LEBANON: NASRALLAH UPS ELECTORAL ANTE IN FIERY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000563 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: NASRALLAH UPS ELECTORAL ANTE IN FIERY SPEECHES Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1. 4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Three weeks before the June 7 parliamentary elections, Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah appeared in two televised speeches on May 15 and May 18. His speeches glorified the events of May 7, 2008 and highlighted Hizballah's preparations for any future conflict with Israel. Nasrallah taunted the March 14 coalition to join a potential national unity government or be left on the sidelines. We believe the recent speeches were aimed at rallying voters, both in Hizballah's base and those undecided voters that could tip the balance in the election in favor of the opposition. However, the negative reaction from opposition Sunni figures and some opposition allies to Nasrallah's speeches indicate that that Nasrallah probably failed to attract new support outside of his base. End summary and comment. TURNING UP THE RHETORIC -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Three weeks before the June 7 parliamentary elections, Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah has increased the frequency of his televised speeches. On May 15, Nasrallah used fiery language to pronounce that the violent events that began about a year before, on May 7, 2008, constituted a "glorious day" for Hizballah. He also said if the March 14 coalition did not want to join a unity government after the elections, then Hizballah was capable of "running" the country. Nasrallah also condemned March 14's objection to the " blocking third" concept for the cabinet. ¶3. (SBU) In a less vitriolic speech on May 18, Nasrallah addressed Israel's scheduled military maneuvers on May 31-June 4. He announced Hizballah would take precautionary and "exceptional measures" to face any security attack that might target Lebanon. Nasrallah named several possible reasons for Israel's maneuvers, including the possibility that Israel was preparing for a "surprise" war. Nasrallah is scheduled to appear again on May 22 and May 25. SPEECHES EVOKE OUTRAGE -------------- ¶4. (C) Nasrallah's remarks sparked outrage among various March 14 figures, with the notable exception of Walid Jumblatt, who described Nasrallah's May 7 glorification as a "slip of the tongue." (Note: Jumblatt recently has reached out to Hizballah allies in efforts to maintain stability and security in his home region. End note.) Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said Nasrallah's remarks were a result of feeling the "ecstasy of power." March 14 majority leader Saad Hariri, in a May 19 press statement, affirmed that due to Nasrallah's rhetoric, he will not meet with Nasrallah, as had been discussed earlier. Furthermore, challenging Nasrallah, Hariri retorted that May 7 would not be forgotten. March 14 MP Boutros Harb told senior political LES that Nasrallah, by ignoring the critiques of his May 15 speech, sent another indication that the May 7 clashes were, to Nasrallah, a great moment for Hizballah. ¶5. (C) Former Prime Ministers Najib Mikati and Salim Hoss, two Sunni figures with close ties to Syria, denounced Nasrallah's comments. Mikati (a candidate on March 14's electoral list in Tripoli) hoped that May 7 was not "glorified," and called for strengthening national unity and avoiding tense rhetoric. Hoss, a political foe of Hariri, disagreed with Nasrallah, noting "I consider May 7 a painful day." Hoss remarked that Nasrallah should have apologized for what happened on that day. Former Prime Minister Omar Karame, a staunch opponent of Hariri, also did not defend Nasrallah's remarks. ¶6. (C) Independent Shia MP Yassine Jaber, who is close to Speaker Nabih Berri, told Econstaff on May 19 that Nasrallah BEIRUT 00000563 002 OF 002 delivered the speeches in an attempt to mobilize his supporters to vote on June 7. Nonetheless, some observers believed that Nasrallah's comments about May 7 recalled Lebanese memories of civil war and the Israeli attacks on Lebanon in July 2006, thus having the opposite effect. These images create fear among the Lebanese, they said. ¶7. (C) Other interlocutors believed Nasrallah's speeches could have a negative effect on the return of expatriate voters for the June 7 elections. Without a large number of expatriates and tourists returning for summer vacations, the economy could suffer also, they believed. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) While it is likely Nasrallah's recent speeches were primarily intended to attract votes for the June 7 parliamentary elections, there are signs his aggressive rhetoric played poorly with some who might have influence over undecided voters. Moreover, his speeches attempted to reassert Hizballah as a dominant force in Lebanon and the region. We suspect the timing of his speeches intended to send a clear message that the upcoming changes in Lebanon would be heavily influenced by Hizballah. End comment. SISON