LEBANON: MICHEL MURR ON THE INDEPENDENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000148 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR I/O PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: MICHEL MURR ON THE INDEPENDENTS REF: A. BEIRUT 140 ¶B. BEIRUT 124 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a February 4 meeting, MP and self-styled independent list kingmaker Michel Murr told the Ambassador that he, and not his son, Defense Minister Elias Murr, would run for a seat in the Metn district in the June parliamentary elections. Murr appeared confident about his list's chances in the Metn, and said he was doing a better job of reaching out to the community and providing services than opponents from Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). He assured the Ambassador that he would not "give his seats" to Aoun, and denied that Elias' comments this week defending Aoun's son-in-law, Telecom Minister Gebran Bassil, which some had suggested demonstrated a Murr/Aoun alliance. In contradiction to most other forecasts, he projected victory for up to 14 independents across Lebanon in the elections. End summary. "I WILL BE THE CANDIDATE" -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by EconOff and Senior LES Political Advisor, called on Greek Orthodox MP Michel Murr at his office in Zalka February 4. Murr announced that he would run in the June 7 parliamentary elections in the Metn, and confirmed that his son, Elias, wanted to concentrate on his ministerial portfolio at the Ministry of Defense and would not run. (Note: Murr made a press announcement to this effect immediately following the meeting. End note.) Murr criticized FPM's Michel Aoun for his recent attacks on centrist candidates, and declared defiantly, "Aoun can scream all he wants, but we independents will move forward." ¶3. (C) Murr was confident about his electoral list for the Metn, which he said would include four independents (including himself),one Tashnaq Armenian (likely Hagop Pakradounian),and Sami Gemayel (son of Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel),leaving two seats open, one for March 14's Nassib Lahoud (who could not be included in the Murr list, lest it be tainted with two March 14 names),and one for someone else. Murr said he was pouring a massive amount of time and money into the district, much more than his FPM opponents. "WHY HELP AOUN WHEN I CAN WIN ON MY OWN?" -------------- ¶4. (C) Murr stressed he would not strike a deal with Aoun and "give up" the 7-8 seats he believed his candidates could win. He compared himself to Marada Party leader Suleiman Franjieh, who likewise will not place his candidates on Aoun's list in Zgharta, though he allies with him politically. "Why should I help Aoun when I can win on my own?" said Murr. He said PM Siniora had asked Elias about the content of Elias' meeting with Syrian President Bashar Asad during Elias' January 28 official visit to Damascus. According to Michel Murr, his son responded to Asad's question on a possible Aoun-Murr electoral agreement by saying, "I think that will be impossible for my father." Michel Murr was emphatic, jesting: "I will not give my seats to anyone... except Obama, and then only if he finds a solution to the Arab-Palestinian conflict." ¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked Murr about his son's defense of Michel Aoun's son-in-law, Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil, in the controversy over Bassil's enforcement of a wire-tapping law (Ref A). She noted that many were speculating the younger Murr's defense of Bassil suggested there had been a deal between the Murrs and Aoun. Murr said he planned to address this issue publicly and put to rest rumors of a deal. Elias Murr, explained his father, was acting in his role as defense minister, and had spoken "honestly" about the need to enforce the wire-tapping law; BEIRUT 00000148 002 OF 002 his defense of Bassil was not political. Meanwhile, said Michel Murr, "I am the candidate," and make local electoral decisions. ¶6. (C) Murr stressed his continuing contacts with March 14 leaders, including weekly meetings with Future Movement leader Saad Hariri (held late at night, since Murr said he does not circulate during daylight hours for security reasons). He sounded convinced that he and other independent candidates could win seats in Beirut, Zahle, and Baabda, as well as in the Metn, taking as many as 14 seats in the 128-seat parliament. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Murr's estimates of the number of seats his candidates could win in the Metn, as well as the number of independents who might be elected nationwide, are far higher than what pollsters predict. In a February 4 presentation to Embassy staff, Rabieh Haber, Director of Statistics Lebanon, predicted that Murr and Sami Gemayel would be the only winners from the Murr list in the Metn, with FPM and its allies taking the remaining six seats, just as they did in ¶2005. We find it significant that Siniora asked Elias Murr for information about the Defense Minister's meeting with Asad, and suggests the suspicion Siniora may harbor about the Murrs' political intentions. ¶8. (C) It is unclear if Murr really believes everything he says, or is telling us what he thinks we might want to hear. An experienced Lebanese political wheeler-dealer, Murr may yet surprise us with the direction his campaign takes. However, his public statement after the meeting with the Ambassador, saying, "We were the victims of our alliance with Michel Aoun," suggests he may have made up his mind for these elections, despite hopes Aoun may have entertained (Ref B). Nevertheless, that still leaves the question of what direction MIchel Murr will take the day after the elections. End comment. SISON