LEBANON: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: TRIPOLI

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000154 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: TRIPOLI SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) This is the first in a series of snapshots we will produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. ¶2. (SBU) Tripoli, once a vibrant and vital economic hub, is one of seven electoral districts in the North Lebanon administrative area. There are eight parliamentary seats for the district in this Sunni stronghold, all of which are currently held by MPs allied with majority leader Saad Hariri's March 14 coalition. However, it is clear that the four top political leaders in Tripoli (Hariri, Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad Safadi, and former PMs Najib Mikati and Omar Karame) will all play a role in determining candidate lists for both the majority and the opposition parties for the June 7 parliamentary elections. ¶3. (SBU) Currently, analysts predict that at least one seat will be won by an opposition candidate, and potentially one other seat could go to an independent candidate. One of te major factors that will affect the elections i Tripoli will be how well violence is controlled in the event clashes erupt, again, between rival communities. End summary. TRIPOLI: A BRIEF OVERVIEW -------------- ¶4. (U) Tripoli, known in its glory days as the top industrial and commercial city of north Lebanon, has experienced economic decline after the closure of most factories, the oil refinery, the main cargo railway, and airport. Tripoli's population is predominantly Sunni, but significant minorities of Alawites and Christians are registered voters there. Tripoli is also very near to the Nahr al-Barid and Beddawi Palestinian refugee camps. ¶5. (U) The distribution of Tripoli's eight parliamentary seats is: five Sunni seats and one each for an Alawaite, Maronite, and Greek Orthodox MP. Currently, all seats are held by MPs allied with Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri's March 14 coalition. FACTORS AT PLAY IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) For the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, analysts predict that March 14 will likely retain six seats, but will either cede or lose one seat to an opposition candidate and to an independent. Interlocutors tell us that the candidate lists for Tripoli will be determined based on the ability of Tripolis top political leaders: Hariri, Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad Safadi (March 14),former Prime Minister Najib Mikati (Independent),and former PM Omar Karame (pro-opposition),to strike a deal. The results from Tripoli will be an important litmus test of Hariri's effectiveness to reconcile the Sunni factions there. ¶7. (SBU) Another factor will be the relative calm in Tripoli's Jabel Mohssen and Bab el-Tabbaneh areas, where several clashes occurred between the Sunni and Alawite communities in the past year. In addition, worrisome rumors abound in Tripoli that "someone" is providing weapons to members of the community in exchange for votes and to incite violence. Often, the opposition encourages these rumors in an effort to discredit March 14, and Hariri, in particular, but the other Tripoli leaders also have been named. SISON