COMPROMISE REACHED ON SHIA REPRESENTATION IN NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000850 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN OVP FOR HMUSTAFA PARIS FOR JMILLER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SUBJECT: COMPROMISE REACHED ON SHIA REPRESENTATION IN NEW CABINET Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Denise Herbol for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Advisor to Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, Nader Hariri, confirmed that an agreement has been reached over Shia representation in the presidential bloc in the next cabinet. Hariri emphasized that the consensus candidate would not be a "king minister," but rather a member of the President's ministerial bloc and will be appointed without any conditions from the Shia parties. Nevertheless, the President is expected to hold the decisive vote required for majority cabinet decisions. FPM head Michel Aoun appears to have been kept in the dark about the agreement, and it is unclear if he will assume the role of spoiler. No compromise has been made on portfolio distribution, according to Hariri, although he expects current Minister of Defense Elias al-Murr and Minister of the Interior Ziad Baroud to return in the next cabinet. Other March 14-allied parties are preparing their lists of ministerial candidates. End summary. SHIA PARTIES AGREE TO CABINET COMPROMISE -------------- ¶2. (C) Advisor to PM-designate Saad Hariri, Nader Hariri, confirmed to PolOff on July 28 press reports in the newspaper As-Safir that an agreement has been reached over Shia representation in the presidential bloc of the new cabinet. This position is seen as the key to cabinet formation and is in addition to the other five Shia seats in the 30-member cabinet. Hariri reported that on the evening of July 27, President Sleiman presented the name of Lebanese American University professor Adnan as-Sayyed Hussein to representatives of Amal and Hizballah as a candidate for the Shia representative of the President's ministerial bloc. Both parties agreed to his nomination, and Hariri underscored that PM-designate Hariri "has confidence" in Hussein. ¶3. (C) Hariri emphasized that Hussein would not be a "king minister," but rather a member of the President's ministerial bloc and will be appointed without any conditions from the Shia parties (e.g. that he would refuse to resign in a crisis to hold the PM hostage). This formula is a subterfuge, however, since the result will be the same: a cabinet without an absolute majority (16 ministers) for the March 14 coalition. Although Hariri declined to state that the cabinet distribution will be 15-5-10 (majority-president-opposition),he implied that the PM-designate will be flexible in this negotiation with the President. AOUN OUT OF THE LOOP? -------------- ¶4. (C) On the morning of July 28, MP Alain Aoun told senior political LES that as of the previous evening FPM leader Michel Aoun was not expecting progress on cabinet formation. Aoun emphasized that the FPM had not been informed by its allies of any overnight progress in negotiations, but that an agreement such as the one outlined in the as-Safir account would signal that PM-designate Hariri had accepted the principle of a disguised blocking third. On July 27, Michel Aoun publicly called for proportional representation in the cabinet, six ministerial positions for the FPM, including the Ministry of the Interior. OFF TO THE RACES: PARTIES PREPARE MINISTERIAL CANDIDATES -------------- ¶5. (C) No agreement has been made on portfolio distribution, asserted Nader Hariri, although he insisted that current Minister of Defense Elias al-Murr and Minister of the BEIRUT 00000850 002 OF 002 Interior Ziad Baroud will return in the next cabinet. He did not clarify what portfolios they will hold, however. The PM-designate will negotiate the Sunni member of the President's bloc directly with the President. Hariri would not speculate on the confession or portfolio of a fifth minister in the presidential bloc, should such a position be yielded by the PM-designate to the President. ¶6. (C) In other cabinet formation news, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt reported to us that he will push for opposition-aligned current caretaker Minister of Youth and Sports Talal Arslan to be a minister under the opposition's bloc in exchange for a Shia ministership for the majority. He has previously mentioned current caretaker Minister of Transport Ghazi Aridi as another definite Druze candidate and Major Sharif Fayyad or current caretaker Minister of State without portfolio Wael Abu Faour as other possibilities. (Note: The Druze are allocated three ministerial positions in a thirty-member cabinet. End note.) Samir Geagea confidant Elie Khoury said that the Lebanese Forces will propose four candidates (although they only expect two ministerial positions in the end): Imad Wakim, an engineer, for the Ministry of Public Works; Fadi Saad, a medical doctor, for the Ministry of Health; George Saade, head of the union of secondary teachers, for the Ministry of Education; and Elie Khoury for the Ministry of Economy. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) While the agreement on a Shia minister is the key to cabinet formation in Lebanon's confessional system, it remains to be seen if Aoun will play the role of spoiler. Other Christian interlocutors downplayed his ability to hold the system hostage given his decreased popularity in the June 7 elections, but he remains the Christian leader with the broadest base of support. End comment. HERBOL