LEBANON: PRESIDENT SLEIMAN OFFERS NEA ACTING A/S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000266 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR A A/S WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER UNSC MARR MOPS IS IR SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: PRESIDENT SLEIMAN OFFERS NEA ACTING A/S FELTMAN HIS VIEWS ON DEALING WITH SYRIA Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a March 6 meeting at Baabda Palace with President Michel Sleiman, NEA Acting A/S Feltman and NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa Dan Shapiro stressed the Obama Administration's urgency for action on regional issues. They asked Sleiman his views on dealing with Syria before their March 7 trip to Damascus. Sleiman believed that Syria wants U.S. involvement in Israeli-Syrian talks, and that it could cooperate with the U.S on key policy issues such as Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, Lebanese elections and border security. On the possibility of "taking Iran out of the equation," Sleiman believed it "good" to distance Iran and Syria, and there was an opportunity for better relations between the U.S. and Syria despite Syria's relationship with Iran. ¶2. (C) Sleiman conveyed concern that in Lebanon's upcoming elections independent Christian candidates will not be strong challengers. He was confident that March 14 was strong, and cautioned that only through an "incident" or disturbance would more than two or three seats change hands. A A/S Feltman encouraged Sleiman to continue to be a voice of moderation, as he was at the January Doha meeting, by speaking up again for Arab reconciliation at the March Doha Arab League summit. Sleiman took Shapiro's assessment of Israeli concerns over the Syrian smuggling of SA-8 rockets to Hizballah in stride without offering a substantive response. End summary. NOW IS THE TIME TO ACT -------------- ¶3. (C) On March 6, NEA Acting A/S Jeffrey Feltman, NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa Dan Shapiro, and the Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met President Sleiman at Baabda Palace. A A/S Feltman stressed the Obama Administration's strong support for Lebanon. Noting that when he left Lebanon 14 months earlier, Lebanon was without a president, A A/S Feltman said there had been considerable political and economic progress since then. ¶4. (C) Responding to A A/S Feltman's request for advice on Syria, Sleiman underscored that problems could be solved without necessarily going through Syria, but it could play a critical role because of its local alliances. Sleiman mentioned that while Syrian President Asad might not admit involvement with Palestinian bases on the border or weapons smuggling, he could help in addressing the issues. Syrian cooperation was not out of the question, he noted. He added that the U.S. should not easily concede on important issues, and it should recognize that Syria wants a U.S. presence in its talks with Israel. ¶5. (C) Feltman acknowledged that the challenge of working with the Syrians will be to focus them "in parallel" with future Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. Sleiman reiterated his preference for U.S. involvement also in other talks between Syria and Israel, with Feltman assuring him, that "results in many areas" would be the bottom line of the relationship. Shapiro remarked that not meddling in Lebanese elections would be a good early indication of Syrian desire to work with the U.S. PROBLEM SOLVING REDUCES IRANIAN INFLUENCE -------------- ¶6. (C) Sleiman added that Lebanon benefits from U.S. involvement in the region, especially when there is so much discord among other Arab nations. He said without Arab countries providing solutions to problems, Iran had the opportunity to play a role. He noted it would be "good" if there was some distance between Syria and Iran, and mused "anything in politics is possible," when asked if it was possible to create distance between them. BEIRUT 00000266 002 OF 002 DOHA: SLEIMAN FOUND HIS VOICE -------------- ¶7. (C) A A/S Feltman praised Sleiman for his role in providing a voice of moderation at the January Arab meeting in Doha. Sleiman recounted that he felt "alone" in pressing for Arab solutions to Arab problems and pressing for discussion of the Arab Peace Initiative. A A/S Feltman underscored that moderate Arab voices needed to create the proper atmosphere to facilitate renewed Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, and he hoped Sleiman would again rally the moderate Arabs at the March Doha Arab League summit. ELECTIONS: NICE GUYS FINISH LAST? -------------- ¶8. (C) "Christians will not fight," Sleiman declared when asked about independent Christian candidates' performance in the June 7, parliamentary elections. He added, there are plenty of people to support a good independent Christian, but qualified candidates are not willing to come forward. He noted the district of Keserwan, north of Beirut, as one district where independent candidates are not working enough. (Note: Keserwan is the stronghold for Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun, and opposition figures currently hold all five seats. However, two pro-March 14 independent candidates, specifically former MP Mansour Ilbon and prominent businessman Nemat Frem, could take two seats from Aoun, although Frem remains adamant that he will not run. End note.) Sleiman surmised that maybe one of them "can find a place between Aoun and Geagea," but added there was no new candidate willing to make the campaign. ¶9. (C) Sleiman speculated on the overall election that both sides strongly believe they will win, thus, neither side wants to cause trouble or resort to violence during the run-up. He was confident that March 14 was strong, and cautioned that only through an "incident" or disturbance would more than two or three seats change hands. SA-8 ROCKETS A SERIOUS MATTER -------------- 10 (C) Shapiro warned Sleiman about Israeli concerns over the possible transfer of SA-8 anti-aircraft missiles to Hizballah across the Syrian border. He cautioned that the mere threat of Hizballah having the rockets could provoke an Israeli response. ¶11. (U) NEA Acting Assistant Secretary Jeffrey D. Feltman and NSC Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa Dan Shapiro have cleared this message. SISON