LEBANON: UNSCOL WILLIAMS WITH FELTMAN,SHAPIRO ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000271 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR A A/S WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE SY IR IS SUBJECT: LEBANON: UNSCOL WILLIAMS WITH FELTMAN,SHAPIRO ON 1701, GHAJAR AND SYRIA REF: GRANT-ROSE-IRWIN E-MAIL Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On March 6, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL) Michael Williams provided a briefing for visiting Acting A/S of State for Near East Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and NSC Senior Director for Middle East and North Africa Dan Shapiro. Referring to his upcoming meeting with the Security Council on UNSCR 1701 on March 10, Williams said that Hizballah weapons remain a concern and the possible presence of SA-8 missiles in southern Lebanon could provoke a strong response from Israel. He also asked A A/S Feltman and Shapiro to consider language for a new statement from the President of the Security Council (PRST) on 1701 (reftel) and passed over draft text (post has sent to NEA, IO and USUN, ref). In terms of the disputed town of Ghajar, Williams said progress had been made at the technical level, but resolution would also require political-level commitment from the Israelis. Finally on Syria, Williams noted that there has been little to show for his last three visits to Damascus, and he described his last meeting with Syrian FM Muallim as "tense." End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) In the UNSCOL offices in Beirut, Acting A/S Feltman, NSC Senior Director Shapiro, the Ambassador, DCM, Pol/Econ Chief and Special Assistant met with Michael Williams, Special Assistant Salvatore Pedulla, Senior Political Advisor Rami Shehadeh, and Lee O'Brien -- a Middle East specialist from UN Headquarters. 1701: Hizballah will neither confirm nor deny weapons levels, but complain of continued Israeli violations -------------- ¶3. (C) Beginning with a discussion of the most recent 1701 report, Williams said that Hizballah refuses to comment on its levels of arms. A A/S Feltman asked why a line addressing "concerns about Hizballah weapons upgrades" had been left out of the last version of Williams' report. Williams replied that there was simply nothing new to report and he did not want to repeat the same language in report after report. However, Williams is concerned about the alleged presence of SA-8 missiles in southern Lebanon. "I've told Hizballah that if they do have the SA-8s, Israel will surely attack pre-emptively and the missiles could lead to a dangerous escalation." In response, Hizballah officials pointed out the consistent Israeli violations of the 1701 agreement, with specific reference to the continued overflights. Williams and A A/S Feltman agreed there is danger that Hizballah could shoot one of the planes down in the name of "national defense and enforcement of 1701." ¶4. (C) Williams asked A A/S Feltman and Shapiro to review draft language for a new PRST, saying that it had been more than one year since the last Council statement on 1701 and it would be useful to put some time-sensitive language on Ghajar, the national dialogue, and the upcoming elections into the record. He said the French likely would support a statement. Williams also said that French naval forces had decided to pull out of the UNIFIL's maritime patrols. "A French admiral confronted President Sarkozy and said that of the 2,000 ships that had been stopped and searched, not a single weapon had been found." William said the French are in the midst of an overall strategic review of their forces and this could lead to even further reductions in the future. Italy and Spain have confirmed their troop commitments to UNIFIL. Election may not be as critical for Hizballah -------------- ¶5. (C) Turning to politics, Williams believes that Hizballah will not act provocatively before the June 2009 parliamentary elections and indicated that it did not seek to use the Gaza crisis as an excuse for dramatic action. "Hizballah did not BEIRUT 00000271 002.2 OF 002 send people into the streets to protest, so the situation remained manageable." Currently, Hizballah officials are looking at election polling data and express confidence, but Williams believes they must be slightly worried about losing the Metn region to the prospect of combined defections from the opposition by Michel Murr and the Armenian Tashnaq Party. "March 8 appears to be losing momentum, but it will still be an extremely close race." Williams said there may actually be less on the line for Hizballah. "They've always been more focused on long-term strategy and, no matter what happens in June, they will still have their weapons and will remain a force to be reckoned with in Lebanon." Progress on Ghajar, but Israeli political support needed for pull-out -------------- ¶6. (C) Williams said that UNIFIL Commander Graziano had conducted serious and productive discussions on Ghajar with senior Israeli contacts on February 8. The informal consensus among his Israeli interlocutors seemed to be that there was no case for continued Israeli military presence in the town. However, this will all be viewed in the larger context of setting a precedent for Israeli withdrawal in disputed territories. Williams said a major legal review is being conducted in Israeli to get clarity on this particular aspect. In the meantime, technical discussions have produced general agreement on a range of issues. "We just need a political decision (from the Israelis)," said Williams. ¶7. (C) A A/S Feltman said that all attempts to get progress from the Israelis on Ghajar should be matched with equal effort to engage the Lebanese government and the international community on arms embargo issues. Williams regretted that the two LIBAT reports, which showed little progress on Lebanese border security efforts, failed to garner more attention. "Syrians have been getting something for nothing for quite a while" -------------- ¶8. (C) Williams noted that he has visited Damascus three times since taking up his post in October 2008 and he has determined that the Syrians are reluctant to have a real discussion on 1701 or other serious issues. "Asad is also quite annoyed with Sarkozy's recent pressure for progress. In fact, Syrian FM Muallim told me he would delay the arrival of the Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon for one month every time he is asked about the issue." Muallim also flatly refused to discuss with Williams the Palestinian military camps along the Syrian-Lebanese border, saying the issue had nothing to do with the UN. Williams pushed back, but got nowhere The Syrians gave illogical excuses to Williams on why there would not be rapid follow up on the joint bilateral border agreement that had just been signed with President Sleiman, Williams said. ¶9. (C) "The problem is -- they've been getting something for nothing and nobody is holding them accountable for the follow-up." A A/S Feltman and Shapiro assured Williams that USG engagement with Syria would not advance without concrete progress on issues of importance to the U.S., including non interference in Lebanese affairs. ¶10. (U) NEA Acting A/S Feltman and NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa Shapiro have cleared this cable. SISON