LEBANON: OPPOSITION CANDIDATES ACCUSE SLEIMAN OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000606 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN OVP FOR HMUSTAFA PARIS FOR RWALLER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: OPPOSITION CANDIDATES ACCUSE SLEIMAN OF INTERFERENCE REF: BEIRUT 599 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Not surprisingly, opposition candidates have accused President Sleiman of "interfering" in the upcoming June 7 parliamentary elections. Sleiman was accused of interfering in several Christian districts against candidates of Michel Aoun, a candidate who is aligned with Aoun complained to us. Two other opposition candidates told us they believed the next cabinet should be based on the proportional representation of each party in parliament, something President Sleiman has advocated (reftel). End Summary. SLEIMAN IS INTERFERING -------------- ¶2. (C) During the week of May 25, Emboffs had separate meetings with three opposition candidates in the upcoming elections. Incumbent FPM Member of Parliament (Michel Aoun) Walid Khoury accused President Sleiman of interfering in the parliamentary elections in Jbeil, where Khoury is campaigning to retain his seat, as well as in other districts where the Christian vote will be crucial such as Keserwan, Metn, and Baabda. Khoury claimed that the mayor of Amchit, Sleiman's hometown in Jbeil, has been instructing people to support the president by voting for his opponent Nazem Khoury, Sleiman's former advisor. Walid Khoury added that candidate Nazem Khoury, his cousin, is "playing up his ties to the President." ¶3. (C) Khoury added that his ally Michel Aoun is not seeking to shorten Sleiman's term so that he can realize his dream of being president -- something many in March 14 and the media claim -- but neither is he willing to give Sleiman sizable influence in the cabinet given Sleiman's actions against him during the campaign. Saying that Aoun is angered by Sleiman's "interference," Khoury was adamant that the current opposition will not "give any gifts" to Sleiman if it wins. SPECULATION THAT HIZBALLAH WILL NOT SEEK DEFENSE, INTERIOR, JUSTICE PORTFOLIOS -------------- ¶4. (C) Two other opposition MP candidates argued that formation of a new cabinet should be based on the proportional representation of each party in parliament, something President Sleiman also has advocated (reftel). Marwan Abu Fadel, running in Aley with March 8 Druze figure Talal Arslan, and Alain Aoun, running as a candidate of Michel Aoun's FPM party in Baabda, told us on May 26 that pursuing proportional representation in cabinet formation would accelerate the process of adopting a new electoral law. Abu Fadel speculated that Hizballah would not seek the key defense, interior and justice portfolios if the opposition wins the majority in parliament. ¶5. (C) Alain Aoun stressed that the next cabinet should reflect the true distribution of power among the various confessions. For example, Aoun said, the cabinet should not include Shia figures who do not" truly represent" the Shia population; otherwise, he declared, the cabinet will lack legitimacy. (Note: This was a knock against the lone pro-March 14 Shia in the current cabinet, Minister of Administrative Reform Shamseddine. End note.) Alain Aoun complained that while the Sunnis, Druze, and Shia are well-represented in the cabinet formed in 2005, the "true" Christian representatives were not included, referring to Michel Aoun. (Note: Michel Aoun's allies have long claimed that they were unfairly denied seats in the 2005 cabinet despite their winning a majority of Christian votes in that year's elections. End note.) BEIRUT 00000606 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Alain Aoun called the president's role a "fourth" force (with the Sunnis, Shia, and Christians as the first three). He said that if Sleiman wanted to remain a "consensus" president while also holding a blocking third, the blocking third would have to come from all parties and confessions. Conversely, Aoun continued, if Sleiman wanted his own "bloc" in the cabinet, it should be in accordance with the number and confession of the members of his parliamentary bloc. (Note: Sleiman does not yet have his own Parliamentary bloc. End note.) NATIONAL DIALOGUE MEETS, ADJOURNS UNTIL AFTER ELECTION -------------- ¶7. (C) Lebanese leaders met June 1 in a seventh round of the National Dialogue aimed at developing a national defense strategy, and then adjourned until an unspecified date after the election. The official statement following the meeting called on all Lebanese to conduct the elections calmly and responsibly. FPM leader Michel Aoun did not attend the session; the volatile Aoun had said in a television interview the previous week that he would not participate in future Dialogue sessions. SISON