LEBANON: MIKATI CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000443 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL STATE PASS TO OVP FOR HMUSTAFA USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PTER LE SY EG SUBJECT: LEBANON: MIKATI CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTORAL OUTCOME, BUT SAYS RACE WILL BE CLOSE REF: A. BEIRUT 427 ¶B. BEIRUT 247 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Former Prime Minister Najib Mikati told the Ambassador April 14 that he had compromised with March 14 majority leader Saad Hariri on the candidate list in Tripoli, saying it was far better for the two to work together rather than compete at the expense of the Sunni-dominated community. Mikati predicted March 14 would fare well in the June 7 parliamentary elections, although the race would be close. Opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun's popularity was still high, he assessed. Mikati said that President Sleiman needed a core group of eight to ten independent MPs to support him and to work towards strengthening the capacity of state institutions. With the post-electoral timeline, Mikati explained, it was not likely that the new government would be in place before mid-July. On regional issues, Mikati worried that Egypt would create problems for Lebanon if Egypt pushed to have Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah placed on Interpol's wanted persons list. He was supportive of President Obama's outreach to the Arab world and believed the response should be positive. End summary. ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Prime Minister and independent parliamentary candidate in the June 7 elections Najib Mikati told the Ambassador and POLOFF April 14 that he would compromise with the candidates of Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri and join Hariri's list in Tripoli. Mikati, a wealthy Sunni business leader from Tripoli, said it was better to seek compromise -- "even if it was wrong" -- for the good of the Sunni community. He chose to enter the race to present a moderate image of Tripoli, he declared. In his district, Mikati said he was most concerned that the Alawite candidate on Hariri's Future party slate was weak and not a candidate the Alawite community would support. This could be the beginning of a problem that could lead to electoral violence between Tripoli's Sunni and Alawite sects, he said. ¶3. (C) Mikati predicted that Hariri and his March 14 coalition would fare well in the elections, although the outcome would be very close. He said current PM Fouad Siniora would not have an easy task in winning his electoral bid in Saida, but would be successful. Mikati cautioned, however, that opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun's popularity was still high and that many Christian voters "have an appetite" for his rhetoric. He said Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement candidates might win a "good number" of seats. ¶4. (C) Mikati complained that the electoral law was "very severe" in its restrictions on campaign advertising and spending. To avoid penalties, he said he requested supporters take down some of his posters in Tripoli. (Note: During the Ambassador's April 6 visit to Tripoli, ref A, posters for Mikati, Minister of Economy and Trade Safadi, and Saad Hariri were visible on almost every corner. End note.) Mikati did not view as a problem the Cabinet's delay in appointing the five remaining judges to the constitutional court. The five judges already appointed by parliament, he said, were all well-qualified for the position. (Note: The constitutional court is the legal body responsible for adjudicating electoral disputes. It requires the appointment of ten judges, five by the cabinet and five by parliament, before it can begin its work. Political disputes have blocked the formation of the court -- ref B. End note.) WHAT SLEIMAN NEEDS BEIRUT 00000443 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. (C) Mikati observed that the process of state-building was difficult. He said an April 13 attack on a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) patrol in the Bekaa valley proved that "curing" one institution was not enough, if the others were still "sick," such as the Justice Ministry or the Internal Security Forces (the police). He called President Sleiman "wise," and credited him for acting as an arbitrator between Lebanon's political factions. If the electoral outcome produced a moderate majority, including a group of eight to ten independents, then Sleiman would be strengthened, he theorized. Among the independents, Mikati believed that he, current Minister of Culture Tammam Salaam (Sunni),and presidential advisor Nazem Khoury (Christian) were among those who could bring about this change. ¶6. (C) Opposition-aligned Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, he assessed, also would support "real initiatives" to strengthen the Lebanese state. Recalling his long relationship with Berri, Mikati characterized Berri as the most competent person in the Amal party. Sleiman would also benefit from a cabinet that included ministers who were not slaves to their political parties, but believed in strengthening state institutions. Mikati suggested that the ideal number of cabinet ministers should be 18-19, rather than the current 30. The reduced number, he explained, could provide Sleiman a good team that worked well together. (Note: When Mikati was Prime Minister for three months in 2005, there were 14 ministerial posts. He said he ultimately judged the number inadequate, as some ministers had to carry double portfolios. End note.) ¶7. (C) Mikati assessed that nothing would change unless all of Lebanon's political factions committed to real change. He said it was unrealistic to expect this change overnight, but maintained that change could be possible over the long-term. POST-ELECTION TIMELINE -------------- ¶8. (C) Mikati predicted the following post-election timeline: -- The current parliament's mandate would terminate on June 30 (others have told us June 19/20). -- On July 1, a caretaker government would begin. -- July 2 or 3, parliament would meet to elect a Speaker. -- Following the election of Speaker of Parliament, the President would begin the process of cabinet formation, beginning by asking a presumptive prime minister to seek to form a government. ¶9. (C) Mikati noted the speed of the government's formation would depend on the results of the parliamentary elections. He said President Sleiman shared his views about the need to focus on state building, and both rejected the idea of "the blocking third." (Note: Currently, Hizballah and the opposition have a blocking third in the cabinet (ten plus one ministerial seats). This veto power was a concession that resulted from the May 2008 Doha Accord that ended the political crisis and paved the way for the election of compromise candidate Michel Sleiman. End note.) REGIONAL OUTLOOK -------------- ¶10. (C) Turning to regional issues, Mikati said the escalation in tensions between Egypt and Hizballah was "serious." Mikati supported Egypt's plan to prosecute suspected Hizballah operatives in Egypt. However, if Egypt planned to have Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah listed as a wanted person through Interpol, it would create huge problems and headaches for Lebanon, Mikati worried. ¶11. (C) Mikati said the Arab world and Iran should not "lose the opportunity" with President Obama. He called President Obama's April 6 speech in Turkey "great" and suggested that BEIRUT 00000443 003 OF 003 regional governments should respond positively to these friendly messages. Mikati observed that Syrian President Bashar Asad had matured since he first took office in 2000 and had become more practical. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Mikati did not raise the prospect of his becoming prime minister at this meeting, although he is clearly positioning himself as a compromise choice no matter which side wins a majority of parliamentary seats. He continues to be viewed by many as too close to Damascus, although he is nonetheless widely respected for his business acumen and international reputation. Mikati's assessment of the post election timeline makes sense to us, which may mean no new government until mid-July at the earliest. End Comment. SISON