LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: JBEIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000280 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A A/S WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: JBEIL Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) This is the thirteenth in a series of snapshots we will produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. ¶2. (C) Jbeil (also known as Byblos) is a majority Christian district with a significant Shia (19 percent) minority. Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun's list won the district's three seats, two Maronite and one Shia, in 2005, and the FPM remains popular. Any candidate allied with Aoun can count on all of the Shia votes because of his alliance with Hizballah, which Shia voters widely support. President Michel Sleiman, born in Jbeil, could draw votes away from Aoun by endorsing independent candidates, one of whom most recently served as his political advisor. There is a plethora of March 14 candidates, and an inability on the part of March 14 to agree on a single list without acrimony could help Aoun's list. End summary. JBEIL: A BRIEF OVERVIEW -------------- ¶3. (U) The Phoenician city of Jbeil was named Byblos by the Greeks, and the two names are used interchangeably today. Many believe Jbeil is the oldest, continuously-inhabited city in the world. A tourist destination, Jbeil is home to several archaeological sites, including a crusader castle dating to the twelfth century. ¶4. (U) Jbeil is a majority Christian district with a significant (19 percent) Shia minority. (Note: Bint Jbeil ("daughter of Jbeil"),a predominately Shia district in southern Lebanon, received its name after the Shia in Jbeil escaped expulsion during the Middle Ages. End note.) There are two Maronite seats and one Shia seat. All three deputies are currently allied with Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun. President Michel Sleiman is a native of Amchit, a village in Jbeil. FACTORS AT PLAY IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) Aoun (and his March 8 allies) remains quite popular in Jbeil, with one poll indicating that his support is stronger than in five other predominately-Christian districts. Aoun's alliance with Hizballah means that any of his Christian candidates can count on all of the Shia votes, since Hizballah's influence in the Shia population throughout Lebanon is so strong. However, while the two FPM candidates and the Aoun-allied Shia candidate won by a sizable margins in 2005, President Sleiman enjoys a support base in Jbeil and has the potential to influence the elections there, tipping balance away from Aoun. ¶6. (C) Despite pressure from March 14 members, Sleiman is unlikely to form his own list, but could lend support to independent candidates. Nazem Khoury, who served as Sleiman's political advisor, resigned his position on Sleiman's staff in order to run for a deputy seat in Jbeil as an independent candidate. Khoury will be widely seen as Sleiman's candidate even if the President does not publicly endorse him. ¶7. (C) Disputes within March 14 over forming a list in Jbeil could also affect the elections. A large number of Christian March 14 members, including March 14 Secretariat SYG Fares Suaid, are considering running. If they do not agree on a single list and choose to run separately, they will take votes away from each other, helping the Aoun forces, who have been disciplined in forming their electoral list. SISON