LEBANON: OPPOSITION CANDIDATES ACCUSE SLEIMAN OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000606

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
PARIS FOR RWALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: OPPOSITION CANDIDATES ACCUSE SLEIMAN OF
INTERFERENCE

REF: BEIRUT 599

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Not surprisingly, opposition candidates have accused
President Sleiman of "interfering" in the upcoming June 7
parliamentary elections. Sleiman was accused of interfering
in several Christian districts against candidates of Michel
Aoun, a candidate who is aligned with Aoun complained to us.
Two other opposition candidates told us they believed the
next cabinet should be based on the proportional
representation of each party in parliament, something
President Sleiman has advocated (reftel). End Summary.

SLEIMAN IS INTERFERING
--------------


2. (C) During the week of May 25, Emboffs had separate
meetings with three opposition candidates in the upcoming
elections. Incumbent FPM Member of Parliament (Michel Aoun)
Walid Khoury accused President Sleiman of interfering in the
parliamentary elections in Jbeil, where Khoury is campaigning
to retain his seat, as well as in other districts where the
Christian vote will be crucial such as Keserwan, Metn, and
Baabda. Khoury claimed that the mayor of Amchit, Sleiman's
hometown in Jbeil, has been instructing people to support the
president by voting for his opponent Nazem Khoury, Sleiman's
former advisor. Walid Khoury added that candidate Nazem
Khoury, his cousin, is "playing up his ties to the President."


3. (C) Khoury added that his ally Michel Aoun is not seeking
to shorten Sleiman's term so that he can realize his dream of
being president -- something many in March 14 and the media
claim -- but neither is he willing to give Sleiman sizable
influence in the cabinet given Sleiman's actions against him
during the campaign. Saying that Aoun is angered by
Sleiman's "interference," Khoury was adamant that the current
opposition will not "give any gifts" to Sleiman if it wins.

SPECULATION THAT HIZBALLAH
WILL NOT SEEK DEFENSE,
INTERIOR, JUSTICE PORTFOLIOS
--------------


4. (C) Two other opposition MP candidates argued that
formation of a new cabinet should be based on the
proportional representation of each party in parliament,
something President Sleiman also has advocated (reftel).
Marwan Abu Fadel, running in Aley with March 8 Druze figure
Talal Arslan, and Alain Aoun, running as a candidate of
Michel Aoun's FPM party in Baabda, told us on May 26 that
pursuing proportional representation in cabinet formation
would accelerate the process of adopting a new electoral law.
Abu Fadel speculated that Hizballah would not seek the key
defense, interior and justice portfolios if the opposition
wins the majority in parliament.


5. (C) Alain Aoun stressed that the next cabinet should
reflect the true distribution of power among the various
confessions. For example, Aoun said, the cabinet should not
include Shia figures who do not" truly represent" the Shia
population; otherwise, he declared, the cabinet will lack
legitimacy. (Note: This was a knock against the lone
pro-March 14 Shia in the current cabinet, Minister of
Administrative Reform Shamseddine. End note.) Alain Aoun
complained that while the Sunnis, Druze, and Shia are
well-represented in the cabinet formed in 2005, the "true"
Christian representatives were not included, referring to
Michel Aoun. (Note: Michel Aoun's allies have long claimed
that they were unfairly denied seats in the 2005 cabinet
despite their winning a majority of Christian votes in that
year's elections. End note.)

BEIRUT 00000606 002 OF 002




6. (C) Alain Aoun called the president's role a "fourth"
force (with the Sunnis, Shia, and Christians as the first
three). He said that if Sleiman wanted to remain a
"consensus" president while also holding a blocking third,
the blocking third would have to come from all parties and
confessions. Conversely, Aoun continued, if Sleiman wanted
his own "bloc" in the cabinet, it should be in accordance
with the number and confession of the members of his
parliamentary bloc. (Note: Sleiman does not yet have his own
Parliamentary bloc. End note.)

NATIONAL DIALOGUE MEETS,
ADJOURNS UNTIL AFTER ELECTION
--------------


7. (C) Lebanese leaders met June 1 in a seventh round of the
National Dialogue aimed at developing a national defense
strategy, and then adjourned until an unspecified date after
the election. The official statement following the meeting
called on all Lebanese to conduct the elections calmly and
responsibly. FPM leader Michel Aoun did not attend the
session; the volatile Aoun had said in a television interview
the previous week that he would not participate in future
Dialogue sessions.

SISON