LEBANON UNPREPARED TO ADDRESS SHEBAA WATER ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001242 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019 TAGS: SENV PREL ECON PBTS PGOV LE IS SUBJECT: LEBANON UNPREPARED TO ADDRESS SHEBAA WATER ISSUES WITH ISRAEL Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Thomas F. Daughton for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Lebanese government officials argue that Israel's insistence on retaining the disputed Shebaa Farms stems not from border security concerns but from interest in water rights. Lebanese contacts opine that, given water shortages in the region and increasing worries that global warming and population growth will further strain existing water supplies, Israel is seeking to maintain its grip on its current water resources, including water that originates in Lebanon or Shebaa Farms. Roadblocks to implementing water-sharing agreements include determining which water sources are negotiable, delineating the border, and lessening Lebanese distrust of Israeli intentions. End Summary. LEBANON COMPARATIVELY WATER-RICH -------------- ¶2. (U) In the face of climate change and population growth, water resources, already scarce in the Levant, are becoming a crucial strategic concern. The internationally accepted threshold for water scarcity of 1,000 cubic meters per person per year is already unattainable for Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian territories, which receive 265, 169, and 80 cubic meters per person per year, respectively, according to a 2009 report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development. Only Lebanon and Syria )- with 1220 and 1541 cubic meters per person per year respectively -- exceed the threshold. However, Lebanon's water demand is expected to outstrip supply by 2015 as a result of climate change and population growth, the same report noted. ¶3. (U) Projections indicate that Lebanon and Israel's semi-arid climate will transition to arid as global warming progresses since the Mediterranean region, to which both countries belong, will be hit first. A 2008 report by the local NGO Arab Forum for Environment and Change predicted temperatures in the Middle East would rise between two and 5.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century. Shorter winters and longer, hotter summers will make water shortages common, the report predicted. LEBANESE WATERS BENEFIT ISRAEL -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The nexus of shared water systems, resource constraints, and regional peace negotiations will be a thorny issue, Lebanese interlocutors tell us. Lebanon's primary �0A;water experts, Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) Director General Dr. Fadi Comair and Chairman of the Litani River Authority (LRA) Dr. Salim Catafago, told us separately that the key issue in the disputed Shebaa Farms area between Lebanon and Israel is water. Both noted that the major water course in the Shebaa Farms basin, Wadi al-Assal, collects Shebaa Farms surface water and then empties into Israel's Dan River. Shebaa Farms )- covered in snow for about eight months per year -- is also rich in underground waters that feed the Dan River Basin, they said. ¶5. (SBU) In addition to Shebaa underground and surface waters that flow into the Dan River, Lebanon also feeds water to Israel through the Hasbani/Wazzani River. According to Catafago, the Dan River )- which has a small basin but a large discharge -- receives the bulk of the underground water from Lebanon's Hasbani/Wazzani River as well as nearly all its surface water. NO CLEAR BASIS FOR NEGOTIATIONS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Comair asserted that Shebaa Farms surface and underground water do not fall within the water system of the Hasbani/Wazzani and, therefore, the two resources should be addressed as separate issues in any future negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. Lebanon will insist on its share of the Hasbani/Wazzani water -) which flows above ground into Israel )- and should also demand a share in the Dan River, which is fed by Shebaa and Hasbani/Wazzani underground and surface water, Catafago said. Both water experts suspected, however, that Israel would push to keep all of the Dan. (Note: Negotiations between the UN, Lebanon and Israel in the 1990s discussed shares of the Hasbani/Wazzani River only. End note.) Additionally, contacts point out that delineation of the border between Lebanon and Israel is a prerequisite to talks regarding water rights. The ongoing BEIRUT 00001242 002 OF 002 dispute over whether Israel should negotiate the status of the Shebaa Farms with Lebanon or Syria illustrates the difficulties of even reaching the negotiating table. ¶7. (SBU) Agreeing upon a framework for discussions will probably be difficult as well. The 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses )- which might underpin negotiations -- covers only main water courses and underground water that returns as surface water, making it inadequate to address all Lebanese and Israeli water disputes, contacts say. Their main concern is the Hasbani/Wazzani underground water that does not resurface in Lebanon. An additional obstacle is that Lebanon acceded to the convention -- which has not yet come into force -- in 1999, while Israel has not. The UN's International Law Commission is currently working on a convention covering transboundary underground water that could provide a better framework for future Israeli-Lebanese discussions, contacts added. ¶8. (U) Disputes over water resources in the border region have led to tension between the neighbors in the past. In 2002 when Lebanon began building infrastructure to pump water from the Wazzani River to 60 communities in southern Lebanon, Israel threatened to shell the pipeline, arguing that the project was provocative and endangered the Israeli water supply. Then-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, and then-President Emile Lahoud backed the construction as a symbol of national pride, with Lahoud declaring that the water facility was "a second step in the liberation of the south," following the Israeli withdrawal in 2000. Lebanon and Israel raised the issue of pumping water from the Wazzani River at the United Nations, and international intervention was necessary to calm the rhetoric and prevent violence. LEBANESE UNPREPARED FOR NEGOTIATIONS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Despite growing understanding of the importance of water rights in the region, the Lebanese have done little to prepare themselves to negotiate water resources with Israel. Catafago bemoaned the fact that no Lebanese body of experts has been formed to study the issue since no Lebanese experts on the technical, geographical or engineering aspects involved even exist. In contrast, Israel is "working day and night," he claimed. ¶10. (C) COMMENT: Lebanese politicians, constantly distracted by domestic political issues, will likely focus on the issue of shared Israeli-Lebanese water only if talks between the two countries become imminent. Despite the concerns shared by a few local experts, Lebanon may well find itself starting from behind. DAUGHTON