LEBANON: MICHAEL WILLIAMS SAYS SYRIANS "COCKY"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000196

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MICHAEL WILLIAMS SAYS SYRIANS "COCKY"
ABOUT LEBANON

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams,
UNSCOL Chief of Staff Jack Christofides, and UNSCOL POLOFF
Rami Shehadeh February 17 provided the Ambassador and Senate
Foreign Relations Committee Staff Member Perry Cammack with a
readout of Williams' February 12 trip to Damascus. Williams
described the Syrians as "cocky" and extremely confident
regarding their authority in Lebanon and their bargaining
position in any future talks with the U.S. The Syrians
argued UNSCOL had no role in resolving the situation of
Palestinian military camps in Lebanon. For his part,
Williams expressed concern about these military bases and
also about Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. He worried
that Syria, Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas would re-assert
themselves in the camps following the Israeli punishment of
Hamas in Gaza.


2. (C) Discussing UNIFIL and the LAF in southern Lebanon,
Williams noted that it would be helpful to increase awareness
that UNIFIL's role is solely to assist the LAF, not to
conduct independent patrols. Williams also commented that
some had agreed that the $350 million spent annually on
supporting the UNIFIL maritime fleet could be better spent
securing Lebanon's land border with Syria. End summary.

SYRIANS "COCKY" ON LEBANON
--------------


3. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams
February 17 briefed the Ambassador and Senate Foreign
Relations Committee Staff Member Perry Cammack, accompanied
by PolEconOff and PolMilOff, on Williams' recent trip to
Damascus. UNSCOL Chief of Staff Jack Christofides and UNSCOL
Poloff Rami Shehadeh also attended the February 17 meeting.
During Williams' February 12 visit to Syria, he met with
Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, Deputy Foreign Minister
Faisel Mikdad, and Vice President Farouk al-Shara. (Note:
Williams' February 12 trip was his third to Damascus. He
last traveled in January to accompany UN SYG Ban Ki-Moon.
End note.)


4. (C) Williams got the impression the Syrians would take
additional steps on Lebanon-Syria diplomatic relations,
including assigning an ambassador in Beirut in the next two
months, (i.e., not waiting until after the Lebanese
parliamentary elections). Williams assessed the Syrians were
waiting to use the absence of a Syrian ambassador in Beirut
as a bargaining chip in their dialogue with Saudi Arabia.
Explaining to Williams the delay in appointing an Ambassador,
Muallem said that "some people in Lebanon criticize us," a
reference to Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.


5. (C) On the joint Syria-Lebanon border committee, Muallem
was dismissive, said Williams. He noted that the 1945
agreement stipulates that the Deputy Foreign Minister chairs
the committee; he saw no need for Syria to appoint additional
representatives. Muallem claimed the PFLP-GC camps inside
Lebanon on the Lebanon-Syria border have "nothing to do with
the UN." Muallem cited the 1969 Cairo Agreement -- which the
Lebanese Parliament has since annulled -- to argue the border
camps were an internal Lebanese matter. Additionally,
Williams noted the GOL agreed in 2006 to disarm all
Palestinians outside the twelve officially recognized
Palestinian camps. (Note: The Palestinian military bases
are not included in the twelve officially recognized refugee
camps. End note.) When Williams raised the issue of weapons
transiting Syria to Hizballah in Lebanon, Muallem flatly
asserted that no smuggling occurred across the border.


6. (C) Describing the atmospherics of his meetings in Syria,
Williams assessed the overall tone was more negative than
during his visits to Damascus in November and January.
Williams noted the Syrians were "quite cocky" on Lebanese
issues. He assessed the Syrians were confident that they had

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the upper hand in potential future discussions with the
United States. The Syrians have "read the writing on the
wall" and expect talks with the U.S. to occur, Williams said.
The Syrians judge the "U.S. needs us more than we need them."

DEFMIN MURR WORRIED ABOUT CAMPS
--------------


7. (C) Williams also reported that Defense Minister Elias
Murr had expressed concern about security in the Palestinian
camps, in a meeting the day before. Williams said he shared
Murr's concern and was more worried about Lebanon's camps now
than he had been during the fighting in Gaza. Williams
suggested that Syria, Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas -- realizing
that Hamas had suffered a huge blow in Gaza -- may feel the
need to score a victory for their side by fomenting something
in the camps. An uprising in the camps would be a way for
Syria to exert its authority in Lebanon. Murr, during his
meeting with Williams, also noted the weapons that through
the Palestinian border base (Qoussaya) could end up in the
refugee camps.

"NO EYE" INTO BORDER BASES
--------------


8. (C) Williams asserted that the UN had "no eye" into
Palestinian military bases in Lebanon. The Nameeh base near
Beirut's airport is under Syrian control, Williams said.
Residents in the bases number in the hundreds, UNSCOL
assessed, but further details are a "black hole" for the UN.

UNIFIL AND LAF DOING WELL
--------------


9. (C) Williams provided Ambassador and Cammack with a
general assessment of UNIFIL and LAF performance in southern
Lebanon. Williams said both the Israeli and Lebanese sides
had expressed satisfaction, along with their complaints, to
UNIFIL. The Israelis want more patrols and less UNIFIL
reliance on the LAF, Williams said. However, UN requests for
more information from Israel, to help direct UNIFIL patrols
to suspicious areas, has been refused. Israel argued that
providing UNIFIL with data would be akin to handing the
information directly to Hizballah, which in Israel's opinion
has infiltrated the LAF.


10. (C) For his part, Williams said an increased awareness of
UNIFIL's role would be useful; UNIFIL's mandate is only to
assist the LAF. The LAF has done "better and better,"
Williams noted. The LAF now is "more seasoned" and
accustomed to their job duties. UNIFIL was pleased that the
LAF bolstered its troop numbers in southern Lebanon during
the Gaza fighting. Williams commented, though, that the LAF
had Hizballah's blessing for its operations.


11. (C) Discussion turned to the UNIFIL maritime force on
Lebanon's coast. Williams noted that some argued that the
naval force's yearly budget -- $350 million -- could be
better spent on Lebanon's porous eastern land border with
Syria. He assessed that the GOL needed a new border control
policy to encourage foreign donors to support the mission,
but opined that donors would, in fact, be interested in
helping the Lebanese secure the border with Syria.

COMMENT
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12. (C) We were struck by Williams' description of Syrian FM
Muallem's dismissiveness about discussing the Palestinian
military bases in Lebanon. We recommend that the continued
presence of these bases in Lebanese territory be added to the
agenda for any contacts with the SARG regarding Lebanon,
including Congressional visits. We find Williams idea on the
UNIFIL maritime patrol interesting and perhaps something
worth pursuing in discussions prior to the next UNIFIL
mandate renewal in the UNSC.

SISON