LEBANON: ARCHBISHOP AUDI EXPRESSES FEAR OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000538 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT OVP FOR HMUSTAFA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC IS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ARCHBISHOP AUDI EXPRESSES FEAR OF DECLINING CHRISTIAN POWER Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Orthodox Christian Archbishop Audi, meeting with NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary Hale on May 9, at turns decried the political season in Lebanon; emphasized the need for Lebanese to be beholden to the state and its institutions; expressed his fear that the Shi'a population, with Hizballah at its helm, was becoming a clone of Iran; and nostalgically recounted days when it was not the case. The Archbishop welcomed the strong statements of Secretary Clinton and U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Rice in support of Lebanon while expressing his fears that a Hizballah/Shi'a government, with its growing population and disregard for state institutions, would systematically undermine the Christian population in Lebanon until they are no more. End summary. Loyalty to the State Above All -------------- ¶2. (C) NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale, accompanied by the Ambassador and ConOff, met with Orthodox Christian Archbishop Audi at the Archbishop's downtown office on May 9. Audi repeatedly stressed that the Lebanese need to prioritize the state and its institutions above their own, smaller political ambitions. However, he lamented, it is rarely, if ever, the case. Parliament, Audi chided, had refused to work for one-and-a-half years while taking the taxpayers, money, and now it continues to do a disservice in failing to meet a quorum. Audi said he would address this lack of concern for the state in his next sermon where he planned to liken Lebanon to a cripple in a biblical story. In the story, a paralytic is unable to move himself into the healing water of the pool of Bethesda while the masses, fixated on curing their own afflictions, ignore him. Lebanese politicians, Audi said, act like these sinners when they ignore the state in the midst of political positioning and deal making. ¶3. (C) According to Audi, among those with the least regard for the state is Hizballah. The Archbishop illustrated this lack of respect by explaining how populations treat the symbol of the state -- the flag. When Audi was in the U.S. as a young Orthodox priest, he witnessed the respect with which Americans treated their flag -- once he saw a flag inadvertently dropped on the ground and it had to be burned. By contrast, he said, Lebanese flags on government buildings are often tattered and faded with little to distinguish them from old laundry left out to dry. Hizballah, he explained, had even less respect for this national symbol. Hizballah scouts once refused to carry the Lebanese flag at a national gathering of scouts and it wasn't until the Archbishop himself accused a Hizballah official of not being Lebanese that the flag was flown by the official. ¶4. (C) Ultimately, Audi confided, Lebanon is currently a state within a state; yet, due to the power Hizballah wields, no one dares challenge it. Audi said he has not forgotten May 7, 2008, when Hizballah activists essentially shut down the country. Anecdotally, Audi recounted how the Lebanese President was compelled to mention the opposition in a speech when Lebanon was chosen by UNESCO to be the World Book Capital for 2009. Despite the fact it was a cultural event, far removed from politics, Audi asserted, politicians are obliged to include the opposition. While Audi said he understood why politicians need to try to strike a balance, he argued that placating Hizballah and the opposition has gone too far. ¶5. (C) Hizballah is Iran, Audi claimed, adding that Aoun believes himself to be the opposition leader while he is but one leader among many. (The Archbishop also expressed disdain for Aoun's December, 2008 visit to Syria.) Holding allegiance to Iran and Lebanon at the same time, the BEIRUT 00000538 002 OF 002 Archbishop insisted, was impossible -- it is not like holding allegiance to France and the European Union. Iran is an outside entity wielding its influence; Audi marveled that accusations can be leveled effectively against politicians for being "pro-U.S." while no one ever gets accused of being "pro-Iranian." Iran, Audi said, is championing the Shi'a cause via remote control and Hizballah is its clone in Lebanon. Christians Increasingly "Not In The Formula" -------------- ¶6. (C) Audi aired his fears that the Christian demographic was slowly disappearing while the Shi'a population was exploding. Former President Emile Lahoud once told the Archbishop the Christian population of Lebanon was around 24.5%; meanwhile, Audi added, Hizballah officials brag they can increase their own population by 100,000 in one year. Shi'a authorities, according to Audi, give religious orders to women to have children while the Christian population shrinks. Lebanon without Christians, Audi maintained, is not Lebanon. According to the Archbishop, Christians, even now, are coming to realize they are "not in the formula." Instead, he said, it has become a competition between Shi'a and Sunna and the two cannot stand one another. ¶7. (C) The Archbishop claimed he was afraid when he learned of the release of the generals accused of involvement in the Hariri assassination and he wondered if an election deal had been struck. If the international effort fails to bring justice to those who committed political assassinations, Audi said, there will be a Sunni-Shi'a war in the region. The Sunni population, he said, has grown more and more mistrustful as Iran's ambitions of empire are emboldened throughout the Middle East and North Africa. ¶8. (C) While Iran poses a danger; Audi assured that if Israel was to attack them, Lebanon would undoubtedly suffer. The Archbishop also expressed doubts that there is any Israeli political will to give more land back to the Palestinians and he wondered aloud if Hizballah doesn't provide Israel a convenient excuse not to. ¶9. (C) While Audi admitted he enjoyed the ardor surrounding the Lebanese political season, he said he knew it would not last. Election promises, he claimed, would be forgotten within days of the election ending. It would be better, he joked, if the election cycle could be every two years so the Lebanese could at least benefit more frequently from pre-election energy and development projects. ¶10. (C) Audi expressed appreciation for strong statements in support of Lebanon made by Secretary of State Clinton and U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice. ¶11. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable. SISON