PRESIDENT'S CABINET BLOC NEARLY SETTLED, BUT OTHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000868 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN OVP FOR HMUSTAFA PARIS FOR JMILLER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S CABINET BLOC NEARLY SETTLED, BUT OTHER MINISTERS UNDETERMINED Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The President's ministerial bloc will contain five ministers and is nearly decided upon, according to presidential advisor Naji Abi Assi. Negotiation over portfolio distribution continues, but the issue of the blocking third is moot because it has been agreed that no "controversial" decisions will make it to the cabinet without a pre-arranged consensus. Inter-party squabbles over portfolios will slow the process, but we expect the negotiations to move at pace. End summary. PRESIDENTIAL MINISTERIAL BLOC NEARLY SET -------------- ¶2. (C) The President's ministerial bloc will contain five ministers and is nearly decided upon, presidential advisor Naji Abi Assi told PolChief on the evening of July 29. The Shia member, whom Hizballah and Amal acceded to at President Sleiman's suggestion, will be Adnan As-Sayyid Hussein. Mr. Hussein came to the President's attention over the last year as a foreign policy advisor, and Abi Assi described him as "neutral" although his brother is "politically involved" (NFI). The Sunni minister will likely be Adnan Kassar, although Ghalib Mahmasani is still a possibility. (Note: Kassar was previously Minister of Economy and is the current head of Fransabank. Mahmasani is a noted legal expert and currently advises the President on the National Defense Strategy. End note.) Current caretaker Minister of Defense Elias al-Murr and current caretaker Minister of the Interior Ziad Baroud will stay on in their current roles after the President decided that placing a Shia in the Ministry of Defense would send the wrong signals both domestically and internationally. The fifth minister in the President's bloc will be a Greek Catholic, thus far unidentified, although a candidate might "come from Geneva and have a finance background," Abi Assi hinted. AOUN WILL NOT GET INTERIOR MINISTRY -------------- ¶3. (C) Michel Aoun, Abi Assi implied, is pressing for his son-in-law and current caretaker Minister of Telecommunications Gebran Bassil to be Minister of the Interior, but he will fail, predicted Abi Assi. Al-Murr was originally fingered to move to the Ministry of the Interior and Baroud to the Ministry of Justice, but "Hizballah rejected al-Murr in the Ministry of the Interior and Baroud got an A in that position in the last government." On July 30 Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri plans to meet with representatives of Amal and Hizballah to negotiate portfolio distribution. Abi Assi described the Shia parties as negotiating with Hariri and the President on the FPM's behalf and not leaving the party out of the negotiations. ALL CABINET DECISIONS WILL BE BY CONSENSUS -------------- ¶4. (C) The issue of the blocking third is moot, Abi Assi emphasized, because it has been agreed that no "controversial" decisions will make it to the cabinet without a pre-arranged consensus. The President sees his role as that of intermediary, and he will work to prevent any confrontations in the cabinet. The opposition is pressing for the drafting of the ministerial statement now, but that will happen after the portfolios are distributed. The horsetrading over portfolios and ministers will likely be resolved within a few days, he assessed. TALAL ARSLAN NOMINATION BEIRUT 00000868 002 OF 002 SHOWS UP SHIA PARTIES -------------- ¶5. (C) Caretaker Minister of Transport and Public Works Ghazi Aridi said that Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt's proposal that his Druze rival, caretaker Minister of Youth and Sports Talal Arslan, join the cabinet from the opposition's ministerial quota is off the table. The proposal failed, said Aridi, because Hizballah refused to sacrifice one of its two ministerial positions to a Shia from the March 14 coalition. Caretaker Minister for Administrative Reforms Ibrahim Shamseddine had irritated Hizballah in that role, and the party opposed the empowering of Shia voices outside of Hizballah and Amal. Nevertheless, Jumblatt's proposal purposely highlighted Hizballah's unwillingness to compromise, according to Aridi. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The movement on the President's ministerial bloc indicates the progress being made in cabinet formation. Inter-party squabbles over portfolios will slow the process, but we expect the negotiations to move at pace. Stability in the Ministry of Defense will favor USG interests, while the President's intent to make cabinet decisions by consensus will inevitably be tested on the shoals of the Lebanese political milieu. End comment. SISON