LEBANON: AOUN HAS LOST METN VOTES, MICHEL MURR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000571 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN HAS LOST METN VOTES, MICHEL MURR CLAIMS REF: BEIRUT 00563 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Metn political heavyweight Michel Murr, meeting with the Ambassador on May 20, expressed confidence that March 14 would win the upcoming parliamentary elections, although he expected the result to be close. Murr disclosed that President Sleiman was feeling frustrated with Lebanon's electoral game but was hopeful about a solid March 14 and independent showing on June 7. Sleiman planned to support current Minister of Defense Elias Murr (Michel's son) as Defense Minister in the next cabinet and Sunni leader Saad Hariri as the new prime minister, Michel Murr claimed. Murr claimed that Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's recent vitriolic statements had cost his ally Christian leader Michel Aoun 1000 Christian votes in the key Metn district. End summary. CONFIDENT FOR JUNE 7 -------------- ¶2. (C) An energetic and cheerful Michel Murr on May 20 told the Ambassador, accompanied by PolEconOff and Senior Political LES, that March 14 and the allied independent deputies would win the majority in the June 7 parliamentary elections, despite some problematic districts. The Christian Metn district heavyweight said he had three definite seats in his district secured and was still working for the full seven. (In a press conference later in the day, Murr "guaranteed victory" in all seven seats.) Murr reiterated that with such a close national race, the outcome in Metn would be the deciding factor nationwide. ¶3. (C) Murr echoed March 14 leaders' concerns about Beirut 1 and Zahle districts. He said that Sunni leader Saad Hariri would soon attempt to convince current Minister and erstwhile March 14 ally Nassib Lahoud to instruct his followers to vote for Murr's list in Metn by hinting at a cabinet position for Lahoud. NASRALLAH'S SPEECH WILL HURT AOUN IN METN -------------- ¶4. (C) Murr opined that Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun had lost 1000 Christian votes in Metn because of Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's recent speeches (Ref A). Aoun's ally, Nasrallah, had become "arrogant," Murr said, describing Hizballah as no longer a resistance but a militia that could bring the country to civil war. Murr admitted, however, that Nasrallah -- expected to give speeches on May 22 and 25 as well -- had time before the elections to step back from his vitriolic rhetoric. ¶5. (C) In the meantime, Murr sought to instill fear of Hizballah -- and by default, fear of Aoun -- into the Christian voters of Metn. He told the Ambassador that in his Metn outreach, he compared an opposition-led Lebanese government to that of the Hamas-led government in the Gaza Strip. The international community and the U.S. would refuse to deal with Hizballah, and Christian areas that had followed Aoun and his alliance with Hizballah would be the most affected, Murr said he had told Metn voters. SLEIMAN SEEKING WAY FORWARD -------------- ¶6. (C) President Michel Sleiman was frustrated with election maneuvering and disappointed by recent criticisms by Aoun and opposition Christian figure Suleiman Franjieh that Sleiman was interfering in elections. Sleiman was nervous his candidates would lose, Murr said. The President had asked Jbeil candidate (March 14 SecGen) Fares Souaid to withdraw, BEIRUT 00000571 002 OF 002 as the President's former advisor Nazem Khoury probably would lose if Souaid ran in the district as well. (Souaid and Nazem Khoury both remain in the race.) Despite these frustrations, Sleiman was looking for a way to unify March 14 and his allies around him and seek a way forward after elections, Murr said. ¶7. (C) Murr assessed that, following a March 14 victory in the June 7 elections, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri -- both of whom have made recent moves toward a political middle ground -- would solidify behind President Sleiman. In order to cool animosity between Hariri and Speaker Berri, Murr intended to push a proposal that would appease both men. Murr plans to encourage a deal whereby Speaker Berri's deputies would agree to vote for Hariri as the next prime minister, and, in exchange, Hariri's deputies would vote for Berri to continue as Speaker. (Note: At his press conference, Murr reiterated his support for Berri as the next Speaker and questioned those attacking the President. End note.) ¶8. (C) Murr expressed fear about violence in the case of a March 14 victory, if the opposition refused to accept the results or pushed for a blocking one-third minority in cabinet. Murr noted that June 20 would be a key date as the mandate or the current parliament would expire, and new MPs would convene to elect a cabinet. (Note: The Siniora cabinet goes into caretaker status on June 20, the end of the current parliament's mandate, until a new cabinet is formed. We expect this to be a lengthy process. End note.) Murr says he would not participate in a March 8-led government and would instruct his "staunchly American" son, Defense Minister Elias Murr, to abstain as well. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Saying that the Metn district is crucial to the national outcome embellishes Michel Murr's importance a political kingmaker. It is clear, however, that Metn is one of three or four key battleground districts, all Christian-dominated, that will determine the majority. Murr has his Metn political machine in full gear to boost the chances of March 14 candidates on Murr's list against those of his former ally, Michel Aoun. ¶10. (C) Whereas independent Murr remains allied to March 14, former Hariri confidant Ghattas Khoury is still alienated from the March 14 coalition. In a separate May 20 meeting with Senior Political LES, Khoury criticized Hariri's failure to support Khoury's candidacy in the Chouf. Khoury was continuing his campaign, albeit quietly, he said, in order to avoid embarrassing Hariri; the Sunni population of Chouf had embraced his candidacy, Khoury claimed. For his part, Khoury assessed March 14 would lose the elections, following defeats in Metn and Zahle. Khoury disapproved of Hariri's support of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in Sidon. If Siniora lost, it would be a "major defeat," and if Siniora won, he would rival Hariri for the next premiership, Khoury said. End comment. SISON