LEBANON: SENATOR KERRY AND PM SINIORA DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000203 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR I/O PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV LE IR SY IS WE SUBJECT: LEBANON: SENATOR KERRY AND PM SINIORA DISCUSS REGIONAL POLITICS Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a February 18 luncheon with Senator John Kerry, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora expressed Lebanon's desire for engagement with Syria, and support for U.S. engagement, on the condition that Syria recognize Lebanon's sovereignty and deliver on previous promises. He assessed that the Iranian revolution led to the spread of radicalization across the region. Though he said Iran retains considerable clout in Lebanon through its relationship with Hizballah, he believed the economic situation in Iran might force it to reduce its financial support. He posited that Israel's behavior, particularly with the Palestinians, has also increased radicalization across the Muslim world, and he encouraged the U.S. to push its ally to cease counterproductive military actions and settlement expansion. Siniora stressed the importance of international observers in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Lebanon, and said that while the election would not result in a landslide, March 14 was confident that it had the support of the people. ¶2. (C) Senator Kerry assured Siniora that Lebanon's sovereignty would not be sacrificed in any U.S. engagement with Syria. He pointed to the appointment of former Senator George Mitchell as special envoy for the Middle East Peace Process as evidence of a renewed and serious commitment to peace between Israelis and Palestinians. End summary. ¶3. (C) Senator John Kerry, accompanied by his wife Teresa Heinz Kerry, Ambassador, and DCM, lunched with PM Siniora and his wife Houda at the Grand Serail February 18. Information Minister Tariq Mitri, Siniora advisor Rola Noureddine, Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffers Frank Lowenstein and Perry Cammack, as well as LCDR Greg Kausner and PolEconOffs, also attended the luncheon. "THE SYRIANS ARE TOUGH -- LIKE THE MERCHANT OF VENICE" -------------- ¶4. (C) Siniora explained to Senator Kerry that Lebanon has suffered throughout its history from attacks on its sovereignty, culminating in Syria receiving a "mandate" in Lebanon from "the external powers" in 1976. The difficulty now, he said, is in convincing Syria that Lebanon is now truly independent: "The Syrian regime does not believe in our independence -- and I understand why, after thirty years. But they just have to get used to it." Siniora said he was in favor of U.S. engagement with Syria, but on the proper terms, with no "advance payment." Kerry asked what deliverables he should demand from Syria when he travels there. Siniora listed them rapidly: control of the borders, closing the Palestinian military camps on the border, delineation of the borders (particularly Sheba'a Farms), return of Lebanese detainees held in Syria, and appointment of a Syrian ambassador to Lebanon. ¶5. (C) Siniora warned that the Syrians are tough negotiators -- "like the Merchant of Venice" -- but believed they were willing to talk now because of their concern over increasing coordination among Shia and Sunni fundamentalist groups, something that could be a threat to the Syrian regime. He noted that Syrian President Bashar Asad had reached out to Saudi Arabia, but was rash in denouncing the Arab Peace Initiative, and then had to backtrack. "I hope he gets better with maturity," commented Siniora. ¶6. (C) Senator Kerry said he and his Senate and Congressional colleagues were clear that any engagement with Syria would under no circumstances be at the sacrifice of Lebanon's sovereignty. He clarified that he advocated engagement not as a reward for bad behavior, but because he believes lack of engagement works to the disadvantage of the United States. He added that he hoped Asad would interpret U.S. outreach "responsibly." BEIRUT 00000203 002 OF 002 IRAN: EXPORTING REVOLUTION -------------- ¶7. (C) Siniora assessed that the 1979 Iranian revolution began a period where Iran "hijacked" the causes of the region, portraying itself as the only defender of the weak in the name of Islam. This effort to export the revolution, he claimed, has led to radicalization across the region. Nonetheless, he believed Iranian regime's approval of the candidacy of former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami in this year's presidential elections signals a recognition by the regime that the people of Iran are dissatisfied in the face of financial ruin. Meanwhile, said Siniora, there are rumors that Hizballah, through which Iran retains considerable clout in Lebanon, may be preparing for the drying up of Iranian funding, given the economic situation in Iran. "SPARTA WAS A NUCLEAR POWER" -------------- ¶8. (C) Siniora described the feeling of defeat and resentment toward the West in much of the Muslim world, and said the most vivid representation of this was the plight of the Palestinians, something that is "in the heart of all Muslims." He declared that despite all the international efforts to resolve the crisis, the fact that Israel continued -- with U.S. support -- brutal military attacks on Palestinian civilians and settlement expansion in the West Bank has caused the resentment to accumulate, radicalizing the people. He also noted the mistakes he claimed the Israelis had made in Lebanon, invading in 1982 in an attempt to destroy the PLO, only to "plant the seeds of Hizballah," and attempting to destroy Hizballah in 2006, only making them stronger. ¶9. (C) Siniora stated that such Israeli behavior also serves to discredit Arab moderates, as demonstrated during the recent Gaza crisis, when Iran successfully attacked the Palestinian Authority and the Egyptian government, sapping their credibility and calling them Israeli collaborators. He warned that Israel's tactics were not helping the cause of peace. He was incredulous at Israeli rejection of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, remarking that it offered a chance of peace for Israel with every Muslim nation in the world. ¶10. (C) Senator Kerry responded that the new administration in Washington is committed to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He pointed to the appointment of George Mitchell as special envoy to the region as evidence of the USG's seriousness, and he noted that his colleagues in the House and Senate, many of whom had been working on Middle East issues for years, understood the issues and were ready to engage constructively with both sides to bring about peace. "THE PEOPLE ARE COMMITTED TO OUR VISION" -------------- ¶11. (C) Kerry asked Siniora how the U.S. could be helpful in ensuring the success of Lebanon's June parliamentary elections. Siniora stressed that the U.S. should support the democratic will of the people, helping to ensure transparency through international observers. Senator Kerry pledged to follow up. Siniora confirmed that March 14 would ally with independent candidates for the election, and was confident about the alliance's prospects. "It will not be a landslide," he said, "but we are hopeful." He noted that the February 14 rally marking the fourth anniversary of Rafiq Hariri's death had been a big success, saying, "It is clear the people are committed to our vision." ¶12. (SBU) Senator Kerry did not have an opportunity to clear this cable. SISON