LEBANON: WITH CODEL ACKERMAN, SINIORA PUSHES FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000590 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN OVP FOR HMUSTAFA USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER UNSC KPAL IR LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: WITH CODEL ACKERMAN, SINIORA PUSHES FOR REGIONAL SOLUTIONS TO HELP LEBANON REF: A. BEIRUT 534 ¶B. 2008 BEIRUT 1041 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a discussion May 27 with CODEL Ackerman, Prime Minister Siniora blamed Israel for many of the region's problems and pushed for U.S. support for an equitable solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Solving the Palestinian problem, he said, would solve other regional problems, including Iran's expanding influence, and weaken extremist groups such as Hizballah. Ackerman replied that even if the Arab-Israeli conflict was solved tomorrow, it would neither solve all of Lebanon's problems, nor the region's, vis-a-vis Iran and extremism. Siniora also thanked the CODEL for continued U.S. support to strengthen Lebanese institutions, especially the army, and argued for increased U.S. dialogue with Iran and Syria. End summary. U.S. SUPPORT FOR LEBANON UNQUESTIONABLE -------------- ¶2. (C) Prime Minister Siniora and his senior advisor, Rola Nourreddine, welcomed visiting congressional delegation (CODEL) Ackerman at the Grand Serail May 27. CODEL members were Rep. Gary Ackerman, D-NY, chairman of the HFAC subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia; subcommittee members Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-TX and Rep. Keith Ellison, D-MN as well as subcommittee staffer Howard Diamond. Ackerman stated that the CODEL was in Lebanon to demonstrate continued support to Siniora and the GOL prior to the June 7 parliamentary elections. They wished Siniora luck in his campaign for a seat in his home district of Sidon. Ackerman added that the United States was, and would remain, a friend of Lebanon and would continue to support Lebanon's state institutions. ¶3. (C) Siniora thanked the CODEL for unwavering U.S. support and commitment to Lebanon's independence and sovereignty, especially during difficult times such as the Lebanese Armed Forces' (LAF) battle against Fatah al-Islam terrorists at the Palestinian refugee camp Nahr al-Barid in 2007. He also thanked the CODEL for its commitment to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. ¶4. (C) Ackerman asked Siniora how the United States could help Lebanon deal with its problems, mainly the threat posed to Lebanon by Hizballah and Iran. Siniora responded that a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict would solve many problems in Lebanon and the region. Siniora said Iran's rhetoric portraying itself as the defender of Islam and its continued "hijacking" of the Palestinian issue boosted the Iranian regime's credentials and increased its regional influence. A solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict would deprive Iran of one of its "causes," he stated. ¶5. (C) Siniora warned that the continued lack of a solution to the Arab-Israeli problem will increase radicalization in the region, threaten moderate Arab-governments, and strengthen Iran's hand. He added that the new USG focus, and positive attitude, towards this issue was important. In addition, statements from U.S. officials condemning Israeli settlement expansion and U.S. comments supporting the Arab Peace Initiative were positive signs and helped strengthen moderate Arab governments. HOW TO DEAL WITH HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶6. (C) Ackerman acknowledged that a solution to the BEIRUT 00000590 002 OF 002 Israeli-Palestinian issue was important. However, he noted that even if Israel did everything the GOL desired and there was regional peace tomorrow, Lebanon would still have many problems. Therefore, "How would the GOL deal with Hizballah?," Ackerman asked. Siniora replied that Lebanon's territorial disputes with Israel bolster Hizballah's argument to maintain its weapons (Ref A). Siniora continued that Israeli fears that a withdrawal from northern Ghajar and Sheba'a Farms would be portrayed as a victory for Hizballah were ironic since Israel delivered a victory to the group by returning some of its fighters directly to Hizballah (instead of to the GOL) in July 2008 -- Ref B. ¶7. (C) Nourreddine added that even if the Israelis withdrew from northern Ghajar and Sheba'a Farms, Hizballah would still exist because of its role as a major political party and its broad support amongst Lebanese Shia. However, she noted that an Israeli withdrawal and a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict would take the "resistance" card away from Hizballah and many Lebanese would begin to see Hizballah as an extremist group, as opposed to a resistance movement. Also, Hizballah could no longer define those who oppose it as siding with Israel against the "resistance." She added that U.S. support for Lebanon's security institutions is also critical to countering Hizballah because if the LAF and Internal Security Forces are weak, it will give Hizballah another excuse to maintain its weapons. IRAN -------------- ¶8. (C) Ackerman asked Siniora for his opinion on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat and the regime's support of extremist groups throughout the region. Iran is a problem, but not the central problem facing the region, Siniora stressed. Siniora reiterated that a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict would deprive Iran of one of its causes. Furthermore, Siniora advised the United States against "attacking" Iran because it would have a counter effect of increasing Iran's regional appeal. Siniora stated that the GOL could counter Iran's support of terrorist groups by having stronger state institutions, mainly the LAF and ISF. SYRIA -------------- ¶9. (C) Siniora stressed that Lebanon wants friendly relations with its neighbor, but that Lebanon was not a satellite state in Syria's hands. Syria, he said, had attempted to "clone" Lebanon on a Syrian model years ago, but had failed. Siniora supported U.S. dialogue with Syria, but advised the United States to approach its engagement with Syria without making any "advanced payment." SISON