Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BEIRUT280
2009-03-11 16:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:
LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: JBEIL
how-toVZCZCXRO6623 PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHLB #0280 0701605 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 111605Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4404 INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3564 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3767 RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000280
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: JBEIL
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000280
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: JBEIL
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (SBU) This is the thirteenth in a series of snapshots we
will produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the
run-up to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections.
2. (C) Jbeil (also known as Byblos) is a majority Christian
district with a significant Shia (19 percent) minority. Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun's list won the
district's three seats, two Maronite and one Shia, in 2005,
and the FPM remains popular. Any candidate allied with Aoun
can count on all of the Shia votes because of his alliance
with Hizballah, which Shia voters widely support. President
Michel Sleiman, born in Jbeil, could draw votes away from
Aoun by endorsing independent candidates, one of whom most
recently served as his political advisor. There is a
plethora of March 14 candidates, and an inability on the part
of March 14 to agree on a single list without acrimony could
help Aoun's list. End summary.
JBEIL: A BRIEF OVERVIEW
--------------
3. (U) The Phoenician city of Jbeil was named Byblos by the
Greeks, and the two names are used interchangeably today.
Many believe Jbeil is the oldest, continuously-inhabited city
in the world. A tourist destination, Jbeil is home to
several archaeological sites, including a crusader castle
dating to the twelfth century.
4. (U) Jbeil is a majority Christian district with a
significant (19 percent) Shia minority. (Note: Bint Jbeil
("daughter of Jbeil"),a predominately Shia district in
southern Lebanon, received its name after the Shia in Jbeil
escaped expulsion during the Middle Ages. End note.) There
are two Maronite seats and one Shia seat. All three deputies
are currently allied with Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
leader Michel Aoun. President Michel Sleiman is a native of
Amchit, a village in Jbeil.
FACTORS AT PLAY
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------
5. (C) Aoun (and his March 8 allies) remains quite popular in
Jbeil, with one poll indicating that his support is stronger
than in five other predominately-Christian districts. Aoun's
alliance with Hizballah means that any of his Christian
candidates can count on all of the Shia votes, since
Hizballah's influence in the Shia population throughout
Lebanon is so strong. However, while the two FPM candidates
and the Aoun-allied Shia candidate won by a sizable margins
in 2005, President Sleiman enjoys a support base in Jbeil and
has the potential to influence the elections there, tipping
balance away from Aoun.
6. (C) Despite pressure from March 14 members, Sleiman is
unlikely to form his own list, but could lend support to
independent candidates. Nazem Khoury, who served as
Sleiman's political advisor, resigned his position on
Sleiman's staff in order to run for a deputy seat in Jbeil as
an independent candidate. Khoury will be widely seen as
Sleiman's candidate even if the President does not publicly
endorse him.
7. (C) Disputes within March 14 over forming a list in Jbeil
could also affect the elections. A large number of Christian
March 14 members, including March 14 Secretariat SYG Fares
Suaid, are considering running. If they do not agree on a
single list and choose to run separately, they will take
votes away from each other, helping the Aoun forces, who have
been disciplined in forming their electoral list.
SISON
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: JBEIL
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (SBU) This is the thirteenth in a series of snapshots we
will produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the
run-up to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections.
2. (C) Jbeil (also known as Byblos) is a majority Christian
district with a significant Shia (19 percent) minority. Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun's list won the
district's three seats, two Maronite and one Shia, in 2005,
and the FPM remains popular. Any candidate allied with Aoun
can count on all of the Shia votes because of his alliance
with Hizballah, which Shia voters widely support. President
Michel Sleiman, born in Jbeil, could draw votes away from
Aoun by endorsing independent candidates, one of whom most
recently served as his political advisor. There is a
plethora of March 14 candidates, and an inability on the part
of March 14 to agree on a single list without acrimony could
help Aoun's list. End summary.
JBEIL: A BRIEF OVERVIEW
--------------
3. (U) The Phoenician city of Jbeil was named Byblos by the
Greeks, and the two names are used interchangeably today.
Many believe Jbeil is the oldest, continuously-inhabited city
in the world. A tourist destination, Jbeil is home to
several archaeological sites, including a crusader castle
dating to the twelfth century.
4. (U) Jbeil is a majority Christian district with a
significant (19 percent) Shia minority. (Note: Bint Jbeil
("daughter of Jbeil"),a predominately Shia district in
southern Lebanon, received its name after the Shia in Jbeil
escaped expulsion during the Middle Ages. End note.) There
are two Maronite seats and one Shia seat. All three deputies
are currently allied with Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
leader Michel Aoun. President Michel Sleiman is a native of
Amchit, a village in Jbeil.
FACTORS AT PLAY
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------
5. (C) Aoun (and his March 8 allies) remains quite popular in
Jbeil, with one poll indicating that his support is stronger
than in five other predominately-Christian districts. Aoun's
alliance with Hizballah means that any of his Christian
candidates can count on all of the Shia votes, since
Hizballah's influence in the Shia population throughout
Lebanon is so strong. However, while the two FPM candidates
and the Aoun-allied Shia candidate won by a sizable margins
in 2005, President Sleiman enjoys a support base in Jbeil and
has the potential to influence the elections there, tipping
balance away from Aoun.
6. (C) Despite pressure from March 14 members, Sleiman is
unlikely to form his own list, but could lend support to
independent candidates. Nazem Khoury, who served as
Sleiman's political advisor, resigned his position on
Sleiman's staff in order to run for a deputy seat in Jbeil as
an independent candidate. Khoury will be widely seen as
Sleiman's candidate even if the President does not publicly
endorse him.
7. (C) Disputes within March 14 over forming a list in Jbeil
could also affect the elections. A large number of Christian
March 14 members, including March 14 Secretariat SYG Fares
Suaid, are considering running. If they do not agree on a
single list and choose to run separately, they will take
votes away from each other, helping the Aoun forces, who have
been disciplined in forming their electoral list.
SISON