LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: MINNIEH-DINNIEH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000210 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: MINNIEH-DINNIEH Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) This is the sixth in a series of snapshots we will produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. ¶2. (SBU) Minnieh-Dinnieh, an impoverished and overwhelmingly Sunni district, is one of the seven electoral districts in the North Lebanon administrative area. The district's three parliamentary seats currently are held by parliamentarians allied with MP Saad Hariri's Future Movement, and analysts predict Hariri will win all three seats again in 2009. Hariri potentially will grant Jemaah-Islamiya (JI) a seat on his list in Minnieh-Dinnieh, but the group would operate as part of Hariri's bloc in parliament. Although Future Movement's dominance of this district likely will keep violence in check, the Nahr el-Barid Palestinian camp's location on district's edge remains a crucial wildcard. End summary. MINNIEH-DINNIEH: A BRIEF OVERVIEW -------------- ¶3. (SBU) According to a UNDP and Lebanese Ministry of Social Affairs study, issued this month but analyzing 2005 data, Minnieh-Dinnieh and neighboring Akkar constitute the poorest region in Lebanon. Unemployment and school drop out rates are also high. ¶4. (SBU) The confessional breakdown of the 92,000 registered voters is as follows: 84 percent Sunni, 15 percent Christian, and .06 percent Shia. Under the previous electoral law, Minnieh was one of five qadas merged into the North Two electoral district, and Dinnieh was one of the three qadas merged into the North One district. Under the redistricting plan agreed to in Doha, Minnieh and Dinnieh were merged into a single, non-contiguous electoral district for 2009 elections. ¶5. (SBU) Three Sunni parliamentary seats represent Minnieh-Dinnieh. Incumbents are Future members Hachem Alameddine (Minnieh) and Ahmed Fatfat (Dinnieh); Kassem Abdel Aziz (Dinnieh),a supporter of Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammed Safadi -- a Hariri ally in the current government -- holds the district's third seat. All three incumbents are expected to run in the 2009 elections. FACTORS AT PLAY IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) For the upcoming June 7 elections, analysts predict Hariri's Future Movement will face little competition and will take all three seats in this overwhelmingly Sunni electoral district. Numerous individuals have declared their candidacies in Minnieh-Dinnieh, however, and Hariri -- to avoid splitting the vote -- will have to pay them to drop out or to instruct their supporters to vote for Future's candidates. Our interlocutors assess Hariri may accept Asad Harmouche, a candidate from the moderate Sunni Jemaah-Islamiya group, on his list in Minnieh-Dinneh. ¶7. (SBU) Future's dominance in this Sunni stronghold will minimize the possibility of violence. However, the Nahr el-Barid Palestinian camp is located on the border between Minnieh and the neighboring Akkar, and that is a possible source of tension. GRANT