LEBANON: PM: GHAJAR WITHDRAWAL WOULD SHOW THAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000534

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PTER PREF UNSC FR IR IS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PM: GHAJAR WITHDRAWAL WOULD SHOW THAT
DIPLOMACY WORKS

REF: BEIRUT 485

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a May 9 meeting with NEA Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State David Hale, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora expressed the need for March 14's leaders to come
together in the run-up to the June 7 parliamentary elections.
Siniora added that the release of the four generals would
not have a big impact for either side in the elections, but
Israel's return of Ghajar could help, as it would demonstrate
that moderates could achieve results through diplomacy as
opposed to violence.


2. (C) Siniora stated his support for the Obama
Administration's outreach to Syria and Iran, as isolation
only strengthened such regimes. However, Siniora cautioned
against reaching out too quickly. Siniora told DAS Hale that
the U.S. should involve others such as the EU and Russia in
the administration's efforts towards Palestinian-Israeli
peace. Siniora added that recent comments from the Obama
Administration signaling that USG policy towards Lebanon will
not change as we engage with others were a good sign, and he
repeated his usual statement that Lebanon should be at the
bargaining table, not on it. End Summary.

MARCH 14 MUST WORK
TOGETHER TO WIN ELECTIONS
--------------


3. (C) Visiting NEA DAS David Hale, accompanied by
Ambassador, DCM, and Poloff, met with PM Siniora and his
advisor Roula Noureddine at his office in the Grand Serail on
May 9. A relaxed Siniora, who has been campaigning on
weekends for an MP seat in his home city of Sidon, opened by
saying that success in the upcoming June 7 parliamentary
elections depends on March 14's ability to work together as a
unified coalition. This message needs to be repeated daily
to March 14 leaders, Amine Gemayel (Kataeb),Samir Geagea
(Lebanese Forces),and Walid Jumblatt (Progressive Socialist
Party),Siniora urged. Otherwise, March 14 will suffer
defeat in the elections. (Note: Siniora specifically cited
as a problem the Lebanese Forces naming a U.S.-based Armenian
dentist to run for one of the Armenian seats in Beirut
district I, even though the Armenians in this district do not
support this candidate. End Note.) Regarding his own
candidacy in the election, Siniora said he had not intended
to run for parliament, but the thought of the opposition
winning a seat in Sidon convinced him to throw his hat in the
ring.

RELEASE OF FOUR GENERALS
--------------


4. (C) Siniora said the Special Tribunal's decision to
release the four generals had less of a negative impact than
he originally believed (reftel),adding that those who are
with us are still with us and those who are against us still
oppose us. He noted that their release did not prove the
generals were innocent, and that their behavior and
statements to the media since their release have brought back
the ghosts of the past.

IRAN
--------------


5. (C) Regarding USG policy towards Iran, Siniora worried
that Iran's rhetoric portraying itself as the defender of
Islam and its continued "hijacking" of the Palestinian issue
boosted the Iranian regime's credentials and increased its
regional influence. However, Siniora supported the idea of

BEIRUT 00000534 002 OF 003


dialogue with Iran because isolation only helps prop-up such
regimes. However, Siniora also urged the USG to be firm with
Iran in this dialogue, especially over Iran's desire to
acquire nuclear weapons. A solution to the Arab-Israeli
conflict would also take from Iran one of its hijacked
causes.


6. (C) Noureddine asked DAS Hale if the Iran issue
superseded the issue of Palestinian-Israeli peace. DAS Hale
responded that during Middle East Special Envoy George
Mitchell's recent travel to twelve Arab countries, the
priority expressed by Arab leaders has been how to deal with
the Iranian threat. For them, the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict is only a sub-set of the Iranian problem, DAS Hale
added, but an urgent one. There was every reason to pursue
an agenda with Iran and work for Arab-Israeli peace
simultaneously.

SYRIA
--------------


7. (C) Siniora said Syria's regional priorities were clear.
Syrian leaders want to defend the regime, have influence
vis-a-vis Lebanon and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from
the Golan Heights. Siniora encouraged U.S. discussions with
Syria, adding that U.S. engagement with Syria would curb
Iran's increasing influence in the region. However, he
cautioned the U.S. to approach its engagement with Syria
without making any "advanced payment." DAS Hale replied that
the U.S. administration shared that view and is sincere in
engaging other countries. This new tactic of engagement
would put U.S. enemies on the defensive.


8. (C) Noureddine asked about Syria's efforts to give itself
a role vis-a-vis Hamas. DAS Hale responded that in USG
discussions with Syrian officials, the regime claimed
variously to have no influence over Hamas, or that Hamas, as
a political entity was free to adopt its chosen positions.
He added that the USG has responded to such claims from Syria
by saying that it would be difficult to support a
Syrian-Israeli track if Syria was undercutting the
Palestinian-Israeli track and supporting terrorist
organization such as Hizballah and Hamas. DAS Hale added
that the U.S. would not sacrifice Palestinian-Israeli efforts
for Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations, just as the U.S. would
not make any deals with Syria at the expense of Lebanon's
sovereignty and independence.

ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE
--------------


9. (C) Turning to the issue of Arab-Israeli peace, Siniora
reiterated his belief that such a peace would reduce the
influence of extremists and increase that of moderates in the
region. Siniora urged the U.S. to involve the EU and the
Russians in its Middle East peace efforts and urged the U.S.
to explain the risks of a lack of Israeli-Palestinian peace
to the EU and Russia, which borders a number of Muslim
countries. Siniora reiterated that the lack of progress on
this issue only strengthened the view of extremists in the
region and weakened moderates. Middle East Special Envoy
George Mitchell's visits to the region should be coupled with
positive actions from the Israelis, he added.


10. (C) In response, DAS Hale said the U.S. has been working
with the EU and Arab countries on this issue. Russia has
also been helpful. DAS Hale downplayed recent rumors that
the Arab Peace Initiative (API) would be amended, saying that
API was not a treaty, but a set of principles. DAS Hale
added that the API was a good foundation on which to build
Arab-Israeli peace and that the U.S. would be active in
supporting this proposal. What we were looking for at this
stage were Arab gestures in the context of Israeli steps
which, together, could create a climate conducive to peace

BEIRUT 00000534 003 OF 003


negotiations.

GHAJAR
--------------


11. (C) Siniora said the Israeli return of Ghajar is an
important issue because it would demonstrate that diplomacy
works, and that force is not the answer. The PM noted that
he had to distance himself from recent Israeli press articles
stating that Israel would return Ghajar to Lebanon before the
elections to give a boost to the Siniora government so that
his opponents could not claim he has Israeli support. He
added that Israeli fears that the withdrawal would be
portrayed as a victory for Hizballah were ironic, because
Israel had already delivered a victory to Hizballah by
returning some of the groups fighters directly to Hizballah,
instead of the GOL, in July 2008.

POSSIBLE GEORGE MITCHELL VISIT?
--------------


12. (C) In a discussion of a possible visit by Special Envoy
for Middle East Peace George Mitchell, Siniora said the topic
of Palestinian refugees should be on the agenda, specifically
the issue of avoiding permanent resettlement of the refugees
in Lebanon (referred to as "tawteen" in Arabic). Siniora
urged Mitchell to visit President Sleiman, Parliament Speaker
Berri, and the new PM during a visit.


13. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable.
SISON