LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: ZAHLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000245

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: ZAHLE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) This is the eighth in a series of snapshots we will
produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to
the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections.


2. (SBU) Zahle is a confessionally diverse district with a
population that is 60 percent Christian, 25 percent Sunni and
14 percent Shia. It one of three electoral districts in the
Bekaa area. Of the seven parliamentary seats, six deputies
are currently allied with March 8-aligned and Free Patriotic
Movement leader Michel Aoun. The seventh deputy, MP Nicolas
Fattoush, is rumored to contemplate running on an Aoun list
in the upcoming elections. Agricultural Minister and MP Elie
Skaff is by far the most popular deputy by his own right,
irrespective of his alliance with Aoun. End summary.

ZAHLE: A BRIEF OVERVIEW
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3. (SBU) The city of Zahle is located between Beirut and the
Syrian border to the east. With a population of 150,000, it
is the fifth largest city in Lebanon and more than 85 percent
of its residents are Christian, primarily Greek Catholic. A
number of Iraqi refugees have resettled in Zahle.


4. (U) Zahle, on the Bardaouni river, is primarily an
agricultural community. The district is also famous for its
wine and arak industries and home to the popular Ksara
winery. Residents complain that nearly all of its youth
leave Zahle after graduation due to a shortage of employment
opportunities in the district.


5. (U) Of the seven parliamentary seats, there are two Greek
Catholic seats, and one seat each for the Greek Orthodox,
Maronite, Armenian Orthodox, Sunni, and Shia communities.
Currently, six deputies are allied with March 8-aligned and
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun, and the
seventh deputy, MP Nicolas Fattoush, ran on March 14 leader
Saad Hariri's list.

FACTORS AT PLAY
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------


6. (C) Agricultural Minister and MP Elie Skaff is by far the
most popular deputy and the head of the Zahle Popular Bloc,
which has four deputies (including Skaff) from Zahle. Skaff
is allied with Aoun in part because of a business dispute
with Saad Hariri regarding a loan Skaff obtained from the
Hariri-owned BankMed. The loan was repaid in 2007 following
a joint venture between Skaff and partners allegedly financed
by Hizballah. According to analysts, Skaff's popularity,
which he enjoys irrespective of how well Aoun is performing,
will not be significantly challenged.


7. (C) Armenian deputy George Kassarji, part of the Tashnaq
bloc and Skaff's ally, has recently publicly criticized the
Embassy of "interference" in the elections. (Note:
Kassarji's application for a tourist visa to the U.S. has
been denied twice because of his links to Hizballahs'
Al-Manar television station. End note.) Mayor Zoghaib
predicted that any movement by Tashnaq to ally with MP Michel
Murr (against Aoun) in the Metn district would not affect
alliances in Zahle -- Kassarji would remain allied with Skaff.


8. (C) Although lists of candidates have not been announced,
it is thought that March 14's most prominent in Zahle will be
Tourism Minister and Kataeb member Elie Marouni, but he does
not have a large following. MP Fattoush, previously on
Hariri's list, is rumored to be attempting to switch to the
March 8 list in 2009. Noting that "hundreds will run," Mayor
Zoghaib joked recently to poloff, "Every man has looked in
the mirror and determined they are the next deputy from
Zahle."


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