LEBANON: SINIORA -- WE WILL COMPLY QUICKLY WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000179

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA -- WE WILL COMPLY QUICKLY WITH
TRIBUNAL REQUESTS

REF: A. BEIRUT 00096

B. BEIRUT 00141

C. BEIRUT 00153

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Siniora on February 12 expressed GOL
intentions to comply quickly to all requests that may come
from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, including the transfer
to the Hague of the four incarcerated generals, if the STL
requests it. In a meeting with the Ambassador, visiting
USAID Special Assistant for the Middle East George Laudato,
USAID Mission Director and PolEconOff, Siniora said the
transfer "may or may not" require Cabinet approval, but he
expected few obstacles either way.


2. (C) On Saudi King Abdullah's Arab Peace Initiative,
Siniora suspected the Syrians were up to their "usual games"
of playing dueling sides off each other. Their goal is
getting the U.S. to agree to talks with Syria, he said.
Siniora doubted there would be a quick resolution to his
disagreements with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri over
funding for the Council for the South. He said the issue of
Lebanese detainees in Syrian jails might first be raised in
the Arab League, before the GOL raises the issue in the UN
Human Rights Commission. End summary.


SLOW-MOVING API
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador, following up on Siniora's readout of
the January Arab Economic Summit in Kuwait (reftel A),asked
about the status of Saudi King Abdullah's efforts to bring
Syria back into the Arab fold. Siniora said he expected the
Syrians were up to their "normal games" of playing opposing
sides against each other. In Siniora's opinion, Syria's goal
is to talk to the new U.S. administration; the Syrians were
using their closeness to Iran as a means to promote that goal.


4. (C) Siniora expressed dismay at the recent Israeli
election results, assessing that it was a "victory for
extremism" and a "real set-back" for the peace process. He
argued that Arab extremism would continue in the face of
Israeli extremism. He noted that the U.S. could mitigate the
situation by applying its influence in Israel in a calculated
manner.


5. (C) Regarding Lebanon's role in the path toward peace,
Siniora reiterated a message he said he had passed to
Secretary of State Clinton in their recent phone call that
Lebanon wanted a "seat at the table", not be a bargaining
chip "on the table." Siniora was unconcerned about recent
U.S. congressional delegations in Syria. The number of
visits is unimportant, he said; the content of the U.S.
message is what counts.

LOOKING INTO REQUIREMENTS FOR STL TRANSFER
--------------


6. (C) In a February 12 meeting with the Ambassador, visiting
USAID Special Assistant for the Middle East George Laudato,
USAID Mission Director and PolEconOff, Prime Minister Siniora
said it was not certain if the transfer of the four generals
detained in connection with the 2005 Rafiq Hariri
assassination to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)
required Cabinet approval. He said the issue was being
studied closely to determine what was required. However,
Siniora said he expected no obstacles in Cabinet to the
transfer, if Cabinet approval were necessary. Siniora
emphasized cooperation with the STL and said Lebanon would
comply with all requests it receives from the court.

DETAINEES IN SYRIA
NOT YET AN ISSUE FOR THE UN

BEIRUT 00000179 002 OF 003


--------------


7. (C) The Ambassador asked Siniora if he had considered
raising in the UN Human Rights Committee the issue of
Lebanese detainees in Syrian jails. Siniora said the GOL had
not done so, explaining that Lebanon would need to file the
complaint first with the Arab League before addressing the
issue in the UN. The GOL had refused an Arab league request
to lead an investigation into the assassination of former
Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri; it turned instead to the UN.
Siniora therefore believed Lebanon might address the detainee
issue first with the Arab League. However, detainees were
just one of many issues -- such as border demarcation,
smuggling, and Palestinian bases that would have to be
addressed.

LACKLUSTER ABOUT BUDGET PROGRESS
--------------


8. (C) Siniora was pessimistic regarding a potential solution
to his well-publicized disagreement with Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri over funding for the Council for the South (ref
C),a dispute holding up approval of the 2009 budget.
Siniora again blamed Berri for seeking more money than had
previously been agreed upon. Siniora blamed Berri for
"taking the whole country hostage" and demanding "ransom" of
increased funding for the Council for the South. The Prime
Minister rejected the idea of creating a Ministry of Planning
to replace the Council for the South and other such
development funds.


9. (C) On the possibility that Berri's position could delay
approval of the 2009 budget, Siniora nonchalantly replied
that "if there's no budget, there's no budget." Siniora
expressed exasperation at Berri's calls to abolish the Higher
Relief Council, saying that 99 percent of the Council's
funding goes to southern Lebanon, home of most of Berri's
Shia constituency. Claiming to defend the people of southern
Lebanon, Berri is in fact seeking to abolish a large source
of their funds, Siniora argued.

NO UNITY GOVERNMENT AFTER ELECTIONS?
--------------


10. (C) Siniora commented on the possibility Sunni leader
Saad Hariri would not form a national unity government if
March 14 wins 2009 parliamentary elections and Hariri is
selected as Prime Minister. Siniora cited his difficulties
as Prime Minister in the current national unity government as
evidence that such a formation often obstructs
decision-making. Siniora argued the basis of democracy is
majority rule. Although consensus is required at times,
progress is impossible if all decisions need a consensus, as
is effectively the case with a unity government, Siniora
said.


11. (C) He described the multi-confessional, democratic
nature of Lebanon as exemplary in the Arab world, but
insisted that if Lebanon were a true democracy, the majority
would be empowered to make decisions. A checks-and-balances
system is inherent in democracy; if the ruling majority
fails, the population will vote to remove them, he noted.

PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT KEY
--------------


12. (C) USAID Special Assistant for the Middle East Laudato
expressed optimism that USAID funding for Lebanon would
increase in the next year and expressed his commitment to
continue ongoing projects in the country. Siniora was
positive about the development of free trade zones in
Lebanon. Siniora hopes to increase private sector
involvement in the development of several areas in Lebanon.
Free zones would stimulate the economy and create diversity
without adding unnecessary competition. The GOL can only
provide the infrastructure, Siniora said, but the private
sector could capitalize on skills and needs in the country.
Siniora mentioned specifically areas for tourism, call
centers, and medical care centers. If you show people they

BEIRUT 00000179 003 OF 003


"have a share in the cake," he said, they then will have an
interest to protect it.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) We note that the issue of Lebanese detainees in
Syria, like so many issues in Lebanon, have been used by
various political actors to gain support. Opposition figure
Michel Aoun, in particular, had hoped to use the issue to his
advantage when he traveled to Syria, but he returned home
empty-handed. We hope that, unlike in the July 2008
Hizballah-Israel prisoner exchange, the GOL will get credit
if and when Syria releases the prisoners. End comment.

SISON