LEBANON: ZAHLE A KEY DISTRICT IN BATTLE BETWEEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000540

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ZAHLE A KEY DISTRICT IN BATTLE BETWEEN
MARCH 8 AND 14

REF: BEIRUT 245

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) Zahle will be a key district in the upcoming June 7
parliamentary elections; the next majority in parliament
depends, in part, on who wins in Zahle. As of May 14,
neither March 8 nor March 14 had officially announced their
candidate lists, at a time when nearly all of the districts
have declared lists. March 14's delay is due to internal
coalition disputes over the Sunni, Shia and Armenian seats.
If March 14 leaders fail to agree on candidates for its list,
a third list supported by independents will likely form and
draw votes away from March 14. March 14 leader Saad Hariri's
negotiations with Shia candidate MP Mohsen Dalloul to
convince him to withdraw from the race in order to boost
March 14 chances to win failed May 13 evening, although we
are told there may yet be new developments. Polling results
forecast a tough fight in Zahle and are predicting a slight
victory for the March 8 list. End summary and comment.

ZAHLE SEEN AS KEY DISTRICT
--------------


2. (SBU) Zahle is considered a key district and, because
competition between March 8 and March 14 is very tight
throughout the country, the winner in Zahle could determine
which coalition assumes the majority in parliament. The
Syrians are expected to play an important role in Zahle
elections by influencing voters and mobilizing Syrian
nationals who are naturalized Lebanese citizens, given
Zahle's strategic location as Syria's gateway to Lebanon and
its history of interference in local politics.

LISTS NOT YET ANNOUNCED
--------------


3. (SBU) As of May 14, neither March 8 nor March 14 had
officially announced their lists yet, at a time when nearly
all of Lebanon's 26 districts have declared lists. Five
March 8 incumbents are running on a list headed by current
Minister of Agriculture and Zahle MP Elias Skaff, who is
backed by opposition parties Free Patriotic Movement (FPM),
Hizballah, the Armenian Tashnaq party, as well as by Syria.
March 8 has yet to select its Sunni candidate.


4. (SBU) Similarly, March 14 still has not officially
announced its candidates, although we know current MP Nicolas
Fattouch will head the list. Nicolas' brother, Pierre
Fattouch, told us that the March 14 leaders agreed on the
Christian seats but are still negotiating the Sunni, Shia,
and Armenian seats.

INTRA-MARCH 14 FEUDING
PROLONGS LIST FORMATION
--------------


5. (C) Nader Hariri, advisor to March 14 leader Saad Hariri,
told us that Pierre Fattouch is actually running the show and
is pushing for a Shia candidate from Zahle, but is running up
against Saad's preference to run an outsider. Fattouch
complained that an outsider would hurt March 14,s prospects
because he does not represent the Shia community there and
could not mobilize them to vote. He warned that if outsiders
are imposed on the March 14 list, independent candidates
(including himself) might form a third list which could draw
votes away from March 14.


6. (C) Furthermore, Hariri said that Saad Hariri met on May
11 with Shia candidate from Zahle, former MP Mohsen Dalloul
and discussed the need for Dalloul to withdraw from the race,
in order to boost the chances of March 14 list to win the
election. Dalloul, who is related to the Hariris through
marriage (his son is married to Saad's stepmother Nazek
Hariri's daughter),refused to pull out and according to

BEIRUT 00000540 002 OF 002


Nader, Dalloul would continue to run as an independent.
Nader reported that the Zahle list will include Nicolas
Fattouch (Catholic Tony Bukhater (Catholic),Elie Marouni
(Maronite),Oqab Saqr (Shia),Joseph Maalouf, Shant
Chanchanian (Armenian) and Assem Araji (Sunni). (Note Araji
was on the March 8 list during the 2005 parliamentary
elections. End note)


7. (C) Saad reportedly asked Fattouch to select the Armenian
candidate, however, according to Fattouch, Lebanese Forces,
leader Samir Geagea is insisting on naming the Armenian
candidate. Fattouch angrily told us on May 12 that he would
ask his supporters to vote against the March 14 list if
Geagea insisted on his Armenian candidate.

ELECTION PREDICTIONS
--------------


8. (SBU) According to Fattouch, there are 158,000 voters
registered in Zahle. 90,000 are Christians; 43,000 are
Sunnis; and 25,000 are Shia. Rabih Haber of Statistics
Lebanon, a private research company, predicted a tough fight
in Zahle and gives a slight advantage to March 8 by winning
four of the seven seats (reftel). Kamal Feghali of Lebanon's
Research Institute, another reputable NGO, agreed with
Haber's prediction.


9. (SBU) Fattouch expected March 14 to win all of the seven
seats by getting 45% of Christian votes, 80% of Sunni votes
and 30% of Shia votes. However, he said he realized that
many voters will not vote for an entire list and might cross
out names from both lists.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Christian voters in Zahle, who represent over 55% of
the voters, are zealous in protecting local political
interests and hate interference from outside parties in their
internal affairs. The March 8 campaign is taking this into
consideration and highlighting the fact that their list is
"made in Zahle" and headed by Skaff, a leading name in local
politics. Some have said that Skaff's popularity has
recently declined -- but even with a decline, he is still
quite popular. There is a local expression used that says,
"If a Skaff planted a stick, people would vote for the
stick."


11. (C) On the other hand, Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces and
Amine Gemayel's Kataeb are attempting to monopolize the Zahle
elections and minimize the role of Nicolas Fattouch, whose
family has been active in politics there since the 1990s. If
Fattouch and Lebanese Forces do not resolve their dispute,
March 8 could emerge victorious in Zahle. End comment.
SISON