LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: KOURA

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000274

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: KOURA

SUMMARY
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1. (U) This is the twelfth in a series of snapshots we are producing
on key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to the June 7,
2009 parliamentary elections.


2. (SBU) Koura, with a population that is 65 percent Greek Orthodox
and 85 percent Christian, is expected to be the site of tough
competition for its three Greek Orthodox parliamentary seats. 2009
Doha redistricting drastically altered the demographics of this
previously Sunni-dominated district that swept three March 14
candidates to power in 2005. Political tension and recent incidents
of violence between opposing parties in Koura make the area a
potential hotspot during elections. The Syrian Socialist
Nationalist Party (SSNP) is very active here, raising concerns about
Syrian influence. The expatriate vote could also play a role. End
summary.

KOURA:
A BRIEF OVERVIEW
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3. (U) Koura district is dominated by large olive plains and local
olive cultivation produces some of Lebanon's best olive oils and
soaps. The city of Koura has developed into a bustling commercial
center boasting some of the country's best private schools.
Lebanon's highest literacy rate is among the residents of Koura,
many of whom travel to work in nearby Tripoli. There has been
significant emigration from Koura to the U.S. and Europe.


4. (U) Previously one of five qadas that were grouped together into
the North Two electoral district, Koura is a separate electoral
district for the first time in 2009. Redistricting in Doha had a
big impact on Koura. Previously, the Sunni majority in the larger
North Two electoral district determined who was elected as the
Christian MPs for the district. Now voters in Koura, 65 percent of
whom are Greek Orthodox and 85 percent of whom are Christian, will
elect three Greek Orthodox MPs.

FACTORS AT PLAY
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
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5. (SBU) Predictions differ over election results in Koura, with
analysts saying who March 14 chooses as its candidates will be
important in determining the final result. Intra-March 14
disagreement between LF head Samir Geagea and Kataeb head Amine
Gemayel probably will complicate the coalition's selection of
candidates. Contacts say LF member and incumbent MP Farid Habib is
unpopular in Koura and will likely lose if March 14 picks him as a
candidate again. March 14 Koura MP and Deputy Speaker Farid Mekkary
does not favor Habib. Mekkary and Nicolas Ghosn, who currently
holds the third seat, are popular in Koura and are expected to win,
but opposition and Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party (SSNP) member
Salim Saadeh could take Habib's seat in the district.


6. (SBU) Although exact numbers of emigrants from Koura living
abroad are unknown, the expatriate vote is likely to have an effect
on election results here. We have heard that March 14 and
opposition politicians are encouraging supporters to travel to
Lebanon to participate in the 2009 elections, but it is difficult to
predict who will benefit the most from emigrants' votes.


7. (SBU) Fueled by a politically tense atmosphere, clashes erupted
in Koura in early March between supporters of Samir Geagea's
Lebanese Forces (LF) and rival Suleiman Franjieh's Marada Forces.
Fatal clashes also occurred in late 2008 between the Syrian
Socialist National Party - very strong in Koura - and the Marada
Forces on one side against March 14 on the other. Similar incidents
could take place again. Additionally, links between Syria and the
SSNP and Marada open the door for Syrian interference in the
elections in Koura.

SISON