LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: SIDON

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000200

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: SIDON

SUMMARY
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1. (U) This is the fourth in a series of snapshots we are
producing on key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up
to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections.


2. (SBU) South Lebanon is divided into two "muhafazas"
(administrative areas): Nabatieh and South Lebanon. The heavily
Sunni city of Sidon comprises one of four electoral districts in the
South Lebanon muhafaza.


3. (SBU) Sidon has two parliament seats, both designated for Sunni
MPs. In 2005, the quadripartite agreement of Future Movement,
Hizballah, Amal, and the Progressive Socialist Party agreed to split
the district's seats between MP Bahia Hariri and her political
rival MP Ossama Saad in an uncontested election. Analysts say a
similar arrangement is possible in 2009, but if the election were
contested, there would be a risk of violent clashes between Hariri
and Saad supporters. The presence in Sidon of the large,
often-tense Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian camp adds to the concern about
electoral violence.

SIDON: A BRIEF
OVERVIEW
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4. (U) The Sidon electoral district is home to the largest city in
southern Lebanon. Lebanon's largest Palestinian camp, Ain
el-Hilweh, overlaps the city's limits. The district is
overwhelmingly Sunni (84 percent of registered voters) and home to
Sidon political stalwarts MP and Minister Bahia Hariri and MP Ossama
Saad. The two rivals agreed to run an uncontested list in 2005.
Hariri is the aunt of majority leader Saad Hariri and sister of the
late former PM Rafiq Hariri.

FACTORS AT PLAY
IN PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS
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6. (SBU) Analysts say a similar agreement between Bahia Hariri and
Ossama Saad is possible in this district in 2009, but no deal has
been solidified. For his part, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a
Sidon native, hopes a compromise is struck for 2009 elections.
March 14 Druze leader Jumblatt, on the other hand, has told us he
supports the idea of Sidon native and current PM Fouad Siniora
running for a seat, a stance that would lead to March 14 and March 8
to have competing lists in the district. Siniora, who is currently
not an MP, has not commented on the possibility.


7. (SBU) In the absence of a pre-determined electoral deal, Sidon
likely would be the scene of intense campaigning. Lebanon's Ain
el-Hilweh Palestinian camp, the largest camp in the country,
intersects Sidon both physically and socially. Camp refugees and
Sidon residents are intertwined through family times and other
social links; problems from the camp could easily spill into the
city. Frequent security incidents in the camp make violence in the
Sidon area a real concern for upcoming elections.

SISON