LEBANON: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: TRIPOLI

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000154

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C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT)
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: TRIPOLI

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) This is the first in a series of snapshots we will
produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to
the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections.


2. (SBU) Tripoli, once a vibrant and vital economic hub, is
one of seven electoral districts in the North Lebanon
administrative area. There are eight parliamentary seats for
the district in this Sunni stronghold, all of which are
currently held by MPs allied with majority leader Saad
Hariri's March 14 coalition. However, it is clear that the
four top political leaders in Tripoli (Hariri, Minister of
Economy and Trade Mohammad Safadi, and former PMs Najib
Mikati and Omar Karame) will all play a role in determining
candidate lists for both the majority and the opposition
parties for the June 7 parliamentary elections.


3. (SBU) Currently, analysts predict that at least one seat
will be won by an opposition candidate, and potentially one
other seat could go to an independent candidate. One of te
major factors that will affect the elections i Tripoli will
be how well violence is controlled in the event clashes
erupt, again, between rival communities. End summary.

TRIPOLI: A BRIEF
OVERVIEW
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4. (U) Tripoli, known in its glory days as the top industrial
and commercial city of north Lebanon, has experienced
economic decline after the closure of most factories, the oil
refinery, the main cargo railway, and airport. Tripoli's
population is predominantly Sunni, but significant minorities
of Alawites and Christians are registered voters there.
Tripoli is also very near to the Nahr al-Barid and Beddawi
Palestinian refugee camps.


5. (U) The distribution of Tripoli's eight parliamentary
seats is: five Sunni seats and one each for an Alawaite,
Maronite, and Greek Orthodox MP. Currently, all seats are
held by MPs allied with Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri's
March 14 coalition.

FACTORS AT PLAY
IN PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS
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6. (SBU) For the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled
for June 7, analysts predict that March 14 will likely retain
six seats, but will either cede or lose one seat to an
opposition candidate and to an independent. Interlocutors
tell us that the candidate lists for Tripoli will be
determined based on the ability of Tripolis top political
leaders: Hariri, Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad
Safadi (March 14),former Prime Minister Najib Mikati
(Independent),and former PM Omar Karame (pro-opposition),to
strike a deal. The results from Tripoli will be an important
litmus test of Hariri's effectiveness to reconcile the Sunni
factions there.


7. (SBU) Another factor will be the relative calm in
Tripoli's Jabel Mohssen and Bab el-Tabbaneh areas, where
several clashes occurred between the Sunni and Alawite
communities in the past year. In addition, worrisome rumors
abound in Tripoli that "someone" is providing weapons to
members of the community in exchange for votes and to incite
violence. Often, the opposition encourages these rumors in
an effort to discredit March 14, and Hariri, in particular,
but the other Tripoli leaders also have been named.
SISON