LEBANON: SPEAKER BERRI ON ELECTIONS, JUMBLATT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000482 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT OVP FOR HMUSTAFA DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019 TAGS: PGOV ECON LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: SPEAKER BERRI ON ELECTIONS, JUMBLATT, SINIORA REF: A. BEIRUT 472 ¶B. BEIRUT 466 ¶C. BEIRUT 421 ¶D. BEIRUT 222 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In an April 27 meeting with the Ambassador, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said he had come to agreement with Majority Leader Saad Hariri on a way forward in the Beirut 2 electoral district, but was still at an impasse with his opposition Christian ally Michel Aoun on candidates in Jezzine. Berri declared he had respect for Walid Jumblatt as a politician, saying Jumblatt's leaked comments criticizing his March 14 allies (Ref B) reflected his sensitivity to the political winds of change. He criticized the feudal politics of Lebanon and spoke of the importance of the army and national policy initiatives as a means of breaking down the tribal system. Berri said the election results would not change the parliamentary balance much, based on current alliances, but that he and Jumblatt might consider joining a presidential bloc after the elections. ¶2. (C) Berri worried that PM Siniora's candidacy for a parliamentary seat in Sidon would increase the likelihood of violent clashes there. Berri said he did not understand why PM Siniora had not put the 2009 budget on the cabinet agenda, given that Berri and Finance Minister Chatah had come to agreement on the budget for the Council for the South (Refs C and D). He hypothesized that Siniora wanted to sabotage the government. Berri believes nothing will come out of the National Dialogue or parliamentary sessions before the elections. He said he had told Arab League SYG Amre Moussa that the Egyptians should stop their vocal criticisms of Hizballah and let the Egyptian court system decide the fate of Hizballah members arrested in Egypt, for the sake of stability in Lebanon. Berri was positive about Secretary Clinton's April 26 visit to Beirut, and appreciated her words of support for free and fair elections. End summary. STILL IN CONFLICT WITH AOUN JUMBLATT A "FRIEND-ENEMY" -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/EconOff, called on Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri April 27 at his office in Ain el-Tineh. Berri advisor Ali Hamdan also attended the meeting. Berri said he had a successful meeting with March 14 Future Movement leader Saad Hariri on April 25, and they agreed that they would work together to ensure the victory of Future's Sunni candidate in the Beirut 2 district, per a pact reached at Doha in May 2008 to split the four seats between the current opposition and majority. Berri explained that the current Sunni opposition MP in the district, Assem Araji, has thus far refused to withdraw from the election. Berri reassured Hariri that he would use his "electoral machine" in favor of Hariri's candidate. ¶4. (C) Berri reported he was not making progress, however, with his Christian ally Michel Aoun in determining the opposition candidate list for Jezzine. Aoun wants to name all three candidates for the all-Christian list, while Berri stood behind the candidacy of current Amal MP Samir Azar. Berri told the Ambassador that Azar is "the most powerful man in Jezzine," with a reputation for integrity, and he would not back down no matter how much Aoun insisted. "It is a question of Aoun's ambition," exclaimed Berri. "He wants everything, everything, everything!" ¶5. (C) Berri assessed that March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's leaked comments criticizing his March 14 allies (Ref B) were a political tactic, and expressed appreciation for Jumblatt's skills as a politician, regardless of his BEIRUT 00000482 002 OF 003 current alliances. "If your adversary is reasonable, you cannot hate him," said Berri, "but if you have a friend who is stupid, it is a problem," he added in a veiled reference to Aoun. He called Jumblatt his "friend-enemy," with whom he had a good relationship, and said it ws in Jumblatt's nature to adapt to the politicalclimate, however it might change. "In this case,I like the change, so why not?" asked Berri. ¶6. (C) Berri said he had attempted to cut a deal with Hariri in Sidon as well, to continue the current arrangement in which the majority and opposition split the seats in the district, but Future decided to run both Bahia Hariri and PM Fouad Siniora for Sidon's two seats, eschewing an arrangement. Berri worried that Siniora's candidacy would spark violence in the volatile area around Sidon, where the Ain el-Hilwe Palestinian refugee camp lies. (Note: Ambassador's 4/27 meeting with Siniora reported septel. End note.) FEUDAL POLITICS -------------- ¶7. (C) With regard to independent Shia figure Ahmad Al-Assad, leader of the Lebanese Option Gathering (LOG),Berri said he knew Assad himself was planning to run in Marjeyoun (Ref A). Berri assessed, "he has a good chance... to lose!" Even Assad's father opposed his candidacy, said Berri, and in any event, Assad is not popular, as part of a feudal family that dominated the south for 400 years. The Assads have been around longer than the Jumblatts, Berri explained, and are part of the feudal system. ¶8. (C) Berri pointed to recent events in the Bekaa Valley, in which feuding families turned to violence to protect their financial interests, often involving criminal smuggling or drug production, as another problem associated with the "tribal system" in Lebanon. He stressed that the Lebanese state had ignored these areas. The only way to eliminate the influence of these families was to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and initiate state policies to support development, offering people legitimate job opportunities and stimulating the economy. JUMBLATT AND BERRI WITH THE PRESIDENT? -------------- ¶9. (C) Berri said the June 7 parliamentary elections would be very close, but ultimately only 2-4 seats would determine the opposition and the majority. He was against the idea of President Michel Sleiman backing his own slate of candidates before the elections, but believed the President could gather his own parliamentary bloc post-elections. "I am not against that idea," he said. "Walid Jumblatt might join such a group. I may join as well." SINIORA BLOCKING THE BUDGET NOTHING FROM PARLIAMENT, NATIONAL DIALOGUE BEFORE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Berri noted that after numerous meetings with PM Siniora over the budget for the Council for the South, he had worked with Finance Minister Chatah and found a compromise that could move the 2009 budget forward in the cabinet (Refs C and D). He was perplexed as to why the cabinet had not yet voted on the issue, and theorized that PM Siniora was determined to make the current government a failure, to discredit the concept of the opposition's blocking third in the cabinet. He claimed he had asked Siniora following the May 2008 Doha agreement to work with him to accomplish the country's objectives during the year-long tenure of the current government, but he had not been cooperative. Meanwhile, Berri expounded on the Council's assistance projects not just in the south, but all over Lebanon, serving all confessions. He showed the Ambassador a letter from Sunni mayors in the West Bekaa, advocating for the continuation of Council for the South projects there. BEIRUT 00000482 003 OF 003 ¶11. (C) Berri remarked that he had not been able to keep a quorum in parliament sessions over the past month, and objected to March 14's absence from the sessions because of its opposition to a proposed law eliminating the gasoline excise tax. He said the majority could at least attend the sessions to pass other legislation, and they could leave immediately before a vote if the excise tax made it to the top of the agenda. Regardless, he was not hopeful the parliament could achieve a quorum during the next session on May 7, and added that if that is the case, he will not call further sessions before the elections. ¶12. (C) Similarly, Berri predicted that the National Dialogue would not show any results before the elections. He said he had told Hariri during their meeting that he would not object to the suspension of the Dialogue until after the elections. (Note: The April 28 National Dialogue session adjourned without fanfare; the participants called for holding the June 7 elections in a calm and democratic atmosphere. A seventh round will be held June 1. End note.) SECRETARY'S VISIT -------------- ¶13. (C) Berri spoke positively about Secretary Clinton's April 26 visit to Beirut and her message in support of transparent elections free from interference and intimidation. He particularly appreciated that she met with President Sleiman, showing support for the institution of the presidency. CALMING THE RHETORIC BETWEEN EGYPT AND HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶14. (C) Berri said he had spoken to Arab League SYG Amre Moussa during Moussa's April 25 visit to Beirut. With regard to the arrest of members of an alleged Hizballah cell in Cairo, Berri noted he had passed the same message to Moussa as he had passed to Egyptian President Mubarak through other channels: Egypt should calm its rhetoric against Hizballah, and simply pursue the case against the cell members through the Egyptian justice system. Berri reported he had stressed to Moussa that continued harsh words on both sides could threaten Lebanon's stability. COMMENT -------------- ¶15. (C) Berri's kind words about Walid Jumblatt and the Secretary's visit, his criticism of Aoun, his "moderate" language about the importance of strengthening the LAF, as well as his acknowledgment that he is considering joining a presidential parliamentary bloc after the elections suggest he may be positioning himself already for the post-election scenario. At this point, he and Jumblatt appear to be keeping their options open. However, Berri was careful to avoid saying anything that might have been construed as critical to Hizballah. End comment. SISON