TO PART
WAYS WITH MARCH 14?
--------------


2. (C) Kataeb Party leader Amine Gemayel may be the next in
line to part ways with the March 14 Coalition, some fear.
Caretaker Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad Safadi in an
August 13 meeting with the Ambassador and PolOff admitted
that Gemayel's departure was not imminent, but he speculated
the Kataeb leader could leave the alliance within the next
five or six months. Safadi attributed Gemayel's unease to
the general feeling among Lebanon's political class that
Syria's influence in the country was growing, and he
speculated that Gemayel may be adopting a more centrist
position.


3. (C) In a separate meeting with PolChief the same day,
March 14 Secretary General Fares Souaid said March 14's
future depends almost entirely on Prime Minister-designate
Saad Hariri. According to Souaid, if Hariri is not committed
to uniting the coalition, it will almost certainly fall
apart. Hariri plans to hold a low-profile meeting at his
home tomorrow night with Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir
Geagea, March 14th figure Samir Frangieh, caretaker Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora, and Souaid to plan the coalition's
next steps. Souaid said Gemayel, who has met with both
Syrian-linked Wiam Wahhab and Marada head Sleiman Franjieh in
the last week, had purposely not been asked to attend the
meeting. Souaid argued that despite this snub, Gemayel is
unlikely to leave March 14 because independently he cannot
compete with Geagea and he craves cabinet positions promised
him by the coalition. The primary goal of tomorrow's
meeting, according to Souaid, will be reassure an
increasingly anxious Geagea (who has been out of the country)
that Hariri is invested in March 14 and to clarify that
Hariri will not "sell the heads of the March 14 Christians"
to Syria as part of Syrian-Saudi rapprochement. According to
Nader Hariri, however, Amine Gemayel is insisting on two
(unspecified) ministerial portfolios for Kataeb that Saad is
not willing to give. Amine's insistence on "an active
presence" translates into a desire for more cabinet positions
than appropriate for the five-MP Kataeb bloc.


4. (U) For his part, Gemayel reiterated in a press conference
today his support for Saad Hariri and his opposition to
reopening the 15-10-5 cabinet formula. He underscored that
in his meetings with Frangieh and Wahhab he expressed his
desire for good relations with Syria as expressed through the
Lebanese state. In addition, he called on the Syrian
government to address all outstanding issues between it and
Lebanon, such as Lebanese detainees, border demarcation, and
armed rejectionist Palestinian groups. (Note: We will be
meeting with Gemayel Augsut 14. End note.)

MARCH 14 COALITION CONCERNED
--------------

BEIRUT 00000910 002 OF 002




5. (C) Meanwhile, Geagea is concerned that Hariri is
neglecting the coalition as he assumes his new role as Prime
Minister, according to Souaid. Hariri reportedly failed to
telephone Geagea while both were vacationing in France last
week and when Geagea attempted to telephone Hariri, the
latter refused the call, upsetting the LF leader. Souaid
said that Geagea is eager to preserve the coalitio and
performed admirably following Walid Jumblat's inflammatory
remarks, but he knows he cannot mintain the coalition
without Hariri. Souaid observed Hariri should learn from his
father, who succeeded because he knew that "in Lebanon,
relationships are more important than ideas."


6. (C) Souaid insisted it is up to the Saudis to convince
Hariri that the March 14 coalition is more important than the
premiership. If Hariri allows the coalition to disintegrate,
he will have no parliamentary majority and will allow the
Syrians to "put Lebanon under their thumb," as when Rafiq
Hariri assumed the premiership in 1992. Instead, Souaid
assessed, Hariri should seek to build a strong coalition such
as the one that coalesced in the aftermath of his father's
assassination in 2005. "No matter how much money Saad has,"
observed Souaid, "he will be nothing without allies."

AOUN REMAINS THE PERENNIAL
THORN IN EVERYONE'S SIDE
--------------


7. (C) Having met with Hariri the evening before, Safadi
believed Hariri was "comfortable" with the current status of
cabinet negotiations. He also said both Hariri and President
Michel Sleiman continued to object to Free Patriotic Movement
(FPM) leader Michel Aoun's insistence that his son-in-law
caretaker Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil be
included in the next government. Safadi said that he was
encouraging Hariri to secure the Ministry of Energy and Water
for March 14 and that he had requested to stay on as head of
the Ministry of Economy and Trade. He mused that he would
welcome the opportunity to become the next Minister of
Foreign Affairs, although he admitted it would be unlikely
for Hizballah and its allies to relinquish the portfolio.
Although he was optimistic about the prospects for Hariri's
success, Safadi was worried that the failure to agree upon a
cabinet by the beginning of Ramadan would be disastrous.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (U) Given the protracted cabinet formation process, Saad
Hariri nonetheless remains stoic, telling the media this
evening that "the difficulties that we are facing regarding
the names of ministers and their portfolios are normal and
can be solved through dialogue." End comment.

SISON