LEBANON: AOUN WITH STAFFDEL CAMMACK -- WE'LL SEEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000207

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN WITH STAFFDEL CAMMACK -- WE'LL SEEK
NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Opposition Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel
Aoun told visiting Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer
Perry Cammack that he believed the bilateral relationship
between Lebanon and Syria was on the right path. However,
finding a resolution to other regional issues, including the
Arab-Israeli conflict and the fate of Palestinian refugees,
was of greater concern to the stability of Lebanon.


2. (C) Aoun was confident that FPM candidates would be
successful in the June 7 parliamentary elections in several
predominantly Christian districts, while he was still
negotiating with his ally, Speaker of Parliament Nabih
Berri's Amal party, over candidates in mixed Christian-Muslim
districts. Aoun said FPM's relationship with its other ally,
Hizballah, had improved following the December/January Gaza
crisis. Aoun confirmed that his alliance, if successful,
would seek a national unity government after the elections.
He also outlined several challenges and priorities for the
next government, including empowering the ministries and
moving ahead with profit-generating projects to rebuild the
Lebanese economy. End summary.

AOUN POSITIVE ON
SYRIA, OTHER REGIONAL
ISSUES MORE TROUBLING
--------------


3. (C) Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun told
visiting Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer Perry
Cammack, accompanied by the Ambassador and Poloffs, that he
believed Syrian President Bashar Asad was "open-minded" and
made positive signs about Syria's relationship with Lebanon.
During his December 2008 visit to Syria, Aoun said he had
good talks with Asad and noted that the speech Aoun made to
university students was broadcast live on Syrian television,
uncensored. Meeting Cammack at his residence on February 16,
Aoun commented that if Lebanon had problems to solve, it was
with "our adversaries, and not our friends."


4. (C) However, on other regional issues, Aoun was less
positive. He said finding a comprehensive solution to the
Arab-Israeli conflict, Palestinian issues and water issues
were most important for the stability of Lebanon. Aoun
feared that ongoing disputes, especially regarding the fate
of Palestinian refugees, could not only destabilize Lebanon,
but "completely change Lebanon's demography." Aoun implied
that a demographic shift would be most detrimental to
Lebanon's Christian population. Solving the Sheba'a Farms
issue was a lesser problem, he said, because it was "only a
piece of land."

FPM'S ELECTORAL
OUTLOOK
--------------


5. (C) Aoun was confident about the success of FPM's
candidates for parliamentary seats in several
predominantly-Christian districts, despite some disagreements
with his ally, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri's Amal
party, to form candidate lists in certain districts for the
June 7 parliamentary elections. Aoun said he was "not
worried" about FPM candidates in the districts of Koura,
Zgharta, Batroun, Jbeil (all mostly Christian),and in Baabda
and West Bekaa-Rachaya (mixed Christian-Muslim) districts.
In Jezzine, Aoun said he was still negotiating with Berri,
while in the Metn, he said he would wait for local political
powerhouse Michel Murr to "stop maneuvering" before he would
react. As for the Armenian Tashnaq Party, Aoun said he
believed Tashnaq was allied with him and not with Murr.


6. (C) When asked about the relationship between FPM and its
other ally, Hizballah, Aoun replied that the 2006 MOU signed
by the two parties was "the most important thing." He

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characterized Hizballah's decision not to interfere in the
December/January Gaza crisis as a "plus for the
relationship." Hizballah, he said, was smarter and easier to
work with than majority leader Saad Hariri's March 14
coalition. He accused March 14 of having "hegemonic
tendencies" and was only interested in power for itself.
Meanwhile, he argued, Hizballah was interested in sharing
power which enabled the two sides to sign a ten-point MOU in
2006, while still negotiating other issues of disagreement.

AOUN CALLS FOR NATIONAL
UNITY AND REFORM IN
THE NEXT GOVERNMENT
--------------


7. (C) Following the parliamentary elections, a national
unity government would be a necessity, Aoun believed. If the
March 8/Aoun alliance won the elections, it would pursue a
national unity government with its March 14 opponents, he
confirmed. However, he said it would be up to Hariri whether
to participate.


8. (C) Aoun was critical of the current government,
especially President Michel Sleiman, claiming it had few
achievements to show for its seven months in office. For the
next government, Aoun outlined several priorities for reform,
including revitalizing the power of the ministries and
deconflicting the role of the Council of Ministers (the
cabinet) and the Parliament. Aoun said he would also support
moving forward with proposed infrastructure development and
profit-generating projects to revitalize the economy, such as
the building of dams, improving the electrical grid, and
revitalizing now-defunct oil refineries.


9. (C) Another challenge for the next government to deal with
would be to create a "national system of defense" whereby
Hizballah's fighters and weapons, as well as other militias
and local people, would be integrated into the national
security services. This would preserve "the resistance," but
such a force would only be activated in a time of
"occupation," he argued. Realistically, he said, this plan
would require time because the "climate of confidence"
between the political factions does not currently exist, but
should be an important goal.
GRANT