LEBANON: MP HARB WITH FELTMAN, SHAPIRO: ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000282

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR A A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO
DOD/OSD FOR FOURNOY, KAHL, AND DALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MP HARB WITH FELTMAN, SHAPIRO: ELECTION
SECURITY IN SYRIA'S HANDS

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a March 8 meeting with Christian MP Butros Harb,
NEA A A/S Feltman, NSC Senior Director for the Middle East
and North Africa, and the Ambassador heard Harb caution that,
while Syria's "style" had changed, it was still involved in
Lebanon's electoral processes by selecting candidates,
vetting lists, and intimidating voters. Harb said A A/S
Feltman's and Shapiro's visit to Lebanon, both before and
after traveling to Damascus, was a clear message from the
U.S. to Syria about U.S. commitment to Lebanon's sovereignty.
Harb noted his personal security remained under threat, but
he continued to meet his supporters at his home.


2. (C) Harb emphasized to A A/S Feltman and NSC Senior
Director Shapiro that Lebanon's security situation, during
the run-up to the election, was wholly dependent on the
Syrians. He remarked that expatriates who are considering
traveling to Lebanon for the election are also worried about
security. He mentioned Syria's desire to see another
"national unity" government in Lebanon, so that the country's
political processes remained paralyzed. Harb stressed to A
A/S Feltman that Lebanon's problems are not only local, but
regional and international. He said "Lebanon must survive"
until the situation in Syria and Iran changes. Pertaining to
an upcoming non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council,
Harb acknowledged the political pressures that would come
with membership, but offered no advice on the matter. End
summary.

HARB ON SYRIA: WE FEEL THEIR HAND
--------------


3. (C) On March 8, NEA Acting A/S Jeffrey Feltman, NSC Senior
Director for the Middle East and North Africa Dan Shapiro,
and the Ambassador, accompanied by the DCM, Pol/Econ Section
chief, PolMilOff and senior political LES, met Christian MP
Butros Harb at his residence. Harb commended A A/S Feltman
and Shapiro for their comprehensive trip to Lebanon. He
noted their visit to Lebanon, both before and after traveling
to Damascus, was a clear message from the U.S. to Syria about
U.S. commitment to Lebanon's sovereignty. It would, however,
take more than one trip to make a strong impression on the
Syrians, Harb remarked. Harb warned that while Syria wanted
a greater "international role," and to avoid problems with
the U.S. or E.U., it still has "its hand" in Lebanon. Harb
encouraged the U.S. to remain focused on the region and the
PLO-Israeli peace talks.


4. (C) Syria has changed its "style," Harb said, but still
exerts its influence on elections by supporting candidates,
vetting lists, and intimidating voters. Harb emphasized to A
A/S Feltman that a good security situation during the
election period was dependent on Syrian action. Harb
characterized his personal security situation as "ok," saying
he maintained a strict regime of meeting supporters at home
and never discussing plans over the phone.

UNITY MEANS PARALYSIS
--------------


5. (C) Harb was confident the parliamentary elections would
occur on June 7 as scheduled. He believed the one day period
would take away the "Hizballah machine's" ability to
manipulate outcomes. Should March 14 win, Harb remarked that
Syria will push for a "national unity" government in order to
continue the current paralysis in the Lebanese government.
He was adamant that March 14 would not support the veto power
currently afforded the opposition with its blocking third in
the cabinet. He denounced the efforts of Syria and Iran to
influence the elections, and stressed that "Lebanon must
survive" until the situation in Syria and Iran changes.

LEBANON ON UN SECURITY COUNCIL
--------------

BEIRUT 00000282 002 OF 002




6. (C) Pertaining to a Lebanon's candidacy for a
non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, Harb noted the
political pressures on Lebanon that would come with
membership, for example, not being able to oppose UNSC action
against Iran, but offered no advice on the matter. A A/S
Feltman noted that membership could place Lebanon in voting
situations that could "tear it apart politically."


7. (U) NEA Acting Assistant Secretary Jeffrey D. Feltman and
NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa
Daniel Shapiro have cleared this message.

SISON