LEBANON: HARIRI FORMS NEW BLOC, BERRI RE-ELECTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000705 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY PARIS FOR RWALLER USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI FORMS NEW BLOC, BERRI RE-ELECTED SPEAKER Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On June 24, Parliamentary Majority Leader Saad Hariri announced the creation of the new "Lebanon First" parliamentary bloc, including some 34 Future Party MPs and allies plus seven prominent independents. We are seeing movement on a number of pro-March 14 MPs who were elected as independents into closer association with Hariri or fellow March 14 Christian leader Samir Geagea. On June 25, Nabih Berri was re-elected as Parliament Speaker. With Berri in place, attention turns to the selection of the next Prime Minister (almost certainly Saad Hariri) and then cabinet formation, which most contacts believe will be a protracted process. End summary. HARIRI HAS A NEW BLOC, BUT WHAT ABOUT MARCH 14? -------------- ¶2. (C) On June 24, Saad Hariri announced the creation of the "Lebanon First" parliamentary bloc, which includes Hariri's Future Movement and allies, plus a group of prominent independents, including Mohammed Safadi, Nayla Tueni, Michel Pharaon, Robert Fadel, and Robert Ghanem. In a meeting earlier on June 24, newly re-elected March 14 MP Boutros Harb told the Ambassador he had been approached by Hariri about joining the new parliamentary group, but reported he had refused. Harb called the new bloc "a lousy idea" because it appeared Hariri was attempting to replace March 14 with a "larger Future." Harb said he had told Hariri it was preferable for all of March 14 to work together in consultation. "We won as March 14," said Harb. "Why are we splitting now? We can work together while being independent on certain issues." Former Prime Minister and newly elected MP Najib Mikati told the Ambassador later on June 24 that he also had declined to join the new bloc, preferring to remain truly independent. BIG PARTY LEADERS KILL PROSPECTS FOR AN INDEPENDENT CHRISTIAN BLOC -------------- ¶3. (C) Many potential "independent" Christian figures present on the Lebanese political scene either were excluded from �0A;March 14 electoral lists or lost in June 7 elections. Post-elections, the leaders of the major March 14 parties have rushed to include these independents elected as MPs in their respective blocs. Harb said he had hoped to find a group of like-minded independent Christians with whom to work in the new parliament, naming Tueni, Pharaon, and Fadel, in particular, but in the end Hariri successfully courted them for Lebanon First. In a March 23 dinner, former March 14 MP Nayla Mouawad told the Ambassador that Samir Geagea and Amine Gemayel were vying for leadership of a new "Christian bloc" to rival Michel Aoun's. Geagea in particular worked to bring "independent" Christians into his fold, as three Christian MPs from Zahle announced their allegiance to his Lebanese Forces (LF),to the fury of some fiercely independent Zahle voters, who thought they were voting for independents. (In response, a group of Zahle mayors issued a statement protesting the move of the Zahle MPs to the LF.) BERRI RE-ELECTED, CABINET FORMATION PROTRACTED -------------- ¶4. (C) Nabih Berri was widely expected to win his re-election bid for the speakership of parliament, after pledges of support from Hariri and Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt. On June 25, he was indeed re-elected, though with the support of only 90 of the 128 deputies. Had BEIRUT 00000705 002 OF 002 the entire opposition, Lebanon First, and PSP voted for Berri, he would have received 109 votes. It is believed that most of the 19 "missing" Berri votes were Lebanon First MPs who refused to follow the Hariri line. Both Hariri and Berri were caught looking unhappy at the Parliament session, which was attended by Chiefs of Mission and other guests. Ali Hamdan, an advisor to Berri, said Hariri met with Berri following the election to apologize that not all his MPs had voted for Berri. As Hariri moves to the process of government formation, he will need as much unity as possible, in his new bloc and in March 14, to face down the opposition. Several of our interlocutors predict that the fact that Berri did not receive all the votes he expected will darken the political atmosphere and delay cabinet formation. ¶5. (C) Harb also reported that thus far, Hizballah was not placing conditions on the formation of a cabinet, seemingly satisfied with the idea of a guarantee that the cabinet would not take up the issue of its arms. Michel Aoun and Suleiman Frangieh were the problem, said Harb, with Aoun demanding a number of ministers proportional to his parliamentary share and Frangieh demanding a blocking third for the opposition. Harb was adamant that the blocking third would produce a government that cannot function. He advocated giving more ministries to President Sleiman, both to strengthen him and to give him the ability to settle any conflicts in the cabinet. For his part, Mikati told the Ambassador he believed the opposition would do everything possible to make cabinet formation difficult, and would find a new distraction everyday to prolong the process. ¶6. (C) Harb said he had suggested to President Sleiman that he draft a ministerial statement in advance of government formation, and then ask ministers to join the government on the basis of the statement. Nonetheless, he worried that the new government's ministerial statement would be a product of compromise between the majority and the opposition, leaving it weak on the issue of Hizballah's arms. He believed Hizballah would trade the opposition's blocking third in the cabinet in exchange for a statement approving the "resistance." SOME GRUMBLING ABOUT SAAD -------------- ¶7. (C) As Hariri prepares to take on his new role as Prime Minister, we have already heard complaints about his leadership style from his erstwhile allies. Harb complained that Hariri did not involve his allies in his decision-making, and said Hariri needed to make a habit of bringing his partners together as a group for consultation. In a thinly-veiled reference to Hariri's Saudi upbringing, Harb said, "Saad's an excellent guy, but he was raised in a different way. He needs to understand how we work in Lebanon, that he needs to consult with us. He is learning, but isn't there yet." Mikati worried that as Prime Minister, Hariri will rule like his father, giving in on economic reform to "pay off" his political rivals. SISON