LEBANON: ECONOMY MINISTER WANTS SAAD HARIRI AS THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000531

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ECONOMY MINISTER WANTS SAAD HARIRI AS THE
NEXT PM, REGARDLESS OF THE ELECTIONS' OUTCOME

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Economy and Trade Minister and MP Mohammed Safadi
declared that current majority leader Saad Hariri should be
the next PM, regardless of whether Hariri's March 14
coalition or opposition March 8 holds the majority after the
June 7 parliamentary elections. Safadi, who is allied with
Hariri for the upcoming vote, expressed his concern that some
voters in his home district of Tripoli may be enticed to
cross off a name or two rather than voting for the full March
14 list. Safadi told us he intended to leave March 14 after
the elections because he felt sidelined in the coalition, and
suggested that he may join a bloc allied with President
Sleiman. According to Safadi, relations between Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun and Sleiman
deteriorated drastically after Aoun allegedly demanded
Sleiman's tenure be shortened after June 7. End summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with
Economy and Trade Minister and MP Mohammed Safadi at his
office on May 11. Safadi attributed the harsh line of
questioning he received regarding WTO accession at a recent
Lebanese American Chamber of Commerce event to industrialist
Fady Abboud, explaining that Abboud is a member of the Syrian
Social Nationalist Party and was motivated by politics rather
than substantive WTO issues.

SAAD HARIRI SHOULD
BE NEXT PM, PERIOD
--------------


3. (C) Safadi declared that, in his view, current majority
leader Saad Hariri should be the next PM, regardless of
whether March 14 or March 8 holds the majority after the June
7 parliamentary elections. Safadi, who was to meet later in
the day with Hariri, reasoned that Saad has a "unifying
character" needed in the next government and is the "sole
leader" of the Sunnis.


4. (C) Safadi (who in the past also has been cited as a
possible PM contender) added that this may be Saad's only
opportunity to serve as Prime Minister. According to Safadi,
Saad wants this position, but believes he needs to be
supported by the "right" people. (Note: In a May 12
conversation with Ambassador, MP Nayla Mouawad was adamant
that she would quit the March 14 coalition if Saad Hariri
took the position of Prime Minister in a March 8-led
government. End note.) Safadi said he would advise Saad not
to wait for the outcome of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon
before forging a working relationship with Syria.


5. (C) Noting that Lebanon is challenged on three fronts --
Israel, Syria, and Iran -- Safadi said that Lebanon would
benefit from reaching some sort of agreement with one of the
countries. He suggested that Syria offers the "easiest"
track, and that Lebanon cannot rid itself of Hizballah
without Syria.

TRIPOLI VOTERS MAY NOT
CHOOSE FULL MARCH 14 LIST
--------------


6. (C) Safadi, who is running on March 14's list in Tripoli,
complained that there are problems with ensuring voters will
select the full list. He relayed that he was hearing of an
arrangement between March 14 leader Saad Hariri and current
March 14 MP Mosbah Ahdab, who was excluded from the March 14
list (but announced his own independent list on May 9). Saad
was tacitly hinting that Sunni voters in Tripoli should cross
off a candidate from the list and write in Ahdab's name,
complained Safadi. (Comment: We have heard a similar rumor,
naming Ahmed Karame as the March 14 candidate to eliminate in
favor of Ahdab. End comment.)


7. (C) Safadi estimated that the March 14 list could attract

BEIRUT 00000531 002 OF 003


35,000 votes. He worried that if people were aware of this
number, they may feel encouraged to throw their support
behind Ahdab, believing it would not significantly affect the
outcome. However, Safadi warned, if too many people thought
this way, then the votes for March 14's list would be diluted
and the opposition's chances increased, namely, those of
former PM and March 8 candidate Omar Karame (who is Ahmad
Karame's cousin). Omar Karame reportedly already has 17,000
votes guaranteed because of his ties to Syria.


8. (C) According to Safadi, Hizballah is seizing this
opportunity, reaching out to Tripoli heavyweight Najib
Mikati's supporters, offering to pay them to cross off a
name, and paying even more for two names scratched out. Omar
Karame is running a "well-organized and well-funded" campaign
managed by Hizballah, Safadi said. He expected to see a
significant increase in campaign spending, by all parties, in
the final week before the elections. He noted that March 8
controls most of the media and spends the most money.


9. (C) Equally "dangerous," Safadi posited that former
Minister Jean Obeid, with close relations to the Syrians, may
rely on these ties to get elected because he was not included
in March 14's list and may run as an independent. This would
draw votes away from March 14's Maronite Christian candidate,
Samer Saadeh. He suggested that some March 14 candidates in
Tripoli are not throwing their support behind Saadeh.
Fearing that several March 14 candidates cannot be counted on
to encourage their supporters to vote for the whole list,
Safadi stated that he was certain to bring 10,000 voters who
will select the full list.


10. (C) He added that he was not concerned about violence
breaking out in the Bab al-Tabbaneh/Jbeil Mohsen areas (near
Tripoli) prior to elections, but that attention should be
refocused on calming tensions there after June 7. He also
raised the issues f Sunni/Shia tensions, and of the
Palestinian refugees, who are angry at the delay in Nahr
al-Bari Palestinian refugee camp reconstruction.

I WILL LEAVE MARCH 14
AFTER THE ELECTIONS...
--------------


11. (C) While a cameraman was in the room filming, Safadi
disclosed that he told Saad he (Safadi) did not have a role
to play in March 14, and that he intended to leave the
coalition after the elections. If Saad wanted him to stay,
he continued, he would need to be given a positive role.
Safadi complained that all of the decisions are made by Saad,
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt, noting that the full March 14 group had not met in
some time.


12. (C) Safadi also relayed that he proposed to Saad he would
join a bloc affiliated with President Sleiman and that he
would give Saad his vote for March 14 to maintain a majority,
but that he wanted to leave the alliance. (Comment: This is
not surprising, as pollsters have been classifying Safadi, as
well as former PM Najib Mikati, as independents when
calculating how many seats March 14 could win. End comment.)


...AS COULD JUMBLATT
--------------


13. (C) Noting that Speaker Nabih Berri and Jumblatt have
been "making nice," Safadi wondered if Jumblatt would leave
March 14 after the elections. He expressed sympathy for
Sleiman having to deal with three separate groups claiming to
be "the centrist bloc." (Note: Press reported Berri and
Saad Hariri met on May 12. Ambassador will meet with Saad
May 14 to follow up End note.)

RELATIONS DETERIORATE
BETWEEN AOUN AND SLEIMAN
--------------


14. (C) According to Safadi, relations between Free Patriotic

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Movement leader Michel Aoun and President Sleiman are
"deteriorating fast" after Aoun reportedly said he would
demand to shorten Sleiman's term after June 7. (Note and
comment: In local press reports on May 12, Aoun called
Sleiman an "accomplice" for not responding to the allegations
that Aoun had demanded a shortened tenure. Elie Khoury,
advisor to Geagea, shared with A/DCM on May 11 rumors that
Aoun is imposing conditions on candidates who wish to run on
his lists, including agreement to support Aoun's efforts to
topple Sleiman from the presidency. Khoury claimed Fares
Boueiz refused this condition, which is why he was excluded
from Aoun's list in Keserwan. End note and comment.)


15. (C) Safadi warned that independent MP Michel Murr was
"overly confident" in believing he would defeat Aoun's list
in Metn. He argued that Aoun was continuing to present
himself as the "protector of Christians" and painting the
Sunnis as the "menace," urging the so-called minorities
(Christians, Allawites, and Shia) to bond together in
defense. Jumblatt's remarks against the Christians only
bolstered Aoun's argument, Safadi said.


16. (C) He lamented that Tripoli was an underserved city and
a "time bomb." He also complained about March 14 Transport
and Public Work Minister Ghazi Aridi's proposal to expand the
Beirut port, which Safadi believed would be at the detriment
of Tripoli's port. He expected the Council of Ministers
would vote on the issue on May 13, and feared that they
lacked the information to make a knowledgeable decision.

SISON