LEBANON: RIVALRY WITHIN THE PLO, PM'S LIAISON SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000088 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: RIVALRY WITHIN THE PLO, PM'S LIAISON SAYS REF: A. BEIRUT 0078 ¶B. BEIRUT 0039 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Highlighting that the Palestinian camps in Lebanon are "calm for now," the GOL's chief liaison for Palestinian issues, President of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee (LPDC) Khalil Makkawi, stressed that PM Sinoria had done a good job communicating with Palestinians during the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza. He reflected that Palestinians in Lebanon remained calm because they understand the sensitivity of the Lebanese population to the camps in Lebanon, particularly after Nahr al-Barid. Makkawi confided there is a simmering power struggle within the PLO in Lebanon which Palestinian Authority President Abbas has not dealt with. ¶2. (C) Makkawi mentioned that, because he wanted to "preempt" political party discussions before the June parliamentary elections in Lebanon, the LPDC will soon convene two workshops with all political parties to open a dialogue and urge parties not to make Palestinian matters a campaign issue. End summary LET'S NOT LOSE WHAT WE HAVE -------------- ¶3. (C) DCM, accompanied by PolMilOff, met LPDC President Khalil Makkawi at his office January 22. He stated finding a solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict was critical to Lebanon's future. On GOL reaction to Gaza, Makkawi praised PM Siniora for a good job communicating to Palestinians in Lebanon a "clear signal" that the camps must remain calm. He said that Siniora acted quickly to convene a meeting at the Grand Serail of all Palestinian factions, including Hamas, early in the Gaza crisis to ask for restraint. ¶4. (C) He said that "now" the camps are quiet and should remain so because Palestinian leadership was sensitive to the risks of tension in the camps, particularly following the 2007 conflict in Nahr al-Barid camp. He stressed that despite the antagonistic Hamas-PLO relations in Gaza, relations among Palestinian groups in the camps were stable and Hamas-PLO disputes would not spill over to Lebanon. However, in a separate meeting January 21, March 14 leader Saad Hariri told the Ambassador he was worried that the PFLP-GC, with help from Iran, would use discontent in the camps to create an "intifada" against Fatah (septel). ROCKETS INTO ISRAEL: SYRIA PLAYED A ROLE -------------- ¶5. (C) Like others have, Makkawi speculated that the Palestinian Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) might have fired the several rockets into Israel on January 8 and 14, but he said "I'm confident" it could not have happened without Syrian knowledge. He added the Syrians always think they are "the guardians" of the region and are "full of "self-importance." The Syrian government uses events like the Gaza conflict to strengthen its position vis-a-vis its people, he claimed. ¶6. (C) He assessed that the Israelis, based on their relatively restrained response to the rockets, might have concluded that the rockets from Lebanon were instigated by "outsiders", not Lebanese. With a more harsh response, all sides could have been drawn into a Syrian "trap" he cautioned. TROUBLE IN THE RANKS -------------- ¶7. (C) Speaking on the January 19-20 Kuwaiti-hosted Arab summit, in which President Sleiman participated, Makkawi concluded the rapproachment made during the talks could be BEIRUT 00000088 002 OF 002 helpful in bringing about a regional peace, but only time will tell. ¶8. (C) He noted that within the PLO in Lebanon, there was a simmering power struggle between the PLO representative in Lebanon, Abbas Zaki, and the commander of Fatah in Lebanon, Brigadier Sultan Abu al-Aynayn. Makkawi noted that the conflict continues because PLO President Mahmoud Abbas knows al-Aynayn could cause trouble in the camps, and Abbas will not speak up against him. He reflected on all the recent events, saying, he was "curious" to see how the "Palestinian house" in Lebanon would organize itself. ELECTIONS IN ISRAEL AND LEBANON -------------- ¶9. (C) Makkawi worried over the February Israeli elections. He believed the election of opposition candidate, Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister could be very detrimental to progress on peace talks between Israel and the PLO. He stated future peace talks depend on the roles Israel, Syria, Iran and the U.S. decide to play. He added, the new Obama administration's engagement was "critical," because so much was at stake in the region. 10 (C) Remarking on the upcoming June parliamentary elections in Lebanon, Makkawi assessed the results will depend on the Christians vote, especially the Maronites. Concerning the aspect of expatriates returning to vote, Makkawi said it was unclear how many could get to Lebanon to vote in a one day election period. Previously, they may have had more impact, especially in the Christian districts, because the election period was spread over many days. ¶11. (C) The LPDC wants to take a proactive stance in addressing Palestinian issues with all Lebanese political parties, Makkawi noted, and thus the LPDC will convene two "workshops," one in March and one in April, he said. The workshops are intended to "preempt" the use of the Palestinian presence in Lebanon in the election. He hopes to force parties to take a stand on this in the campaigning process. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Makkawi's assessment that the Palestinian camps in Lebanon will stay calm post-Gaza crisis was encouraging. He firmly believed that all the key Palestinian groups in Lebanon want to keep the situation in the Palestinian camps calm. His comments on struggles for dominance within the PLO in Lebanon underscore the fragility of good relations among them. End Comment. SISON