LEBANON: AOUN'S ALLIES DEFEND HIS VISION, PLEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000205 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN'S ALLIES DEFEND HIS VISION, PLEAD FOR BETTER RELATIONS WITH USG REF: A. BEIRUT 141 ¶B. BEIRUT 140 ¶C. BEIRUT 124 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a series of meetings with the Embassy in recent weeks, opposition Christian MPs from Michel Aoun's Change and Reform parliamentary bloc were calm, focused, and confident about their prospects in the June parliamentary elections. They rejected the concept of "independent" or "centrist" candidates, claiming those candidates represented a blatant effort by March 14 to challenge Aoun for Christian support (and adding that it is impossible for a candidate to be "independent" in an Lebanon's political system). They viewed the budget and wiretapping controversies currently occupying the GOL as politically motivated and emblematic of Lebanon's flawed political system. They complained about continued USG "isolation" of Aoun, noting that Aoun had spoken in support of Lebanese dialogue with ISRAEL and this is another reason the USG should engage with him more. We confirmed with Aoun's media rep that this referred to Aoun's December 22, 2008 comment to the press that "We don't mind mind direct negotiations with ISRAEL if Syria is at the same table". End Summary. CALM AND LOGICAL -------------- ¶2. (C) In meetings with the Ambassador and DCM between February 5 and February 15, opposition members of Michel Aoun's Change and Reform bloc conveyed a quiet confidence about their ability to compete and win in the June 7 parliamentary elections. All presented logical explanations for Aoun's popularity and their individual strengths in certain districts. Greek Catholic Elie Skaff (leader of the Zahle bloc, an ally of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement) explained that his family's long political experience in his home district of Zahle would help him carry the district, especially among Muslim voters. Ibrahim Kanaan, Maronite MP from Aoun's party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM),said Aoun's list in the Metn, including himself, Greek Orthodox Ghassan Mukheiber, and Greek Catholic Edgard Maalouf, was a stronger slate with a better track record than any list independent Greek Orthodox Michel Murr could put together. And Mukheiber stressed that the parliamentary bloc's work on issues the people care about, such as corruption and transparency, would carry them forward on election day. INDEPENDENTS: "SAME PEOPLE, DIFFERENT ADDRESSES" -------------- ¶3. (C) All the opposition Christian figures dismissed the idea an "independent" political movement in Lebanon. They pointed out that the only candidates running as "independents" were Christians running in districts where they would take away support from Aoun, and that these figures' political tendencies were well-known -- and were essentially pro-March 14. "Aoun is criticizing the independents because they are just the same people with different addresses," said Skaff. He claimed the independents are funded by March 14 leader Saad Hariri, and noted that March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt had openly supported "independents" in Baabda. ¶4. (C) Kanaan asked what platform the independents were proposing that would justify their being called "independent." "There is no vision at all in Lebanese politics, but they are independent? Independent of what?" exclaimed Kanaan. Mukheiber echoed this sentiment, saying, "In a system of no-issue politics, there is no center." He added that when Michel Murr proposes an "independent list" in the Metn with two Greek Orthodox candidates on it, he is trying to "kick me out of parliament." Independent equals competition to the Aoun bloc, he stated, and Aoun's public BEIRUT 00000205 002 OF 003 statements critical of the independents merely made that clear. WIRETAPPING/BUDGET CONTROVERSIES: POLITICAL POSTURING -------------- ¶5. (C) The Aoun bloc members portrayed the ongoing budget (Ref A) and wiretapping (Ref B) controversies as entirely politically motivated. Mukheiber dismissed them as "the noise of the electoral period," while Skaff saw them as an attempt to "sabotage the elections." Kanaan interpreted the budget battle over the Council for the South as a means for the rival blocs in cabinet to seek leverage on long-awaited judiciary appointments. While he said the Change and Reform bloc called for the closure of the four major patronage funds of the GOL -- the Council for the South, the Fund for the Displaced, the Higher Relief Council, and the Council for Development and Reconstruction -- and their replacement by a Ministry of Planning, he expected the majority to strike a compromise by which the Council for the South would receive its funds and the majority would insist on appointing "judges who should not even be clerks" into the judiciary. WHY IS AOUN POPULAR? -------------- ¶6. (C) The MPs presented a justification for how Aoun draws his popularity among the Lebanese, particularly Christians. They present him as a defender of the Christians, a hero for some, who has fought both foreign powers and other confessions internally to protect Lebanon's Christians. Contrary to the claims of our March 14 contacts, Ibrahim Kanaan claimed that by making trips to Iran and Syria, Aoun proved he was not beholden to those countries, by pushing forward with his vision of Lebanon after his return. "He opened the door," said Kanaan, "but was not swallowed by it." Several opposition contacts, from Kanaan to Tashnaq's Hagop Pakradounian, noted that Lebanese Christians have "paid" for foreign decisions about their fate, most notably "the U.S.-Saudi-Syrian decision to have Syria take over the country," as Pakradounian put it. Aoun's supporters see him trying to protect them from a similar fate in the future. ¶7. (C) Meanwhile, the leaders claim, though Aoun allied with Hizballah, he has the independence to act according to the needs of his constituency. They cited FPM Telecom Minister Gebran Bassil's assertion that he cut illegal phone lines in the Hizballah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, and Aoun's December announcement that he would support participating in direct talks between Syria and ISRAEL as examples of his independence from Hizballah. In addition, the MPs insisted that Aoun's disagreements with Amal's Nabih Berri over which of them should name candidates for Christian seats in the mixed Shia-Christian district of Jezzine would benefit Aoun (and not hurt the alliance). Aoun will be seen again as defending the Christians, insisting that he choose Christian candidates, rather than letting his Shia ally do so, they declared. ¶8. (C) The Change and Reform members also caimed Aoun's ambitious legislative reform progra (Ref C),presenting a variety of social initiatives, has won him appreciation from potential voters, as have his attacks on corruption. Skaff noted that Aoun's calls for the closing of the patronage funds strike a particular chord with Christians who feel the Muslims have taken all the spoils of the corrupt system for too long. U.S. ENGAGEMENT: SAME GOAL, DIFFERENT APPROACHES -------------- ¶9. (C) Mukheiber and FPM MP Farid Khazen both made impassioned arguments for increased U.S. engagement with General Aoun, pointing out the areas where Aoun's supposed platform aligns with U.S. policy: anti-corruption, transparency, and good governance, not to mention acceptance of talks with Israel. Mukheiber claimed that Aoun's objective is identical to the U.S. objective -- disarmament BEIRUT 00000205 003 OF 003 of Hizballah -- but that Aoun had chosen a different approach. "This majority did not deliver on Hizballah. If they hadn't failed, you wouldn't be looking for something in the 'center,'" he said, referring to a potential independent candidate list for the elections. "They failed, let us try." He pleaded for the U.S. not to reject Aoun just because of his alliance with Hizballah, noting that Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt had allied with the party for electoral purposes in 2005. ¶10. (C) Moukheiber and Khazen also claimed that the USG should take note of Aoun's support for direct talks between Lebanon and Israel. We followed up with Aoun's media office and learned that they were referring to Aoun's comment on December 22, 2008 that "We don't mind direct negotiations with ISRAEL if Syria is at the same table". He said this shortly after Israeli PM Olmert called on Syria to resume Turkish-mediated talks between ISRAEL and Syria. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) While the Aoun bloc's arguments may not always be convincing to us, they are always well-presented, and one can see how an average Lebanese Christian could be swayed by such claims. Aoun's MPs assert that his 2006 MOU with Hizballah was a way of "reaching out" to the Shia in Lebanon. "If you have a better way to deal with Hizballah, tell us", they argue. We view it, however, as Aoun's blatant electoral opportunism rather than a sincere attempt to solve the problem of Hizballah's arms. Meanwhile, Aoun's reform and anti-corruption platform appeals to many Christian voters. In addition, Aoun's Christian base is a fiercely loyal one, not only because some consider him a war hero, but also because they see the only other Christian alternative as Samir Geagea, a still-conroversial, March 14-allied, former civil war miltia leader (the other prominent March 14 Christin leader, former President Amine Gemayel, commands only a modest following). The elections in Christian districts will be close, and Aoun's electoral machine and messaging is formidable. End comment. SISON