LEBANON: ZAHLE A KEY DISTRICT IN BATTLE BETWEEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000540 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ZAHLE A KEY DISTRICT IN BATTLE BETWEEN MARCH 8 AND 14 REF: BEIRUT 245 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Zahle will be a key district in the upcoming June 7 parliamentary elections; the next majority in parliament depends, in part, on who wins in Zahle. As of May 14, neither March 8 nor March 14 had officially announced their candidate lists, at a time when nearly all of the districts have declared lists. March 14's delay is due to internal coalition disputes over the Sunni, Shia and Armenian seats. If March 14 leaders fail to agree on candidates for its list, a third list supported by independents will likely form and draw votes away from March 14. March 14 leader Saad Hariri's negotiations with Shia candidate MP Mohsen Dalloul to convince him to withdraw from the race in order to boost March 14 chances to win failed May 13 evening, although we are told there may yet be new developments. Polling results forecast a tough fight in Zahle and are predicting a slight victory for the March 8 list. End summary and comment. ZAHLE SEEN AS KEY DISTRICT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Zahle is considered a key district and, because competition between March 8 and March 14 is very tight throughout the country, the winner in Zahle could determine which coalition assumes the majority in parliament. The Syrians are expected to play an important role in Zahle elections by influencing voters and mobilizing Syrian nationals who are naturalized Lebanese citizens, given Zahle's strategic location as Syria's gateway to Lebanon and its history of interference in local politics. LISTS NOT YET ANNOUNCED -------------- ¶3. (SBU) As of May 14, neither March 8 nor March 14 had officially announced their lists yet, at a time when nearly all of Lebanon's 26 districts have declared lists. Five March 8 incumbents are running on a list headed by current Minister of Agriculture and Zahle MP Elias Skaff, who is backed by opposition parties Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Hizballah, the Armenian Tashnaq party, as well as by Syria. March 8 has yet to select its Sunni candidate. ¶4. (SBU) Similarly, March 14 still has not officially announced its candidates, although we know current MP Nicolas Fattouch will head the list. Nicolas' brother, Pierre Fattouch, told us that the March 14 leaders agreed on the Christian seats but are still negotiating the Sunni, Shia, and Armenian seats. INTRA-MARCH 14 FEUDING PROLONGS LIST FORMATION -------------- ¶5. (C) Nader Hariri, advisor to March 14 leader Saad Hariri, told us that Pierre Fattouch is actually running the show and is pushing for a Shia candidate from Zahle, but is running up against Saad's preference to run an outsider. Fattouch complained that an outsider would hurt March 14,s prospects because he does not represent the Shia community there and could not mobilize them to vote. He warned that if outsiders are imposed on the March 14 list, independent candidates (including himself) might form a third list which could draw votes away from March 14. ¶6. (C) Furthermore, Hariri said that Saad Hariri met on May 11 with Shia candidate from Zahle, former MP Mohsen Dalloul and discussed the need for Dalloul to withdraw from the race, in order to boost the chances of March 14 list to win the election. Dalloul, who is related to the Hariris through marriage (his son is married to Saad's stepmother Nazek Hariri's daughter),refused to pull out and according to BEIRUT 00000540 002 OF 002 Nader, Dalloul would continue to run as an independent. Nader reported that the Zahle list will include Nicolas Fattouch (Catholic Tony Bukhater (Catholic),Elie Marouni (Maronite),Oqab Saqr (Shia),Joseph Maalouf, Shant Chanchanian (Armenian) and Assem Araji (Sunni). (Note Araji was on the March 8 list during the 2005 parliamentary elections. End note) ¶7. (C) Saad reportedly asked Fattouch to select the Armenian candidate, however, according to Fattouch, Lebanese Forces, leader Samir Geagea is insisting on naming the Armenian candidate. Fattouch angrily told us on May 12 that he would ask his supporters to vote against the March 14 list if Geagea insisted on his Armenian candidate. ELECTION PREDICTIONS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) According to Fattouch, there are 158,000 voters registered in Zahle. 90,000 are Christians; 43,000 are Sunnis; and 25,000 are Shia. Rabih Haber of Statistics Lebanon, a private research company, predicted a tough fight in Zahle and gives a slight advantage to March 8 by winning four of the seven seats (reftel). Kamal Feghali of Lebanon's Research Institute, another reputable NGO, agreed with Haber's prediction. ¶9. (SBU) Fattouch expected March 14 to win all of the seven seats by getting 45% of Christian votes, 80% of Sunni votes and 30% of Shia votes. However, he said he realized that many voters will not vote for an entire list and might cross out names from both lists. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Christian voters in Zahle, who represent over 55% of the voters, are zealous in protecting local political interests and hate interference from outside parties in their internal affairs. The March 8 campaign is taking this into consideration and highlighting the fact that their list is "made in Zahle" and headed by Skaff, a leading name in local politics. Some have said that Skaff's popularity has recently declined -- but even with a decline, he is still quite popular. There is a local expression used that says, "If a Skaff planted a stick, people would vote for the stick." ¶11. (C) On the other hand, Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces and Amine Gemayel's Kataeb are attempting to monopolize the Zahle elections and minimize the role of Nicolas Fattouch, whose family has been active in politics there since the 1990s. If Fattouch and Lebanese Forces do not resolve their dispute, March 8 could emerge victorious in Zahle. End comment. SISON