LEBANON: JUMBLATT: "NASRALLAH DIVULGED NO SECRETS"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000713 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY EEB/ODF FOR DEMARCELLUS PARIS FOR RWALLER USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR MOPS IS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT: "NASRALLAH DIVULGED NO SECRETS" Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1. 4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a wide-ranging discussion with the Ambassador on June 25, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt commented that neither Speaker Nabih Berri nor majority leader Saad Hariri were "completely happy" with the conduct of their coalition members during the vote to choose the Speaker earlier that day. Opposition leader Michel Aoun "was bitter at everyone," and the efforts by party leaders to add MPs to their blocs was solely to gain a seat at the National Dialogue discussions. Jumblatt emphasized that economic issues and the mounting national debt were the country's most pressing problems for the new government. He did not believe much effort would be devoted to electoral reform and said any attempt at administrative reform in the new government was a "mission impossible." ¶2. (C) Jumblatt relayed that his June 18 meeting with Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah divulged "no secrets," and was mostly a rehash of past events. Jumblatt was not sure of the consequences coming out of the current unrest in Iran but noted it was a conflict not created by "newcomers," but within the establishment because people were "fed up." Jumblatt speculated on the choices for new ministers, saying he hoped Ziad Baroud would stay on at Interior, as well as Elias Murr at Defense. Jumblatt noted that efforts to build a Common Border Force in Lebanon to secure the borders was difficult due to conflicts within the several Lebanese security agencies. He also defended the rights of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. End Summary. ELECTING THE SPEAKER -------------- ¶3. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, in a June 25 meeting with the Ambassador and Poloff, noted that the reelection of Speaker Nabih Berri for a fifth term earlier that day had not gone as smoothly as expected. He said the process made neither Berri nor majority leader and presumptive PM-designate Saad Hariri "completely happy." Berri received only 90 of 127 ballots cast, obtaining less than the expected level of support from MPs. Jumblatt reported that Hariri had asked his Future Movement MPs to show internal solidarity and support Berri in this opening session of the new parliament. The number of votes indicated that some Future Movement MPs had joined those of Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces (LF) and Amine Gemayel's Phalange Party and not voted for Berri. In response, the opposition refrained from voting for the Future Movement MP, Farid Makari, for Deputy Speaker. ¶4. (C) Jumblatt said Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun was "bitter with everyone" over his showing on the June 7 parliamentary elections and was trying to work deals in forming parliamentary blocs in anticipation of the cabinet formation process and National Dialogue. Jumblatt quipped that the new blocs being formed since the election were being created with the sole intention of gaining a place at the National Dialogue discussions. (Note: The current criteria for participation at the National Dialogue requires a party bloc to have a minimum of four MPs. Originally March 8 and the opposition were represented by Berri, Hizballah, Aoun and Elie Skaff. If opposition attempts at realigning party blocs are successful, March 8 could possibly gain two more seats at the National Dialogue table. End Note). MOUNTING DEBT A MOUNTING PROBLEM -------------- ¶5. (C) Although Jumblatt would offer no estimates on when a new cabinet would be formed, he declared that the most pressing problem for the new government would be Lebanon's BEIRUT 00000713 002 OF 002 mounting national debt, already over 150% of GDP. He urged that the next finance minister should be a "technocrat." Jumblatt hoped that Interior Minister Ziad Baroud would remain in the government, and concluded that Elias Murr would probably remain as Defense Minister. He cautioned that privatization of the mobile phone system in Lebanon was an attempt to bring down the debt but its positive aspects would only affect one year's budget, and Hariri had too many "sharks" within his entourage looking to make offers, criticized Jumblatt. On administrative reform, such as reform of the social security system, Jumblatt disparaged that it would be "mission impossible." He also did not believe much work would be done soon on electoral reform, despite the approach of the 2010 municipal elections. He surmised that the current political leaders had no interest in electoral law change given vested interests. (Note: We assumed he was also speaking for himself. End Note) THE PRESIDENT'S MINISTERS -------------- ¶6. (C) Jumblatt noted Sleiman would seek to name four or five ministers in the new cabinet. Jumblatt mused that a 15-5-10 division of ministers between the majority, the President, and the opposition would not offer a true majority, but he believes that is what Sleiman wants (while Hariri preferred 16-4-10). IRAN: PEOPLE ARE "FED UP" -------------- ¶7. (C) Jumblatt relayed that his June 18 meeting with Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah divulged "no secrets," and was focused on Shia-Druze security. The talk was mostly a rehash of past events, he said. Jumblatt recounted his discussion with Nasrallah on the 2006 war and the use of suspected Sunni foreign fighters allegedly brought in by Hariri during the May 2008 clashes in Beirut. Turning to recent Iranian protests, Jumblatt was not sure of the consequences for Hizballah coming out of the current unrest but noted it was a conflict created by people "fed up" within the establishment, and not by "newcomers." GOOD LUCK WITH BORDER SECURITY -------------- 8 (C) Commenting on the June 19 meeting outgoing PM Fouad Siniora had with Common Border Force donor country representatives and ambassadors, Jumblatt disparaged the effort to come up with a Lebanese force comprised of contingents from the Lebanese Armed Forces, Internal Security Forces, General Security and Customs. He declared they "hate each other," and professed the effort would be difficult due to their internal conflicts. Jumblatt noted a peaceful Lebanon was historically a consequence of regional peace, admitting that recent Syrian-Saudi talks had a positive affect on Lebanon. UNSC, Palestinians -------------- ¶9. (C) Jumblatt stated that Lebanon gaining a seat on the UN Security Council in 2010 would be very problematic. He mused about the difficult position it would be in if/when a resolution came up such as calling for sanctions on Iran. Jumblatt also noted that the Palestinians in Lebanon needed some greater opportunities for employment and that Nahr al-Barid needed to be rebuilt, as the Palestinians deserved a certain level of proper living conditions. SISON