LEBANON: DEFMIN MURR MAKES A PLEA FOR MORE U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000400 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR PM ACTING A/S RUGGIERO P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2019 TAGS: PREL MCAP PGOV PTER PINR MARR MOPS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: DEFMIN MURR MAKES A PLEA FOR MORE U.S. MILITARY SUPPORT, DISCUSSES UPCOMING ELECTIONS REF: A. BEIRUT 383 ¶B. BEIRUT 373 ¶C. BEIRUT 235 ¶D. 2008 BEIRUT 1780 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On the eve of his trip to Washington, Defense Minister Elias Murr discussed the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) many successes and credited U.S. military assistance. Deeply appreciative of U.S. support, Murr, a leader within Lebanon's Greek Orthodox community, made a plea for an additional close-air support deliverable to demonstrate to moderate Lebanese Christians (whose votes key swing districts are expected to determine the outcome of the June 7 parliamentary elections) and continued U.S. support for the moderates in Lebanon. Noting that Russia remained intent on providing MiG-29 fighter aircraft to the LAF, Murr remained firm that Lebanon would not accept this delivery "before 2040." Backed up by poll results, Murr predicted that his father, MP Michel Murr, and seven allied March 14 candidates in the key Metn district would defeat Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun by winning all eight seats, if/if neutral voting officials manned the polling places. Murr was less certain in other districts, criticizing several of the March 14 leaders for internal bickering over seats. According to Murr, President Michel Sleiman was disappointed independent Christian candidates were pulling out of the race and was also feeling increasingly frustrated with Hizballah. End summary. LAF SUCCESSES ARISING FROM U.S. SUPPORT -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with Defense Minister Elias Murr at his home in Rabieh April 4, on the eve of Murr's departure for Washington. They spoke of the many successes resulting from the U.S. assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),including the LAF's ongoing counterterrorism efforts, its work in Nahr al-Barid and other Palestinian refugee camps, its joint patrols with UNIFIL and implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in controlling the area south of the Litani River, the LAF Common Border Force plan in curbing weapons smuggling from the northern and eastern borders, and the destruction of Man Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) missiles in LAF depots (Ref B). Murr also mentioned the LAF's perfect record of end-use accountability. MURR MAKES A PLEA FOR ANOTHER DELIVERABLE FROM THE U.S. -------------- ¶3. (C) Looking forward to meeting SecDef Gates and other U.S. officials in Washington, Murr noted that he would be the first Christian political figure from the Middle East to go to Washington since Obama's election. Appreciative of the anticipated May shipment of military equipment from the U.S. (Ref C) and the impending arrival of the Caravan, Murr made a plea for the announcement of an additional close-air support deliverable from the U.S. during his trip. Murr requested "some sort of aviation to sell to Christian voters during the elections." He clarified that he knew it was unreasonable to expect an actual deliverable before the June 7 parliamentary elections, but argued that an announcement of something to come from the U.S. would be ideal in demonstrating continued U.S. support for the moderates in Lebanon. He also suggested that a U.S. push for UAE provision of 10 Hawks (from the UAE's inventory of 30 Hawks to be retired) would be welcome. ¶4. (C) Murr feared Hizballah and Free Patriotic Movement opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun would attack him in the headlines if he returned from the U.S. "empty-handed." BEIRUT 00000400 002 OF 003 He stressed that he remained firmly opposed to Hizballah, saying, "I paid too much to change my policy," referring to the 2005 assassination attempt against him. The Ambassador and Murr also discussed ongoing counterterrorism cooperation. RUSSIA STILL INTENT TO GIVE MIG-29S -------------- ¶5. (C) Murr relayed that the Russian Defense Minister wants to visit Lebanon. He added that the Russians have been asking when the LAF officers would go to Russia for training on the MiG-29s it offered to the LAF in December (Ref D). Murr said he had already begun hinting to the Russians that he did not want the fighter aircraft. He reiterated to the Ambassador that Lebanon would not be accepting the MiG-29s for a long time, "not before 2040!" he stressed. EXPECTS MARCH 14 TO WIN METN -------------- ¶6. (C) Murr is the scion of the Metn district's pre-eminent political family. Metn remains a critical electoral district, Murr reasoned, explaining that if March 14 can win the seven of eight seats Aoun's bloc currently holds in Metn, it will retain the majority in parliament. Murr argued that if Aoun lost the Metn seats, it would give President Michel Sleiman the ability to form his own bloc of parliamentarians post-election. This could lead to division of the 30 seats in the next cabinet on the basis of ten-ten-ten (March 14, March 8, and President Sleiman). ¶7. (C) Producing a "house-by-house" poll his father, MP Michel Murr, had conducted on April 1 in their Metn district, Murr concluded that his father's list would win by 6,000 votes over Aoun's list. He said the Murrs would not publish the results so that Aoun would continue to believe he would win seven of the district's eight seats (the eighth going to Michel Murr). MARCH 14 INTERNAL FRICTION -------------- ¶8. (C) Expressing cautious optimism about March 14's overall prospects in the elections, Murr noted with approval that majority leader Saad Hariri had become much more focused on the elections recently. However, he said, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has been "hurting March 14 in the Christian regions" because of his perceived overtures to Hizballah. Sighing, he added, "We would win it all if (Kataeb leader and former president Amine) Gemayel and (Lebanese Forces leader Samir) Geagea were not involved -- people do not like either of them." ¶9. (C) Murr said he was concerned that March 14 still had not decided which candidates would run for each district. It needed to happen soon, he argued, so that March 14 could focus on putting out its message -- that voters will be choosing between an army, a government and a republic (March 14),or an army within an army, a government within a government and a state within a state (Hizballah-led opposition.) Murr claimed that Saad Hariri had not yet received campaign financing from the Saudis and wondered whether the Saudis were stalling or had decided to forgo financing March 14's campaign. CONCERNED ABOUT NEUTRALITY OF POLLING STATIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Worried about the neutrality of those operating the polling places on election day, Murr said he will request from the Interior Ministry the names of all of the employees nominated to work at Metn's polling places. He said he wanted to make sure that Aoun supporters do not try to derail the process by, for example, finding fault with legitimate BEIRUT 00000400 003 OF 003 identification cards. He would check all of the names with the LAF G-2 (military intelligence),he said, before approving their appointments. SLEIMAN: "I WILL FIGHT HIZBALLAH TO THE END" -------------- ¶11. (C) Recounting a recent conversation with President Sleiman, Murr said that the president was disappointed that the independent Christians were choosing not to run in the election, citing prominent industrialist Nemat Frem in particular. Sleiman reportedly conveyed to Murr his frustration with Hizballah, saying, "I will fight Hizballah to the end." Murr said he sensed a change in Sleiman's attitude toward Hizballah from when he was LAF Commander and believes that Sleiman is feeling increasingly hindered by Hizballah, hence the hardening of his attitude. ¶12. (C) Murr posited that Sleiman had expected Hizballah would not compete strongly against the President's former aide, Nazem Khoury, for a seat in Jbeil district. Sleiman realized now, however, that Hizballah would not make such an agreement and would strongly support its political ally Michel Aoun against Christian candidates, including Khoury. Sleiman saw that Hizballah's only "gift" to Sleiman was the presidency, Murr said. Murr claimed that Interior Minister Ziad Baroud had been making frequent visits to Michel Aoun's residence, which is near Murr's. When he passed this information on to Sleiman, Murr said, the president threatened Baroud with making him resign. (Note: Baroud and Murr hold two of the three ministries appointed by the president. End note.) SISON