LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: KESERWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000258 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: KESERWAN Classified By: Charge d'Affaires William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) This is the tenth in a series of snapshots we will produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. ¶2. (C) Keserwan is the symbolic capital of the Maronites in Lebanon. Its population is 90 percent Maronite (and 98 percent Christian). Keserwan is the stronghold for Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun, and opposition figures currently hold all five seats from Keserwan. However, two pro-March 14 independent candidates, specifically former MP Mansour Ilbon and prominent businessman Nemat Frem, could take two seats from Aoun. End summary. KESERWAN: A BRIEF OVERVIEW -------------- ¶3. (U) Keserwan is one of six districts in the Mount Lebanon administrative area. It is home to Kaslik and Jounieh, two popular coastal cities. In Kaslik, one finds a yacht harbor, beaches, posh restaurants, and shopping. Jounieh is more of a commercial port, catering to shipping traffic and populated with warehouses. Tourist attractions include Casino du Liban and Harissa, a Maronite pilgrimage site. Bkirke, the seat of the Maronite Patriarch, is located in Keserwan. ¶4. (U) All five of the districts deputy slots are designated for Maronite Christians, which make up 90 percent of the population. Keserwan is the stronghold for Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun. He is an MP from this district, and Aoun allies hold the other four seats. FACTORS AT PLAY IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) The major variable is the role of independent Christians. Aoun will most certainly win his own seat again. Analysts predict that he could secure two or three other seats, if not maintain all five, depending on the independent candidates. In a February 3 conversation with Pol/Econ Chief, former MP Mansour Ilbon called Keserwan the "last line of defense," explaining that even if March 14 loses everywhere else, victory in Keserwan is symbolic because it is the only place Aoun personally could lose. ¶6. (C) Several independent individuals seen as friendly to March 14 have signaled their candidacy including Ilbon and former MP Farid Haykel El Khazen. Many of the pro-March 14 independents have been urging Nemat Frem, son of the late Industry Minister George Frem, to run. Ilbon, close to President Sleiman and allied with March 14, has been working hard and providing significant services for members of the Keserwan community. Similarly, Frem, a prominent businessman who has not yet committed to running, is also known for the work he has done for Keserwan. At least one observer has told us he thinks the Maronite Patriarch will convince Frem to run. ¶7. (C) The role of these independent candidates is pivotal. March 14 will not run candidates under the March 14 name since it is widely accepted that this would not help their candidacies in this district. If Ilbon and Frem (the most popular of the independents) do not run, analysts predict Aoun will win all five seats. If both men run, it is likely that they would win two seats, and Aoun's FPM would take the other three seats. GRANT