LEBANON: OPINION-MAKER REACTION: "PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000627 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, NEA/PPD ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV LE IS SUBJECT: LEBANON: OPINION-MAKER REACTION: "PRESIDENT OBAMA'S SPEECH STARTS A NEW DISCOURSE, BUT ACTION ALSO NEEDED" REF: A. BEIRUT 617 ¶B. STATE 55334 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ambassador gathered a group of eight influential opinion-makers June 4 for a roundtable discussion following President Obama's speech from Cairo University. The group agreed that the speech was "culturally sensitive" and a positive first step to engagement with the Arab world. However, several were disappointed that there was not more detail in the speech about an action plan to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Immediate action was needed to inspire hope among the Palestinians and other Arab states, they said. The reference linking Lebanon's Maronite community to Egypt's Coptic Christians was not well-received by our interlocutors, but the U.S. promise to recognize governments elected by "the will of the people," gained a positive reaction three days before Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections. Discussion participants were encouraged by the recognition of the importance of meeting economic needs, education, and women's empowerment, and called for more tools of "soft-power diplomacy," such as scholarships and cultural exchanges. The speech was on the whole "impressive" participants said, but a clearer articulation of policy would have been more powerful, they argued. End summary. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador hosted a multi-confessional group of eight influential opinion-makers for a roundtable discussion three hours after President Obama delivered his speech from Cairo University on June 4. Discussion participants included Future Party parliamentarian Moustafa Allouch (Sunni from Tripoli),political analyst Toufiq Hindi (Syriac-Catholic), former Ambassador to the U.S. Simon Karam (Maronite), political analyst and scholar at the American University of Beirut's Issam Fares Center Rami Khoury (Palestinian-American Christian),lawyer Mohammad Matar (Shia),former MEPI grantee and chairperson of the Women's Business Network Hanan Saab (Druze),Director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies Oussama Safa (Shia),and Director of political action NGO Hayya Bina (and MEPI-grantee) Lokman Slim (Shia). The DCM and Poloffs also attended. SPEECH WAS "CULTURALLY SENSITIVE," BUT INCLUDED "DISTRACTIONS" -------------- ¶3. (C) Our roundtable participants -- a small, but confessionally and professionally diverse group -- universally praised President Obama's speech as a "good, symbolic step" to engage with the Middle East. The symbolism of speaking from Cairo University, in partnership with the oldest Islamic university in the world, Al-Azhar, sent a strong message to Arabs that the U.S. administration was serious about engagement, they said. AUB academic Rami Khoury noted the "unprecedented" admission by an American president of the U.S. role in the overthrow of a democratically-elected Iranian government, calling it a sign of maturity and "historical contrition." Think-tank head Oussama Safa agreed the title of the speech, "A New Beginning," captured the essence of the speech and praised it as the opening step to a new discourse with the region. ¶4. (C) Ambassador noted the President's outreach to Muslims around the world in his Inaugural Address, Al Arabiya interview, Nowruz message and speech in Turkey. Although the guests characterized the President's Cairo speech as "culturally sensitive," Muslims and non-Muslims alike at the discussion said they found the number of Quranic references "distracting." Mohammad Matar, describing himself as a Shia "culturally," said that as a secularist the Islamic references did not resonate with him. Lokman Slim noted that the Quranic verses quoted in the speech were "very good," but BEIRUT 00000627 002 OF 003 he assessed the impact as "low" because there are verses for everything: "even someone like Zarqawi (referencing the Al-Qaida operative) cites Quranic verses before a beheading," he said. The speech was billed in the media as an "address to the Muslim world," but Christian Khoury argued that such a characterization played into the hands of extremist and terrorist groups. The "psychedelic schizophrenia" of attempts by U.S. policymakers to differentiate between Islam and extremism missed the more important point, Khoury said, of addressing the rights of Muslims rather than Islam in America. Druze businesswoman Hanan Saab disagreed slightly, and said the absence of the word "terrorism" from the speech showed a more "diplomatic" approach than in recent years. IMMEDIATE ACTION NEEDED ON ISRAEL-PALESTINE ISSUE -------------- ¶6. (C) Interlocutors present at the discussion and others we contacted by telephone (Ref A) had high expectations that President Obama would unveil a detailed plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Moustafa Allouch and Khoury -- a Sunni and a Christian, respectively -- shared the view that most Arabs, irrespective of religion, shared the same grievances with the United States after years of feeling "slighted." The Ambassador noted that the President had reaffirmed that the United States would be a full partner with all those who seek peace, and had called on all parties to fulfill the obligations agreed to under the Road Map. In response, the guests emphasized that the Arab-U.S. relationship fifty years ago had been more "romantic," but declared the persistence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict had changed that. Safa cited obstacles to reaching a two-state solution, such as Iranian influence expanding in the region and an unwilling Israeli government, but argued that this remained the most important issue to address. Allouch agreed and said it was Iran which was manipulating the Arab-Israeli conflict to its own advantage. He emphasized that for President Obama to be successful in his efforts to resolve the conflict, specific actions were needed "tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow," he said. Toufiq Hindi called the speech "a good start," but urged swift action. ¶7. (C) Lokman Slim praised President Obama for calling on Arab states to also take responsibility to achieve a solution. To illustrate the importance of the point, he said two states would be unsustainable if one, Israel, was supported by its government, and the other, Palestine, did not have a "steady intravenous injection of Arab support." He surmised that without Arab support, an eventual Palestine would only become an extension of "Hamas-controlled Gaza." IRAN -------------- ¶8. (C) Shia NGO-activist Lokman Slim added that President Obama's intended message to Iran was "unclear." He believed that there was a message to the Iranian people, but was unable to capture the message to the Iranian government. Druze businesswoman Hanan Saab said that the speech showed a U.S. willingness to dialogue with Iran. However, the message to have a world free of nuclear weapons was unrealistic, she said. For his part, Syriac Christian Toufiq Hindi was pessimistic that Iran would ever engage in the Middle East peace process. The Iranian regime was not "Persian," rather Persian Iran was under an Islamic power, he said, and Iranian Islamic influence extended to Afghanistan and Pakistan. ON RELIGIOUS FREEDOM: MARONITES AND COPTS SHOULD NOT BE LINKED -------------- ¶9. (C) President Obama's only specific reference to Lebanon in the speech came when he discussed religious freedom and said, "The richness of religious diversity must be upheld -- whether it is for Maronites in Lebanon or the Copts in Egypt." Most of our interlocutors, Maronite and otherwise, BEIRUT 00000627 003 OF 003 objected to the linkage of the Maronites with the Coptic Christians in Egypt, describing the latter as a historically persecuted group (see also Ref A). Saab said the reference was "distasteful" because the Maronites are an integral part of Lebanon's social fabric. She believed it was inappropriate to single them out. Maronite Simon Karam, on the other hand, did not support President Obama's statement, but was willing to "excuse" it, saying, "Nevermind, we Maronites, we will go along with it if President Obama succeeds in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue." MESSAGE ON DEMOCRACY WILL RESONATE IN LEBANON -------------- ¶10. (C) With the approach of the June 7 Lebanese parliamentary elections, discussion participants reasoned that President Obama's message about democracy and recognizing governments elected by "the will of the people" would resonate loudly in Lebanon. Participants did not engage in a deep discussion of Lebanese politics or electoral outcomes, but expected the U.S. would continue its support for Lebanon despite the possibility that the Hizballah-led March 8 alliance would gain several seats in parliament, if not a clear majority. Participants were in general wary of Hizballah and its Christian ally, the Free Patriotic Movement led by Michel Aoun, assuming power in a new government if they did not commit to upholding Lebanon's constitution and maintaining Lebanon's delicate confessional balance. MORE "SOFT POWER DIPLOMACY" -------------- ¶11. (C) Hanan Saab and Moustafa Allouch were the most vocal in their support of President Obama's economic, education, and women's empowerment initiatives. They called for more "soft-power diplomacy" to include scholarships and exchange programs. Allouch recounted his personal story that he was "an enemy of America" until he visited the United States for the first time in 1990 and had a positive, personal experience there. Saab said she was "pleasantly surprised" by President Obama's call on everyone to prepare to pass the torch to the younger generation. Oussama Safa highlighted the irony that where Arab governments have failed to meet the economic needs of their populations, Islamist groups, such as Hamas and Hizballah, have successfully filled the void. "IMPRESSIVE IN A PASSIVE WAY" -------------- ¶12. (C) Drawing the session to a close, Ambassador noted the President's statement of shared interest in confronting extremism, focus on building on the Arab Peace Initiative, reaffirmation of U.S. commitment to seeking a world in which no nation holds nuclear weapons, and support for democracy and human rights. The discussion participants concluded that, overall, President Obama's speech was a "good first step." Summing up, Rami Khoury characterized the speech as "impressive in a passive way," but suggested that a clearer articulation of policy would have been more powerful. SISON