LEBANON: TOYING WITH NABIH BERRI OVER SPEAKER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000670 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY PARIS FOR RWALLER USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2019 TAGS: LE PGOV PINR PREL SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: TOYING WITH NABIH BERRI OVER SPEAKER POSITION? REF: BEIRUT 646 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) There have been calls by some in March 14 for Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri not to be reelected to his post unless he commits to conditions, such as promising not to close the Parliament arbitrarily as he did for 18 months pre-Doha. Senior March 14 leaders like Hariri and Jumblatt appear to have endorsed Berri, however -- with conditions. In the end, we expect Berri likely will be reelected. For one thing, no other Shia political leader is likely to gain the requisite support in the Shia community. Choosing a speaker is the first order of business for the newly elected parliamentarians, whose mandate will begin June 21. Parliament must convene within fifteen days from June 21 to elect a speaker. End summary. COALITION MEMBERS DIFFER ON BERRI -------------- ¶2. (C) March 14 coalition members, never known for discipline in coordinating political messages, have sent conflicting signals on the question of re-electing Nabih Berri as Speaker of the Parliament, the first order of business after the new parliament begins its mandate. Some March 14 MPs have proposed alternatives to Berri, including "independent" pro-Amal MP Abdel Latif Zein or March 14-affiliated Okab Saqr. While no one believes they could be elected Speaker, the very suggestion of alternate names is seen as a challenge to Berri's presumptive reelection. ¶3. (C) March 14 leaders have not spoken with one voice. Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea has so far not publicly supported Berri. Kataeb leader Amine Gemayal told the press on June 16 he had objections to the actions Berri took 2006-08 when he "considered the previous government illegitimate (and) when he closed Parliament and hindered the presidential elections. Majority leader Saad Hariri has told us that Berri is the "natural choice" (septel),although he cautioned that Berri should not be able to close parliament as speaker. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has publicly declared his "personal position" of support for Berri. Hariri and Jumblatt, who have both expressed concern about and sought to improve Sunni-Shia and Druze-Shia relations respectively, have an interest in avoiding conflict with him, but may seek Berri's vow to avoid anything resembling the eighteen month parliamentary shutdown. (Note: Berri is the only speaker in Lebanon's history to have closed the legislature. End note.) EXACTING CONCESSIONS -------------- ¶4. (C) Some in March 14 have suggested that the majority send a signal to Berri by nominating another candidate for the first two rounds of voting, while eventually backing Berri in the last round. According to the Lebanese constitution, candidates for Speaker require a two-thirds majority to win in the first two rounds of voting. A simple majority is necessary in following rounds. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) For his part, Berri has said he will refuse any conditions on his election. Because no other strong candidates exist, he appears confident that he can wait out any challenges to his first round re-election. Berri publicly backed Hariri for incoming prime minister, saying it was the March 14 majority leader's "natural right" as a Sunni leader and urging the decision to be made by consensus. BEIRUT 00000670 002 OF 002 Presumably, he expects the same treatment with regard to his position in the Shia community. While preventing a slam-dunk re-election of Berri is tempting for March 14, it also has risks. A shrewd politician, Berri likely will keep any perceived slight over his reelection in his pocket for deal-making with the coalition in the coming weeks, given the upcoming government formation process. Efforts to put Berri on a leash also risk angering the Shia community. End Comment. SISON