LEBANON: UNSCOL WILLIAMS WITH FELTMAN,SHAPIRO ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000271

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR A A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE SY IR IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: UNSCOL WILLIAMS WITH FELTMAN,SHAPIRO ON
1701, GHAJAR AND SYRIA

REF: GRANT-ROSE-IRWIN E-MAIL

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) On March 6, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon
(UNSCOL) Michael Williams provided a briefing for visiting
Acting A/S of State for Near East Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and
NSC Senior Director for Middle East and North Africa Dan
Shapiro. Referring to his upcoming meeting with the Security
Council on UNSCR 1701 on March 10, Williams said that
Hizballah weapons remain a concern and the possible presence
of SA-8 missiles in southern Lebanon could provoke a strong
response from Israel. He also asked A A/S Feltman and
Shapiro to consider language for a new statement from the
President of the Security Council (PRST) on 1701 (reftel) and
passed over draft text (post has sent to NEA, IO and USUN,
ref). In terms of the disputed town of Ghajar, Williams said
progress had been made at the technical level, but resolution
would also require political-level commitment from the
Israelis. Finally on Syria, Williams noted that there has
been little to show for his last three visits to Damascus,
and he described his last meeting with Syrian FM Muallim as
"tense." End Summary.


2. (SBU) In the UNSCOL offices in Beirut, Acting A/S Feltman,
NSC Senior Director Shapiro, the Ambassador, DCM, Pol/Econ
Chief and Special Assistant met with Michael Williams,
Special Assistant Salvatore Pedulla, Senior Political Advisor
Rami Shehadeh, and Lee O'Brien -- a Middle East specialist
from UN Headquarters.

1701: Hizballah will neither confirm nor deny weapons levels,
but complain of continued Israeli violations
--------------


3. (C) Beginning with a discussion of the most recent 1701
report, Williams said that Hizballah refuses to comment on
its levels of arms. A A/S Feltman asked why a line
addressing "concerns about Hizballah weapons upgrades" had
been left out of the last version of Williams' report.
Williams replied that there was simply nothing new to report
and he did not want to repeat the same language in report
after report. However, Williams is concerned about the
alleged presence of SA-8 missiles in southern Lebanon. "I've
told Hizballah that if they do have the SA-8s, Israel will
surely attack pre-emptively and the missiles could lead to a
dangerous escalation." In response, Hizballah officials
pointed out the consistent Israeli violations of the 1701
agreement, with specific reference to the continued
overflights. Williams and A A/S Feltman agreed there is
danger that Hizballah could shoot one of the planes down in
the name of "national defense and enforcement of 1701."


4. (C) Williams asked A A/S Feltman and Shapiro to review
draft language for a new PRST, saying that it had been more
than one year since the last Council statement on 1701 and it
would be useful to put some time-sensitive language on
Ghajar, the national dialogue, and the upcoming elections
into the record. He said the French likely would support a
statement. Williams also said that French naval forces had
decided to pull out of the UNIFIL's maritime patrols. "A
French admiral confronted President Sarkozy and said that of
the 2,000 ships that had been stopped and searched, not a
single weapon had been found." William said the French are
in the midst of an overall strategic review of their forces
and this could lead to even further reductions in the future.
Italy and Spain have confirmed their troop commitments to
UNIFIL.

Election may not be as critical for Hizballah
--------------


5. (C) Turning to politics, Williams believes that Hizballah
will not act provocatively before the June 2009 parliamentary
elections and indicated that it did not seek to use the Gaza
crisis as an excuse for dramatic action. "Hizballah did not

BEIRUT 00000271 002.2 OF 002


send people into the streets to protest, so the situation
remained manageable." Currently, Hizballah officials are
looking at election polling data and express confidence, but
Williams believes they must be slightly worried about losing
the Metn region to the prospect of combined defections from
the opposition by Michel Murr and the Armenian Tashnaq Party.
"March 8 appears to be losing momentum, but it will still be
an extremely close race." Williams said there may actually be
less on the line for Hizballah. "They've always been more
focused on long-term strategy and, no matter what happens in
June, they will still have their weapons and will remain a
force to be reckoned with in Lebanon."

Progress on Ghajar, but Israeli political support needed for
pull-out
--------------


6. (C) Williams said that UNIFIL Commander Graziano had
conducted serious and productive discussions on Ghajar with
senior Israeli contacts on February 8. The informal
consensus among his Israeli interlocutors seemed to be that
there was no case for continued Israeli military presence in
the town. However, this will all be viewed in the larger
context of setting a precedent for Israeli withdrawal in
disputed territories. Williams said a major legal review is
being conducted in Israeli to get clarity on this particular
aspect. In the meantime, technical discussions have produced
general agreement on a range of issues. "We just need a
political decision (from the Israelis)," said Williams.


7. (C) A A/S Feltman said that all attempts to get progress
from the Israelis on Ghajar should be matched with equal
effort to engage the Lebanese government and the
international community on arms embargo issues. Williams
regretted that the two LIBAT reports, which showed little
progress on Lebanese border security efforts, failed to
garner more attention.

"Syrians have been getting something for nothing for quite a
while"
--------------


8. (C) Williams noted that he has visited Damascus three
times since taking up his post in October 2008 and he has
determined that the Syrians are reluctant to have a real
discussion on 1701 or other serious issues. "Asad is also
quite annoyed with Sarkozy's recent pressure for progress. In
fact, Syrian FM Muallim told me he would delay the arrival of
the Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon for one month every time he
is asked about the issue." Muallim also flatly refused to
discuss with Williams the Palestinian military camps along
the Syrian-Lebanese border, saying the issue had nothing to
do with the UN. Williams pushed back, but got nowhere The
Syrians gave illogical excuses to Williams on why there would
not be rapid follow up on the joint bilateral border
agreement that had just been signed with President Sleiman,
Williams said.


9. (C) "The problem is -- they've been getting something for
nothing and nobody is holding them accountable for the
follow-up." A A/S Feltman and Shapiro assured Williams that
USG engagement with Syria would not advance without concrete
progress on issues of importance to the U.S., including non
interference in Lebanese affairs.


10. (U) NEA Acting A/S Feltman and NSC Senior Director for
the Middle East and North Africa Shapiro have cleared this
cable.
SISON