LEBANON: ELECTION DISPUTE BODY FINALLY NAMED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000587 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTION DISPUTE BODY FINALLY NAMED REF: A. BEIRUT 00247 ¶B. BEIRUT 00570 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Lebanese cabinet on May 27 appointed the final five members to the Constitutional Council, completing the formation of the body that will consider disputes over the June 7 parliamentary election results. This was a critical step to ensure the upcoming elections are seen as free and fair. Although technically an independent judicial body, the final breakdown of Council members includes six members who are close to the majority March 14 coalition, three close to the Hizballah-led opposition, and one independent ally of the President. As seven votes are required to pass decisions on the Council, neither March 14 nor the opposition can issue a decision without agreement from at least one other Council member. ¶2. (C) In a possible preview of the cabinet formation process -- which we expect to be lengthy and contentious -- President Michel Sleiman played a critical role in finding a compromise solution to the formation of Constitutional Council. While unlikely to be entirely insulated from confessional politics, the Council is crucial to efforts to strengthen the transparency and fairness of the electoral process. END summary. SLEIMAN MEDIATION "CRITICAL" -------------- ¶3. (C) After a series of delays and disagreements between majority March 14 ministers and opposition ministers (Ref A), the cabinet May 27 unanimously appointed the remaining five members of the Constitutional Council. (Note: Parliament selected in December 2008 the first five members to the Council. A constitutionally-mandated body, the Council requires a quorum of eight members to act, with seven needed to pass a decision. END note.) ¶4. (C) In what was an unexpected development, President Sleiman succeeded in his effort to push March 4 and the opposition to resolve their dispute andname the five remaining members of the Council. According to Ali Hamdan, aide to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, President Sleiman carried out intense consultations with Berri, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, and Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun to reach a compromise. Hamdan cited the President's mediation as critical to the selection, in particular, of the Maronite and Orthodox candidates and the position of presidency of the Council. ¶5. (C) Embassy contacts generally speak highly of the five new members: Issam Sleiman (Maronite),Toufic Soubra (Sunni), Assaad Diab (Shia),Suheil Abed al-Samad (Druze),and Salah Moukhayber (Orthodox). Issam Sleiman was President Sleiman's "candidate" and is close to respected former Prime Minister Salim Hoss. Soubra is allied with Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri and PM Siniora. Druze leaders Talal Arslan and Walid Jumblatt agreed on the selection of Samad, who contacts say is closer to March 14. Diab, close to Speaker Berri and Syria, is reportedly a regular at card games with the former Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon. COUNCIL POLITICS -------------- ¶6. (C) Issam Sleiman (Maronite),following an unofficial agreement between Aoun and Sleiman, is expected to become chairman of the Constitutional Council. All contacts spoke highly of him. He is a professor of constitutional law and political science at the Lebanese University. ¶7. (C) With the new appointments, six Council members are more closely aligned with March 14, three with the Hizballah-Aoun opposition, and one -- Issam Sleiman -- with BEIRUT 00000587 002 OF 002 the President. As Council decisions require seven votes for passage, neither side can make a decision without at least one other vote. Sleiman's support would give March 14-allied members enough votes to pass a decision; his vote also would give the opposition enough to block. This setup also opens the possibility of a hamstrung Council unable to gain the necessary seven votes to pass decisions. Judge Sleiman is expected to use his position carefully and follow the role of his patron, the President, working for compromise on the Council. EFFECT OF POLITICAL PRESSURE UNKNOWN -------------- ¶8. (C) Political pressure and financial incentives -- a common way of doing business and politics in Lebanon -- likely will be used in an attempt to sway Constitutional Council members. Opposition Free Patriotic Movement MP Ibrahim Kenaan noted that members will ultimately have to satisfy the needs of their "patrons." Although Council members are political appointees, most are also well-respected legal experts who will be judged based on their impartiality; decisions made by the Council will be scrutinized throughout the country and abroad. Therefore, the political and confessional affiliations of the members may not be a perfect indication of how they will vote on disputes. The completion of the Council before elections is a positive development. Although likely linked to the fact that both March 14 and the opposition believe they will win elections, the establishment of the full Council indicates that both sides do in fact seek to hold timely elections, with a proper dispute resolution mechanism. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Following his failed attempt last week to forge agreement on administrative appointments in cabinet (Ref B), President Sleiman nonetheless again exercised leadership in pushing the completion of this vital institution. In a May 27 speech, Sleiman said the role of the President was not to "manage differences" but to "impose balanced solutions." This will be especially critical during the upcoming cabinet formation process, which we expect to be lengthy and controversial. SISON