LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: BAABDA

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000264

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: BAABDA

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) This is the eleventh in a series of snapshots we
will produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the
run-up to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections.


2. (SBU) Baabda, the home of the Presidential Palace, is one
of the most confessionally diverse districts in Lebanon.
Christians hold a slight majority, although Shia and Druze
make up significant minorities. Analysts consider Baabda one
of the most critical districts for the March 14 coalition to
retain its current majority. In the 2005 elections, March 14
supporters and opposition Shia parties, Amal and Hizballah,
allied to deny Christian leader Michel Aoun's list of
candidates from winning. In 2009, however, Aoun's party is
allied with Hizballah and Amal, a fact that favors them. The
role of independent candidates and potential electoral
violence between Shia and Christian voters will also be
issues to watch in Baabda. End summary.

BAABDA: A BRIEF OVERVIEW
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3. (U) Historically, Baabda city was the capital of the
autonomous Ottoman Mount Lebanon and remains the capital of
the Mount Lebanon administrative province ("mohafaza").
Currently, Baabda district, home to the Baabda Presidential
Palace and several military installations, including the
Ministry of Defense headquarters in Yarze, is one of the most
confessionally diverse districts in Lebanon. Christians hold
a slight majority (55 percent),while Shia represent 23
percent and Druze, 17 percent. In the previous election,
Baabda was combined with Aley in one electoral district.
After the May 2008 Doha Agreement, Baabda and Aley became
separate electoral districts.


4. (U) There are six parliamentary seats in the qada: three
Maronite seats, two Shia seats, and one Druze seat.
Currently, three MPs are allied with the majority March 14
coalition. An MP allied with Hizballah holds one Shia seat,
while a true independent Pierre Daccache holds another. The
sixth seat has remained vacant since the 2007 assassination
of March 14 MP Antoine Ghanem because no by-election was
held.

FACTORS AT PLAY IN
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------


5. (SBU) Most analysts agree that competition in Baabda,
especially for the Maronite seats, will be critical to
determine which side wins the overall majority in
parliament. In the 2005 elections, an unlikely alliance
between March 14 partners and the opposition Shia parties,
Amal and Hizballah, narrowly defeated Michel Aoun's Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) candidates, despite FPM winning
almost two-thirds of the total Christian votes in Baabda.
However, the alliances have radically changed since then.
The current opposition alliance of Hizballah, Amal, and FPM
will make it difficult for March 14 to retain its seats if
its candidates are not well regarded by the electorate.


6. (SBU) Another important factor in Baabda is the
candidacies of independent candidates. Several independents
who are allied with March 14 have declared their intention to
contest the elections. These include Edmond Gharios,
son-in-law of Metn political powerbroker Michel Murr. It is
expected that all of the current MPs will also contest their
seats.


7. (SBU) Some analysts predict also that tensions between
Shia and Christian voters in the district could lead to
violence. The Chiyah area which separates the Hizballah
stronghold of the Dahiyeh (Beirut's southern suburbs) from
Christian neighborhoods in Ain el Roummaneh is of particular
concern.
GRANT