LEBANON: HIZBALLAH AND AOUN ARE CONCERNS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000278

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR A A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH AND AOUN ARE CONCERNS,
ARCHBISHOP AUDI AND PATRIARCH SFEIR TELL FELTMAN, SHAPIRO

BEIRUT 00000278 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a March 8 meeting with Greek Orthodox Archbishop
Ilias Audi, NEA Acting A/S Feltman, NSC Senior Director for
the Middle East and North Africa Dan Shapiro, and the
Ambassador heard Audi express his wish for an independent and
sovereign Lebanon, but also his significant doubts about the
future. A A/S Feltman emphasized that the purpose of his
trip to Lebanon was to bring a "basic message" that the Obama
Administration strongly supports Lebanese sovereignty, and
that U.S. engagement with Syria will not be at Lebanon's
expense.


2. (C) Audi expressed concern about a possible March 8/Aoun
victory in the June 7 parliamentary elections. He accused
opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun of "wanting to be
Syrian," without realizing he is being used by the Syrians
and his Hizballah allies in March 8. Audi noted Hizballah's
strength and deeper encroachment into Lebanon's multicultural
system. A A/S Feltman expressed the importance of a March 14
victory to help maintain the strong support for Lebanon in
Washington.


3. (C) In a separate meeting later the same day, Maronite
Patriarch Sfeir expressed concern about the outcome of June
elections, saying the opposition was working hard to win. He
noted that Christians were divided but said President Sleiman
was "managing" the opposing factions. Sfeir also highlighted
money flows into the country before elections. A A/S Feltman
asked Sfeir to spread the message to his Christian followers
that the U.S. supported Lebanon and U.S. rapprochement with
Syria would not endanger the U.S. strong support of Lebanon.
End Summary.

AUDI: WHERE ARE WE GOING?
--------------


4. (C) On March 8, NEA Acting A/S Jeffrey Feltman, NSC Senior
Director for the Middle East and North Africa Dan Shapiro,
and the Ambassador, accompanied by POLOFF and senior
political LES, met Archbishop Ilias Audi at his downtown
Bishropy. Audi quickly declared his gratitude for strong
U.S. support of Lebanon, but confessed that some feared the
Obama Administration's attempt to develop better relations
with Syria would come at Lebanon's expense. Audi said "the
neighbors" (Syria) are happy, but they still believe Lebanon
will come "under their umbrella." Audi was adamant that
Lebanon could govern itself, it appreciated freedom, and
"suffered" when not free.


5. (C) Audi, praising the multiculturalism and plethora of
universities in Lebanon, cautioned that Christian Lebanese
are wondering where the country is going. Referring to
Hizballah, he noted many Lebanese see its growing power on
the ground and are worried. A A/S Feltman expressed that the
U.S. shares the same fear adding, "We do not want Iran to own
Lebanon."

LEBANON 101:
THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR
--------------


6. (C) A A/S Feltman underscored the Obama Administration's
very strong commitment to Lebanon. "You have seen it through
U.S. action," he remarked, noting U.S. funding for the
Special Tribunal on Lebanon and support for the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF),noting LAF Commander Jean Kahwagi's
recent successful week long trip to the U.S. A A/S Feltman
said his and Shapiro's trip to Damascus was meant to send a
clear and basic message to let "Lebanon be run by Lebanese,"
and that even though groups will try to exploit U.S.
overtures to Syria as selling out Lebanon, the U.S. would
remain steadfast. Feltman explained that President Obama and
Secretary Clinton sent him to begin a "sustained and
principled dialogue" with Syria, but one not dedicated simply
to lengthy negotiating processes, but to results. Audi

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approved of the dialogue with Syria, but not at Lebanon's
expense, he emphasized. A A/S Feltman appealed to Audi to
speak confidently, in his "messages" of U.S. commitment to
Lebanon.

HIZBALLAH AND AOUN:
LOVE HIM AND LEAVE HIM
--------------


7. (C) On election outcomes, Audi professed that Lebanese
politics is conducted in "back rooms," and noted that
Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun wants to "be Syrian,"
and "have power anyway he can get it." Relating Aoun's
search for power and his alliance with Hizballah, Audi
believed Hizballah was using Aoun, and if March 8 took power,
Aoun would be tossed aside and "go to France." A A/S Feltman
asked Audi what could be done to prevent a sizable Aoun vote.
Audi had no suggestions, and recounted comments made to him
by Aoun supporters asking, essentially, who else do they have
to vote for?

ELECTIONS:


8. (C) A A/S Feltman spoke of difficulties in maintaining the
current level of U.S. support for Lebanon if March 8 wins. A
A/S Feltman expressed optimism over the election to Audi on
what he believed was a better organized March 14, but with
the election outcome too close to call, Audi responded "no"
to A A/S Feltman's question on Michel Murr, a Greek Orthodox,
possibly "delivering" the election to March 8. Audi was
unsure about the prospect of violence erupting before the
election if March 8 perceived it was losing.

DID I MENTION HIZBALLAH?
--------------


9. (C) Audi spoke dejectedly about Hizballah's power and the
"spaces in Lebanon where no one dares enter." He said
Hizballah was buying land, "little by little," and he
speculated that many Lebanese really wanted Hizballah to
stay. He cautioned that Hizballah is Iranian and uses the
Lebanese for its gain. Audi pondered how could Hizballah be
so strong as to not have been defeated by Israel in the 2006
war. Audi observed that during the war, Israel would bomb
Beirut or Jouneih, but it could not finish off Hizballah.
Shapiro asked if Audi truly believed Israel wanted Hizballah
to remain in power. Audi could only reply that what happened
in 2006 made no sense to him.

PATRIARCH SFEIR:
WHERE IS HIS VOICE?
--------------


10. (C) Audi countered A A/S Feltman's observance that
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir was good at crafting a message to
Christian voters on Lebanese sovereignty, saying Sfeir was
easy to attack by the opposition, and that Sfeir "really does
not say much." (Note: On March 5, a group of Lebanese
church leaders launched a charter calling for regulation of
political conduct in Lebanon. The document called for voters
to choose freely, candidates who are "ethical and qualified."
End Note.) In A A/S Feltman and NSC Senior Director
Shapiro's meeting with the Patriarch later that day, Sfeir
agreed to spread A A/S Feltman's message of U.S. support for
Lebanon.


11. (C) Sfeir was hesitant about the outcome of elections,
saying that "they" -- mentioning Saudi Arabia and Iran -- are
paying money to influence the results. A A/S Feltman
reiterated that Lebanese elections should occur without
interference, but the Patriarch opined that stopping Syrian
interference in elections was difficult.


12. (C) According to Sfeir, March 8 is doing "everything" to
win the elections. A A/S Feltman stressed that Hizballah and
Aoun were "putting Lebanon at risk." A A/S eltman noted
Lebanon's progress since his departre, including the
selection of a president. Sfeir said President Michel
Sleiman currently was "managing" the March 14 and opposition

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sides. Sfeir thanked A A/S Feltman and Shapiro for the
strong U.S support for Lebanon.



13. (U) NEA Acting Assistant Secretary Jeffrey D. Feltman and
NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa
Daniel Shapiro have cleared this message.
SISON