LEBANON: PM SINIORA WARNS NEA ACTING A/S FELTMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000269 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR A A/S WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER UNSC LE SY IS IR SUBJECT: LEBANON: PM SINIORA WARNS NEA ACTING A/S FELTMAN THE U.S. SHOULD NOT ENGAGE SYRIA WITHOUT CONDITIONS Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora cautioned visiting Near Eastern Affairs Acting Assistant Secretary Jeffrey Feltman, NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa Daniel Shapiro, and the Ambassador against U.S. engagement with Syria without conditions. He believed Syria would always have two objectives: protecting the regime and maintaining a role in Lebanon. Acting A/S Feltman assured Siniora that the U.S. was committed to "sustained and principled" engagement with all countries in the region, including Syria and Iran. The U.S. objective, he said, was to raise concerns and work towards achieving goals, rather than to talk for the sake of talking. ¶2. (C) On Iran, Siniora argued that Iranian influence continued to expand and was partially helped by U.S. military actions in Afghanistan and Iraq. By taking on these burdens, the U.S. had effectively removed the buffers that had traditionally kept Iran's influence from growing, he said. Iran was also exploiting the Arab-Israeli conflict, and Siniora pressed the U.S. to find a solution soon. Acting A/S Feltman said the U.S. was committed to supporting initiatives that would bring a two-state solution. Siniora suggested Middle East Special Envoy George Mitchell should visit Lebanon in April or May to signal the importance of his mission and the important role of Lebanon in any solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. End summary. ¶3. (U) NEA Acting A/S Jeffrey Feltman, NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa Dan Shapiro, and the Ambassador met with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora at his office in the Grand Serail on March 6. Siniora senior advisor Roula Noureddine, NEA Staff Assistant, Pol/Econ Chief, and Poloff also attended the meeting. SYRIA -------------- ¶4. (C) Siniora told his visitors that Lebanon continued to pay the price for regional conflicts. Therefore, he did not support the isolation of Syria, he said. On the contrary, U.S. engagement with Syria would be good for Lebanon and was necessary to curb Iran's increasing influence in the region. Syria, however, was apt to "cash in" on the same product several times and would take only minimal steps to appease its interlocutors, he assessed. He cautioned the U.S. to approach its engagement with Syria without making any "advanced payment." ¶5. (C) Siniora suggested the U.S. and Syria should both define what is most important and establish measurable goals, such as progress on securing the Lebanon-Syria border. Naturally, he said, Syria would welcome greater contact with American officials, but the Syrians would always have two priorities in the back of their minds: protecting the regime and maintaining a role in Lebanon. Siniora advised that the U.S. should make clear that Syria's role in Lebanon must be positive, otherwise Syria could become a regional nuisance rather than part of the solution. Acting A/S Feltman said the new U.S. administration had made clear that Lebanon's sovereignty and independence were non-negotiable. ¶6. (C) NSC Senior Director Shapiro said he expected engagement with Syria to proceed slowly, unless Syria had significantly changed its orientation, which he doubted. He added that the U.S. does not give away anything by talking to Syria to raise its concerns, even if a U.S. ambassador was assigned to Syria in the future. Acting A/S Feltman concurred and added that the U.S. was not interested in talking with Syria just to talk. The new administration, he said, was committed to "sustained and principled" engagement in the entire region, to include Syria and Iran. ¶7. (C) An immediate concern, however, was reports that Syria was preparing to transfer SA-8 anti-aircraft missiles to BEIRUT 00000269 002 OF 002 Hizballah, Acting A/S Feltman said. If this were to occur, it could bring preemptive military action from Israel to Lebanon. PM Siniora said this should be a concern, but Lebanon was "at the receiving end." The GOL, he said, has no control over Hizballah, no control over the possible points of entry, and no control over Syria. IRAN -------------- ¶8. (C) Iran, Siniora said, was using Syria and taking advantage of the Arab-Israeli conflict to increase its regional influence, expand its borders outside of Iran, and "export the revolution." Furthermore, Siniora accused the U.S. of playing a role in this. He argued that the U.S. had assisted Iran by removing its historical headaches of Iraq and Afghanistan through U.S. military actions. U.S. actions had eliminated the natural buffers that have traditionally inhibited Iran's regional growth, he explained. ¶9. (C) Siniora worried that Iran's rhetoric portraying itself as the defender of Islam and the continued quagmire between Arabs and Israelis was pushing Shia and Sunni fundamentalists closer together. These extremists, Siniora lamented, were pushing the entire region backwards. ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE -------------- ¶10. (C) The PM intimated that time was becoming short to achieve a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Moderate Arab governments, he said, were beginning to question the value of their efforts, while Israel rejected the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative (API). Continued Israeli settlement building and the tense situation in Jerusalem pushed the region further towards radicalization, he continued. ¶11. (C) Acting A/S Feltman said Secretary Clinton's attendance at the March 2 Gaza conference was intended not only to show support for Gaza, but to send a message to the Arab world and Israel that the U.S. was fully committed to achieving a two-state solution. He acknowledged that the situation had become worse and worried that time was slipping away, but the U.S. was encouraged and supportive of initiatives, such as the API, that would bring the region closer to a solution. ¶12. (U) NEA A A/S Jeffrey D. Feltman and NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa have cleared this message. SISON