LEBANON: MIKATI "CONCERNED" ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000714 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY PARIS FOR RWALLER USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF ECON KPAL KCOR UNSC LE IR SUBJECT: LEBANON: MIKATI "CONCERNED" ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF A HARIRI GOVERNMENT REF: BEIRUT 705 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a June 24 meeting with the Ambassador, former Prime Minister and recently elected MP Najib Mikati worried that if parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri became Prime Minister, he would compromise on economic reform and Hizballah's arms while facing difficulties from Syria. Mikati believed cabinet formation would take time, with the opposition causing problems, and that the best route would be for the new PM to choose a team of technocrats. He affirmed that he would remain independent and not join Hariri's parliamentary bloc. He said the Lebanese want to see improvements in education, electricity, water, and the business environment, and that the U.S. could play a role in some of these areas. ¶2. (C) Mikati said Hizballah's objective is to export its revolution to the West, and it would use the Palestinian issue to justify its existence. He reiterated that Hizballah and the opposition wanted Saad Hariri as PM, because he would allow them to consolidate their position. He praised President Obama's commitment to solving the Arab-Israeli conflict, but complained that no Arab leaders had come forward as a partner following the President's June 4 speech in Cairo. He said events in Iran would result in a weaker Khamenei and a weaker Ahmadinejad, even if they continue to govern, which could have an effect on Hizballah. Mikati was emphatic that Lebanon needed more streamlined decision-making in preparation for its membership on the UN Security Council in 2010. End summary. SUPPORT -- AND CRITICISM -- FOR HARIRI -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/EconOff, called on Najib Mikati in his Beirut office June 24. Mikati, who had been touted before the elections as a possible next Prime Minister, began by expressing his full support for Saad Hariri as the next PM, saying this was "not an issue." He then launched into a long explanation of why Hariri had been excellent as a Majority Leader -- the "guardian of the temple," as Mikati put it -- but that as PM, he suspected he would begin "taking treasures from the temple," i.e. compromising on his principles. Mikati hypothesized that Hariri would rule like his father Rafiq, compromising on economic reform by dividing up the economic pie with political rivals, while letting Hizballah keep its weapons and consolidate its position in Lebanon. In addition, said, Mikati, "Syria will squeeze him to the last drop." He continued, "Saad will be Prime Minister, but it will cost a lot, and I worry we will lose everything we have gained in the past four years." ¶4. (C) Mikati believed government formation would be difficult, with the opposition making demands to stall the process. "They will do something to distract you everyday," he said. The longer the process takes, and the more compromises the opposition extracts, thought Mikati, the more time and space Hizballah will have to build its state within the state. Mikati said the best path Hariri could take to form a government would be to build a team of professionals he can work with. He pointed to current caretaker Interior Minister Ziad Baroud as an example of the type of minister Hariri should assemble, and noted that he himself had formed a successful technocratic government of only 14 ministers during his short stint as PM in 2005. ¶5. (C) Noting that Saad Hariri was having a meeting with MPs at the same time, Mikati affirmed that he would not join BEIRUT 00000714 002 OF 003 Hariri's bloc, as he wished to remain completely independent. (Note: Hariri announced the formation of the "Lebanon First" bloc shortly after the Ambassador's meeting with Mikati. See reftel. End note.) PRIORITIES FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT, POTENTIAL U.S. ROLE -------------- ¶6. (C) Mikati said the Lebanese people want their new government to focus on important domestic issues, particularly education, but also electricity, water, and industry. He believed the government should work to provide incentives to keep young educated Lebanese in the country to build the economy. He assessed that the U.S. could play an important role with its continued support of the Lebanese security forces, but also through assistance for improving higher education, building e-government structures to streamline the bureaucracy and minimize corruption, and expanding economic opportunities in the north, Mikati's home region. REGIONAL EVENTS AFFECT HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶7. (C) Mikati said that Hizballah's long-term objective is to export the Iranian revolution to the West, and that it is using Lebanon's Palestinian refugees as a justification for its existence. He worried again that Saad Hariri as Prime Minister would allow Hizballah to consolidate its strategic position on the Eastern Mediterranean to further this goal. He assessed that because the opposition expected this, it was enthusiastic to have Hariri as PM. Mikati strongly praised President Obama's June 4 Cairo speech and his commitment to Arab-Israeli peace, which would presumably resolve Lebanon's Palestinian refugee problem and remove Hizballah's justification. Nonetheless, he lamented the fact that no Arab leader had stood up to partner with the President in his efforts. ¶8. (C) Mikati gauged that protests in Iran were exposing cracks in the Iranian regime, and he believed both the Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad would emerge weaker as a result. This would inevitably affect Hizballah, he said, though it is unclear whether it would make it more or less aggressive. LEBANON READY FOR THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL? -------------- ¶9. (C) Mikati was concerned that Lebanon is unprepared for its upcoming membership in the UN Security Council (UNSC) in ¶2010. He noted that Lebanon had only five diplomats at its UN mission in New York, while current UNSC member Thailand has 40. He said he had spoken to Foreign Minister Salloukh, who promised he would send 10 additional diplomats to New York. Nevertheless, said Mikati, the urgent need would be to streamline the mission's decision-making processes. Each UN vote cannot come back to Lebanon's fractious cabinet for consideration, he stressed. "We will be the Arab representative on the Security Council, which is a great honor for us. But it will not be an honor for the Arab world to bebrought into the middle of our domestic disputes,"he exclaimed. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Mikati's "concern" about Hariri taking the Prime Minister slot came up throughout the meeting. Though his arguments against Hariri are in some cases valid, it is clear he was speaking out of real disappointment that he himself is not up for the job. Moreover, on June 26, Mikati declared BEIRUT 00000714 003 OF 003 that he will announce his preferred PM candidate on June 27, after his consultations with President Sleiman, adding that he hoped the country will see "the face of Saad (Arabic for joy)" in the next PM. End comment. SISON